Summary
"Below
you will find the commentary of what Ken expects in his daily
email, which he sends about 1/2 hour before the open.. He
will note the risk and predictability of each type of trade.
Over the years he has been amazingly accurate.. This email
is sent to all members each day. Below the commentary in
black type, you will find what actually did happen as a summary
in green type"
Date:
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 25, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly on the positive side this morning..
Durable goods orders came in nicely but the reaction was pretty
muted... The Market is in a pullback mode off the recent highs
and as such buyers were very scarce yesterday. The nets seem dead
since GOOG opened and if we get any action I would expect the
semis to lead.
BRCM was our weakest semi and when the market decides to turn
around and move up, it should do well so I will be watching it
carefully this morning... The percentages will be with shorters
who should be looking to enter early.. SINA is gapping up on the
ol Yahoo buyout rumor so due to the repetitious nature of the
news... It should be a good short..
BRCM did well and gave us a very
good indication the market was intent on climbing. It dropped
about 50 cents and climbed nicely +1.30.. The buying was very
broad and most sectors participated well.. SINA did much better
than I thought it would, participating with the market quite nicely....
Most of the selling was very minimal and the buying was good...
Even the nets did well as did the low risk stocks: INTC, CSCO,
NVDA, JNPR, MSFT... Moving up about 50 cents with minimal selling,
JNPR doing the best moving up over a dollar...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: DITC
Sector: Comm equipment
News: Swing to profits on rev increase..
Chart Snapshot: climbing off 15 from a bottom 7 days ago...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 18.25 to 22.91... This
gap is excessive... IT should be an early short and I would expect
a drop under 22... I will not be interested until I see some good
selling action and the market getting some reasonable buying...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
DITC was a very good short moving
down from 22.90 to as low as 20.56...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: SMTC
Sector: Semiconductor...
News: 2Q net up sharply as revs rise...
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent bottom off 16..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.63 to 19.10... I would
expect some selling down to 18.50ish so it would be an early short..
If it holds 18.80 it can move up over 20 but the percentage of
that occurring is only 20%,,, LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SMTC was a good early short moving
down from 19.20 to 17.91, plenty of room for profits...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 24, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
Good Morning!!! Glad to be back from my shortened vacation...
The Market appears to be responding to lower oil prices and climbing
off the recent lows.. The QQQ is well off the low off 32 and up
above 34... The futures are positive but the trading yesterday
was mixed with more action with the semis than the nets... I will
be watching QCOM, BRCM and KLAC for leadership with a potential
drag with the nets.. It seems that money is probably flowing into
GOOG, sucking some of the potential in the sector..
Several sectors ended yesterday with negative momentum so we may
be due for a small pullback before we go higher... Today I have
two news plays...
The day was definitely a pullback.
Usually during uptrends you will see some buying before the drop
but today was very disappointing for those seeking to go long.
The money was made by shorters doing so fairly early. The QQQ
dropped from 34.25 to 34.13 and popped back to 34.28 before diving
to 33.84.. BRCM led the pack down due to some negative comments
by a Broker.. QCOM popped 50 cents before dropping,, KLAC did
not pop at all dropping over a dollar...
POSS - Reduced outlook due to trial uncertainty,, So far there
is no support so I will be looking for a drop from the open but
should have a good bottom... Probably around 19.50 to 19.80...
This stock can make it back up to 21... MEDIUM RISK
POSS dropped pre open and dropped
from the open at 18.58 down to 18.24 where it popped to 19.55..
It was a very fast trade and difficult to enter..
BCRX - Orphan drug designation... This should be a low risk trade...
on a recent uptrend from Last Month at just above 4 bucks... The
current gap is up from 6.04 to 6.45.. I would expect this stock
to bottom around 6.20 and a potential climb to 6.75... LOW RISK
No one was interested in BCRX...
It dropped from the open at 6.40 down to 5.80 with a minimal bounce
of 20 cents off 6.....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 18, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is gapping down this morning as the negative momentum
from yesterday seems to be continuing. We have oil climbing to
47 a barrel and this will weigh us down today.. Refis are up 20%
so consumers are increasing their spendable income and is a mild
plus for the economy... We have a pattern of mediocre buying from
yesterday but today I am not expecting it to continue...
I think we will drop from the open today and the buying will be
a "watch and react" proposition... I am going to treat
the early lows as scalps and its possible to see multiple lows
before any real buying steps in... The semis should lead us down
along with TASR which is gapping up from another order report,
sigh...
It seems refis and consumers were
the winners today and the market climbed nicely!! I was thinking
that oil would weigh us down but the market threw me a curve,
which occurs from time to time. The QQQ climbed from the open
at just over 33 up to 33.90 where it ended the day.. Very nice
upward momentum.. The leaders were the semis and Kmart... KLAC,
JNPR, NVDA, BRCM .. the nets sold down before gaining traction
with ASKJ gapping down a dollar and selling down about 30 cents
before reversing.. It was a good day for the bulls...
LOW RISK
JNPR - If we see any buying, JNPR should move up but its not predictable
today... This stock would be a short around 21 and it should go
to 20.50 and if the market looks nasty... can go lower... LOW
RISK
JNPR moved straight up from the
open at 20.79 to 21.75... excellent upside..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: TASR
Sector: security weapons
News: New law enforcement orders,, 741K in orders
Chart Snapshot: Not bouncing with the market off the last lows...
its losing its momentum... Pretty flat around 26..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 26.34 to 28... Should
be a short and I expect it to drop to 27 at least... I would be
cautious going long on this stock... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
TASR weakened pre open dropping
from 28 and opening at 27.56.. It dropped to 26.80 where it found
support and climbed to 27.54.. so so momentum for such a bullish
day...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: NTAP
Sector: data storage
News: 1Q income soars 75%
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low around 16..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.39 to 18.56 .. I would
be interested in this stock around 18.. I think it can bounce
over 18.50.. LOW RISK
NTAP made it down to 18.20 where
it found support and climbed nicely to 19.84.. Much better upside
than I thought.... The whole day was better upside than I thought....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 17, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market appears to be continuing the momentum from yesterday...
Futures were up before the numbers this morning and after the
numbers the Market popped more... Looks like we should have another
repeat of what we saw yesterday... The nets are in the lead with
the semis close behind but we could see a reverse today and semis
take off...
I will be watching for unexpected selling with the stocks that
climbed the most yesterday which would be AMZN.. I would not expect
more than 50 cents in selling and we very well may see a lot less....
If we climb early it will be tough to jump on board.. I will watch
for any pullbacks and bottoms to nail, hopefully we will see some
rats jumping to give us time to enter...
The Market took off early again..
The QQQ moved up from 33.10, after a nice gap up, to 33.43 where
it pulled back to 33.10 and bounced again to 33.35... We ended
slightly up to 33.25 but the momentum looked negative as many
indexes ended the day below mid range.. AMZN moved up a dollar
before dropping back and was a decent top indicator... The overall
buying was mediocre at best...
LOW RISK
JNPR - I continue to like this stock for early performance...
I did not like the way it made two bottoms yesterday so it may
be losing its predictability so caution is advised... The current
gap is up from 20.37 to 20.65.. I would expect a pullback to around
20.50 but it should hold close to that low and move up to 21 and
can go over... LOW RISK
JNPR did well once again moving
up from 20.55 and moved up to 21.10... good tradin stock even
in a mediocre environment... and LOWWWW RISKKK...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NVEC
Sector: semi
News: Patent for new MRAM structure
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low around 29..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 31.66 to 40 which is excessive...
It can drop as low as 38 before buyers come in and it can also
run... if it runs over 41 it will probably hold 39.50 and climb...
watch and react... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
NVEC did not hold 39.50 and dropped
just under 38 and climbed to 40.17... It was really fast and if
you blinked you missed it... tough trade...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 16, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
Saudis seem determined to pump oil... which should bring the prices
down... Venezuela seems stable for the time being.... we should
rise today.... 75% in my opinion... I would not expect much selling
at the open and we should see early climbs.. On Friday we saw
a pop n drop day so we will need to be cautious and look for signs
of the same. The volume is very low and we are going to have a
fairly newsless week unless something occurs unexpectedly..
We are through most of the earnings and there is not much in the
way of economic news.. Tuesday is CPI , housing starts and Industrial
production.. Thursday is jobless claims... and that is it... Its
going to be slow trading so get an extra cup of coffee and stay
awake..
The early climbs on Friday were pretty mediocre, so I will be
looking for a top around 40 to 50 cents... We shall see... watch
and react..
The Market took off early and climbed
most of the day as we suspected. The QQQ moved up from 32.60 to
33.18... AMZN did the best between the semis and nets.. It took
off from 36 and moved up to 38.40... YHOO moved up over a dollar..
The semis did not quite do as well.. KLAC only moving up about
60 cents,, Same with NVLS and BRCM..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock continues to perform well when the market rises...
I would expect it to do well if buyers show up... Look for an
early climb and it to climb around 50 cents.... LOW RISK
JNPR climbed early from 20.10 to
20.45.... like many semis, so-so momentum.. It swung down from
20.45 to test the low at just over 20 again and climbed again
to 20.43 which is unusual for this stock..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 13, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is slightly positive this morning and inflation is
pretty tame.. The only problem I see is the trade deficit growing
which will be hurting the exporters... We have enough to worry
the market and the direction today is not predictable.. Oil is
still a concern and should weigh us down should it continue to
rise, so this afternoon lets watch the oil price.. After the initial
pops I will be looking for shorts....
Yesterday we saw a mediocre rise prior to a drop and I am going
to anticipate somewhat the same thing occurring today.. Pop n
Drop.. QCOM and NVEC should lead us UP... Also CECO and COCO did
well...
We had another pop n drop day as
we expected... The top came early in the first few minutes.. The
QQQ opened around 32.65 and climbed to 32.75 then dropped to 32.35...
One thing that was nice to see was the uniformity between the
semis and nets... KLAC, BRCM, AMZN, YHOO all popped then dropped
together..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I continue to like this stock as it climbs early and moves
up around 50 cents... The current gap is up from 20.20 to 20.45...
I would expect an early climb and it can go as high as 21... LOW
RISK
JNPR Moved up from 20.47 to 20.80
not quite making it to the 21...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: DELL
Sector: Computers
News: earnings in line, outlook is strong
Chart Snapshot: Steep slide from 35 the first of august down to
yesterdays low around 32.70...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 33.12 to 34.27... This
stock can climb over 34.50 and go as high as 35 in a nicely climbing
market... If she is going to 35 it will hold 34.. I would look
for a long position around 34... LOW RISK
DELL held 34 and climbed nicely
to 35.05 in spite of the dropping market...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: CSCO
Sector: Networking
News: Upgrade to overweight by Morgan Stanley
Chart Snapshot: Recent big drop based on earnings... from just
over 20.. down to 17.50 yesterday...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.79 to 18.14.. I would
expect to see 18 hold and it can climb over 18.50.... LOW RISK
CSCO did not hold 18, but dropped
from the open at 18.29 to 17.82 and bounced to 18.12...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 12, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative this morning but the futures are
improving on the retail sales and employment claims. July retail
sales were down more than what was expected but June was revised
up.. The market has a reason to drop and a reason to go up so
its going to be interesting to see if we can rebound again today...
Not predictable..
The leaders yesterday were the biotechs and Pharmaceuticals with
the nets close behind... The dogs were the semis... So that means
we will look for selling with the semis to guage the weakness
and watch the buying with the nets to guage the strength.. Hewlett
Packard disappoints and warns so that will no doubt weigh on the
techs again today...
Keep an eye on JNPR again today as this stock can climb early
as it did yesterday... It held up very nicely and is a low risk
stock.. Watch BRCM, if it manages to open above 29 we will probably
climb early...
The QQQ popped then dropped... moving
up from 32.70 to 32.86 then dropping to 32.55.. The early buying
was mediocre... the market attempted another rise moving back
up to 32.80 and dropped to a new low at 32.40.. Another stinky
day for the bulls.. JNPR did well again moving up from 20.40 to
20.90 before dropping...
BAD NEWS:
CYBX - PMA supplement not approvable by FDA.. So far this stock
has support off 13... It bounced early so I would expect 13 to
hold as support... The current gap is down from 23.90 to 13.30...
Watch and react,, should be worth nailing the first bottom after
the open... MEDIUM RISK
CYBX did well but failed to hold
13 pre open.. It moved down to 12.80 pre open then bounced and
opened at 13.65, dropped to 12.80 where it held and moved up nicely
to 14.60... Nice swing..
DIGE - Lowering views below wall streets expectations.. The current
gap is down from 32.02 to 24... Watch the pre open action and
I would expect the first bottom to be good... MEDIUM RISK
DIGE did not participate with the
upward action like CYBX and became a short at 22.30... It then
made multiple bottoms moving down to just under 20 where it bounced
to 22... Multi bottom dumper...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 11, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
CSCO has reminded the Market that all is not well in techy land
so we are seeing selling across the board.. funny thing is the
dow is selling as well, so the market is simply using CSCO as
an excuse to take money off the table... The nets were stronger
yesterday with the exception of ASKJ so I would expect some nice
pops in the early trading with YHOO and AMZN...
Leading the recovery in the semis in the early trading should
be BRCM since it is down about 2 dollars.. Normally we see early
buying with gaps down.. For lower risk give JNPR a try since it
is down a dollar and should rise early... The amount of buying
is not really predictable so I will be watching for general tops
by a decrease in pace...
The Market opened down and headed
down... Normally on big gap down days we see a pop on the gaps
down and then we go short but today we had very little opportunity.
The QQQ dropped from 32.86 to 32.55 and bounced back up to 32.91..
Later in the day it made it up to 33.03 and ended at 32.91 recovering
off the early lows. The pharmaceuticals and biotechs did very
well and bucked the trend.. The only stocks on my screen that
went up as expected were QCOM, JNPR... The Nets sold down a bit
but recovered much better than the semis... YHOO sold down about
20 cents and climbed early... AMZN sold down 80 cents before climbing
so it was a bit of a mix... BRCM opened 2 dollars down and sold
off another 2 bucks.. Very tough day trying to find the bottoms.....
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: CSCO
Sector: Networking and communication hardware
News: Earnings disappointment and downgrades today..
Chart Snapshot: Bottomed Friday after a two month downtrend from
24 to just under 20...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 20.46 to 18.90.. I would
expect a bottom anywhere from 18.50 to 18.80... so far there is
no support so it would be expected to drop from the open... I
will keep an eye on it prior to the open and see where buyers
gain interest... LOW RISK
CSCO dropped from the open as expected..
It moved down from 18.80 to 18.30 and back up to 18.50... pretty
blahhh......
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 10, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking positive this morning... We have decent
productivity numbers today and it is giving us a little boost..
Yesterday was somewhat of a resting day after some nasty downside
action. We seem to have washed out many sellers but buyers are
still leary to step in... We may see a repeat of that type of
action today, especially before the feds announce.. watch and
react...
Yesterday the buying did not occur until sellers took us down...
ASKJ sold down the most before bouncing so I will be watching
that stock again today... Lehman is coming out with some negative
comments on the semis and it may weigh them down today.. Faster
traders may want to go short early and see how far down they go..
The Market slowly climbed most of
the day.. The QQQ opened around 32.97 moved slowly up to 33.22,
dropped right before the feds announced to 32.97 and climbed back
to end at 33.42.. The early selling was less than we had seen
the day before and the Lehman comments did not weigh the semis
down as much as I would have expected on the sell side but the
buying was mediocre.... KLAC only dropped a dime before climbing
55 cents.. NVLS dropped 20 cents and climbed 40 cents.. BRCM dropped
20 cents and climbed 60 cents.. The nets did better.. YHOO climbed
from 26 to 27.20,,, AMZN climbed from 35.60 to 37.20.. ASKJ was
a strange one by not participating until after the feds announced
and it climbed from the days low at 23.76 to 24.85..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NVDA
Sector: specialized semi
News: stock repurchase plan
Chart Snapshot: big drop on bad earnings news recently.. long
downtrend from april at 27 down to 9.50 yesterday and attempted
to recover, ending above mid range..
Expectation: We should see some selling at least to 10.. The current
gap is up from 9.85 to 10.38... Should sell down to 10 where I
might be interested if the market looks good at the time for longs...
It would be a pretty easy early short down to 10 and can go lower...
LOW RISK
NVDA dropped from 10.48 to 10.22
where it slowly bottomed and climbed back up to 10.65... Not as
much selling as I expected...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: TASR
Sector: electronic weaponry
News: 4 new orders worth 724K...
Chart Snapshot: Downtrending from 49.. down to 26...
Expectation: This stock keeps getting this type of news, pops
then drops... The current gap is up from 26.63 to 29.40... It
will be an early short and should move down under 29... I would
not be interested in going long until I saw 28 to 28.50... If
the market intends to do well prior to the feds meeting, we will
see this stock move up off 28.80 and can go over 30.. MEDIUM RISK
TASR was a very good short moving
down as expected from 29.35 to 27.90 where it tested the bottom
twice and moved up to 28.90...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: DISH
Sector: communications network
News: decent 2Q earnings, share buyback and added 240K new subscribers..
Chart Snapshot: Long downtrend with support around 27 but no sign
of a turnaround..
Expectation: The gap is up from 27.26 to 28.15... I would expect
this stock to drop to 27.80 if it intends to do well, which is
iffy... It can go as low as 27.50 because the long downtrend can
drag this stock back down... I would want to short this stock
around 28.50.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
DISH held 27.80 moving up from 27.90
to 29.80, much better than I had expected.. It dropped down to
28.78... stronger than I would have expected due to the long downtrend
which normally brings in stronger selling...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 9, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning with the
S & P futures up 1.50 and the Nasdaq futures up 5.00 ... Do
we believe the positive indication and jump on board??? We certainly
do have compelling value as stocks hit some impressive lows on
Friday. The semis were dragging along all day long with very little
upward momentum and the nets were in the lead with ASKJ doing
the best with a multi dollar climb. The volume is also looking
mighty sparse so while we may have some buying, it is certainly
NOT enthusiastic...
If we intend to recover we should see stocks like KLAC, QCOM,
BRCM move up early with minimal selling.. Those will be my key
indicators and I will look for continued early strength from the
nets, ASKJ, YHOO, AMZN... For low risk consider jumping on JNPR
or NVDA.. I will be looking for highs to jump on shorts again
today... "Watch and React" environment again...
At 10:00am this morning we have the Wholesale Inventories report
due. Consensus expectations are for a reading of 0.6% . May provide
some movement.. <Gimmie> Friday COCO and CECO showed relative
strength all day, holding in the green while the market tanked.
And this morning, COCO is gapping positively on the Nasdaq most
active list. Should be ones to watch today, for long candidates.
The overall market remained very
narrow all day long... Opening around 32.82 and swinging up to
32.93 and down to 32.66. It remained within that range all day
long.. The semis did better than the nets.. BRCM opened around
32.40 dropped to 32.05 and climbed to 32.82.. KLAC remained fairly
narrow swinging from an early high at 38.90 down to 38.25 and
back up to 38.75.. ASKJ sold down 1.40 before bottoming and climbed
a dollar.. YHOO sold down 90 cents and climbed 40 cents.. AMZN
did the best dropping only 65 cents and climbing 1.40.. Our low
risk stocks did fairly well.. JNPR moving down 40 cents and climbing
65 cents and NVDA dropping 20 cents and climbing 55 cents... COCO
managed a 40 cent bounce and CECO climbed early moving up 1.40...
PCLN - *DJ CSFB Raises Priceline To Outperform From Neutral ...
This stock is gapping up from 18.40 to 19.15.. I would expect
selling down to 18.80 and a climb back up over 19 depending on
the market mood at the time.. LOW RISK
PCLN dropped to 18.50 before it
bounced... It made it back up to 19.10... the bounces were pretty
slow and difficult to time..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 6, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is very unhappy over the jobs report... It was a big
miss and we may see capitulation today... Lets watch BRCM and
KLAC today for an indication of what the market intends to do...
If the market recovers we shall see those two do well in the early
going. Normally when we see big gaps down we get early buying
so that is what I will be looking for...
Faster traders can buy BRCM, KLAC or NVDA near the open anticipating
some pops but we could dive,, tis possible even if low percentage...
We will definitely want to short the pops..
The QQQ stayed pretty flat for a
few hours moving up and down from 33.40 to 33.10.. After about
4 1/2 hours of this sidewinding action it broke out to the downside
under 33.10 down to 32.67 where it ended the day... It was another
one of those strange days in the early trading with the nets making
some fairly decent gains and the semis doing very little.. Later
on the nets finally joined the semis on the downside.. ASKJ did
the best, dropping from the open from 23.40 to 22.80 and climbing
to 25.10.. We caught the short at the high and saw it drop to
24.10.. Another tough day for the bulls...
NVDA - Bad earnings news, missed expectations... The current gap
is down from 14.56 to 10.80 with no real support so far... I would
expect this stock to be the best performer and should bottom around
10.50... Treat the trade like a scalp with a potential rise around
11.20 to 11.50... LOW RISK
The bottom on NVDA came under 10,
at 9.60 and it climbed back to the open price at 10.20... Value
shopping was not very good with the semis..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 5, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is slightly positive today and we may see a continuation
of the recovery type trading we saw yesterday. The semis were
in the lead and did the best.. I will be watching them for leadership
today but I expect the nets to catch up.. Yesterday we saw a pop
and drop then buying.. I am going to watch for something similar
today BUT we may not drop all that much if the recovery gets into
full swing.
I think you can go long early with the QQQ, SMH and expect a nice
swing UP today... The action may be slow so patience will be required..
Looking at the gaps right now it appears the nets are gathering
the most interest and may take over the lead today...
The Market did one of those "good
bye Charlie" drop all day, moves.. Going long early was a
stopper... I purchased the SMH and QQQ and due to my feeling we
would recover, held on and got stopped after giving up about 35
cents in profits.. sigh.. The QQQ never did much at all moving
down from 34.38 to 33.60 breaking under the previous support at
33.70... After some nice gaps up, the nets took a nose dive and
became the key indication we were in trouble.. Some semis climbed
in the early going, KLAC moving down 50 cents and up 80 cents,
BRCM moved up from the open at 34.40 to 34.90.. Others did nothing...
Bad day for the bulls...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: KIND
Sector: Long term care, healthcare
News: good earnings
Chart Snapshot: downtrending since the first of July....down from
27 to 23..
Expectation: The volume is low on this one so it may be a slow
mover... It is currently gapping up from 23.54 to to 25.81.. I
would expect selling to 25 and can go lower... I will be interested
in going long under 25 at some point depending on the market action...
MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
KIND fell slowly to 25.10... it
gapped higher to 26.50 made a very quick pop to 26.85 and dropped
to 25.10.. good potential on the downside...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: UNTD
Sector: Internet Software
News: disappointing earnings..
Chart Snapshot: Steep downtrend from June around 20 to yesterdays
low..
Expectation: IACI made two bottoms before climbing... so I would
expect UNTD to drop at the open... would be an early short probably
for faster traders.. It is currently gapping down from 13.85 to
10.94... so far no support... watch and react... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
UNTD was pretty blah dropping to
10.75 and moving up to 11.25...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 4, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative this morning as the market chooses
to focus on rising oil prices.. We have some negative comments
regarding YHOO by SCHB and the sector is looking weak.. Yesterday
the buying was bad and there is no guarantee we will see many
today... I think our highest percentage trades will be early shorts...
I would expect stocks to drop at least by 50 cents and if we see
them go under, it will probably be another bad day..
If we do see value traders today they will probably nail the nets
early so keep an eye on, AMZN, YHOO, and ASKJ... Its basically
going to be a "watch and react" day.. I think our best
potential today will be with the dumper IACI..
The early trading was about as I
expected as most stocks dropped around 50 cents but the buying
was better than we saw the previous day.. Most stocks fell the
expected 50 cents before climbing, like AMZN.. It dropped from
37 to 36.40 and climbed to 37.40... YHOO dropped 30 cents and
climbed 50 cents.. ASKJ moved down 70 cents and climbed 85 cents..
The semis popped a bit then fell, KLAC popped 60 cents, fell 80
cents and climbed 1.10... BRCM popped 50 cents, dropped 1 dollar
and climbed 1.60... NVLS popped 40 cents, dropped 60 cents and
climbed 1 dollar... The QQQ climbed from 34.15 to 34.33, dropped
to 34 and climbed to 34.45 and ended slightly positive...
BAD NEWS:
IACI - earnings disappointed the market and lowering estimates..
The gap is down from 27.03 to 21.60 and bouncing.... Now at 22..
We will need to watch and see if 21.60 holds support.. Our dumpers
have been selling down before they bounce so we will need to watch
and react.. I would guess this stock will bounce above 21... MEDIUM
RISK
IACI moved down from 22.30 to 21.65
and climbed to 23.30 for a very nice swing if you were able to
time it... It appeared to climb off 21.90 but faked us out and
made another bottom at 21.65... two bottoms are tougher to trade...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 3, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative this morning.. Oil is
at record highs and may start to weigh on the market again.. The
Market continues to try its best to maintain the uptrend from
the previous low.. Yesterday was fairly flat but I consider that
a positive in light of the terrorist alerts.. We should be watching
the gaps carefully to see if we will get any negative action at
the open..
I am not going to expect too much selling after the open but the
buying will probably be very picky with some stocks doing well
and others not so well... For low risk stocks watch JNPR and NVDA...
I think we can still get about 50 cents from these two once buyers
come on board...
Trying to go long was a difficult
situation as the market went down and kept going down. Bounces
were minimal.. Oil was weighing heavily on the market and buyers
were MIA (missing in action).. The QQQ climbed a hair from the
open up to 34.90 then dropped all day long and ended around 34.30..
We saw the key indications and went short, but we were off the
highs and had to short near the lows, which was tough at the time..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - This stock continues to give us 50 cents and gets very
little selling... The gap is up from 15.62 to 15.66 .. I would
expect this stock to rise around 15.50 and move to 16...
NVDA was a stopped trade, moving
down from 15.70 to 14.70 with no bounces worth mentioning...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: ADBE
Sector: software
News: Raising Guidance..
Chart Snapshot: Moving up from a previous July low around 39..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 41.97 to 44.. I would
expect this stock to hold 43.50 and climb to 44.50... If we see
it dip under 43.50 then it will probably not move over 44... LOW
TO MEDIUM RISK
ADBE actually cornered some buyers...
It moved from a low of 43.36 up to 44.30 which was very good considering
the day... The first bounce was from 43.50 to 44 before dropping
to 43.36 and up to 44.30.... two bounces..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: CALM
Sector: Farm Products
News: 2M share buyback authorized
Chart Snapshot: Flat for two weeks around 11....
Expectation: Since this stock has no momentum for the previous
two weeks... No one cares... The story is a weak one so this trade
will be more of a short... It is gapping up from 11.51 to 13.35
and should drop to 12.50 and can go a bit under.... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
CALM was a good short moving from
13.12 at the open to 11.90... Plenty of downside potential..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 2, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative due to terrorist fears.. The Global
markets hit the skids and it now appears we will be going down
as well... Homeland security warnings are specific to the financial
markets, and raised to orange. On Friday we opened slightly negative
and recovered with minimal selling meaning the market is not overly
nervous which means we may see another recovery from the early
lows.
Normally on gap down days we see early buying and that is the
possibility today as well... Look to the biggest gaps down with
no news to follow the early action. I would expect a pop and then
a drop, so shorting will be high percentage if we can time the
tops.. The semis and nets did somewhat the same on Friday and
I will be watching these two groups for leadership today...
We also have security stocks moving up (MAGS, IPIX, MACE) .. MAGS
reported good earnings.. Education stocks are moving down on COCO
warning and should see some recovery if we continue to see value
buying like we did last week.. The sympathy stocks may do the
best.... APOL, CECO
Once again the market recovered
from the early lows. The QQQ opened down around 34.60 dropped
minimally to 34.47 then climbed very slowly to 35.02.. The operative
word is still "recovery".. The semis were somewhat mixed,
BRCM did well moving down from 34.55 to 34.10 and climbing to
35.50... KLAC and NVLS dropped more than they climbed.. JNPR did
very well opening at 22.50, dropping to 22.30 and taking off to
23.10.. The nets were pretty flat.. ASKJ opened arund 28.80 moved
down to 28.30 and back up to 29,,, YHOO opened at 30.50 and slowly
dropped to 30.15 with no bounces until late in the day when it
moved off 30.15 to 30.50.. AMZN did the best.. opening at 38.45
and moving down to 37.80 and back up to 38.75... We continue to
see good recovery from the dumpers and weak stocks.. CECO moved
up from 28.50 to 30.30.. APOL moved up from 71.20 to 77.70.. COCO
moved up from 10 to 10.90...
LOW RISK:
NVDA - This stock has been performing nicely lately.. If the market
is going to recover again today we should see this stock move
up.. The current gap is down from 15.42 to 15.28 and should hold
15 and move as high as 15.50.. We should be watching and looking
for a short off the high.. LOW RISK
NVDA continues to do well.. It moved
up from 15.17 to 15.68...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NTMD
Sector: Drug Manuf.
News: Upgraded by Deutsch Bank with a 38 target..
Chart Snapshot: Up big off 6 and is not really pulling back all
that much... Its down from 19.60 to 15.80 where it is bouncing
and back to 17.50...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.48 to 21.20... The
gap is excessive and we should see some selling... I would say
that if this stock holds 20.50 it can move over 23 as high as
25... It moves fast and is for faster traders only or small shares
to control risk.. MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
NTMD held 20.50 easily.. It moved
up off 20.90 and made it up to 23.20...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: MAGS
Sector: security
News: Good Earnings and strong sector with the terrorist alerts...
Chart Snapshot: Slow downtrend from 23 from the end of May...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 16.24 to 17.25.. this
stock may climb as high as 18 but if it should hold 17 if its
going to... If it goes under 17 it will probably not go up over
17.50... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MAGS fell from 17.40 all day long
with no bounces... Made it to 15.50...
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: COCO
Sector: education
News: warns
Chart Snapshot: Big, steep downtrend from April highs at 36...
Trying to bottom around 18.50...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 18.72 to 11.90... So
far there is very little support but we are getting some very
good action with dumpers lately... APOL and CECO are both down
in sympathy... I would expect some buying with this group and
the first bottom will be worth persuing.... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
COCO made multiple bottoms, so trying
it off the first bottom was a stopper... it finally found support
off 10 and climbed to 10.90...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 30, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative this morning.. Yesterday
it held on to the gains from the recent lows which was a good
sign but with gaps down this morning its indicative of a negative
market today. Early shorts will be high percentage and we should
see key stocks dropping at least 50 cents such as, KLAC, NVLS,
BRCM, AMZN, YHOO.. ASKJ and TASR can each drop a dollar and all
of these stocks can go lower if we get a market dump.
I think we should be patient today and not go long til we actually
see buyers enter... Treat bottoms like scalps until we get a feel
for what the market intends to do...
The QQQ traded within a very narrow
range moving down from the open minimally and swinging up about
40 cents in the first hour and a half, then remained very flat
the rest of the day.. No real movement up or down.. There was
less selling than I expected and the market held up reasonably
well... The semis did well as did the nets, BRCM moving down about
40 cents and climbing 1.30,, KLAC had minimal selling and climbed
2.25,,, NVLS climbed 90 cents with minimal selling... AMZN climbed
1.10 with minimal selling,,, YHOO climbed 90 cents with minimal
selling as did ASKJ.. TASR moved up 1.40..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - this stock did really well yesterday and can do well again
today should the market rise... Its currently gapping down slightly
to 15.21 from 15.25.. I would think this would be worth a long
position off 15 as it can climb to 15.50 even in a flat to slightly
negative market... LOW RISK
NVDA did very well once again, moving
from 15.03 up to 15.70... It looked a little iffy in the first
10 minutes after the open almost retesting the early low but climbed
nicely for those who exercised some patience..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: GILD
Sector: Biotech
News: Profits up on HIV drug sales
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent bottom at 56 after a steep
drop the first of July from 67..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 59.50 to 64.57.. I think
the gap is excessive especially for a potential market dive from
the open... I think it will go under 64 as low as 63 before we
see an adequate bounce worth persuing.. I would guess it can make
it back up to 64.50 to 65..... MEDIUM
RISK
GILD dipped under 64 to 63.80 and
climbed nicely to 66.70... good swing..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: AIRT
Sector: Air Delivery and Freight
News: Good earnings report
Chart Snapshot: Up big yesterday from 12 to 16.20
Expectation: Looks like we have some front runners in this stock..
I would expect some selling and it would be worth an early short...
Its currently gapping up from 16.20 to 18.25.. I would expect
this stock to go as low as 17 before it bounces... depending on
what the market is looking like at the time... MEDIUM RISK
Shorting AIRT was a very good idea
as front runners hit it hard.. It moved down from 18.25 to 16
in the early going and went lower to end the day near 15..
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: MGAM
Sector: Gaming
News: lower than expected 3Q results..
Chart Snapshot: Trying to climb off a recent low above 23..
Expectation: I would expect this stock to have a good first bottom..
The current gap is down from 24.54 to 17.99... I have not seen
much support so this stock will probably dive from the open...
It would be worth an early short and it can go as low as 17 and
under... yesterday TARO dropped a dollar before it gained some
upward traction.. MEDIUM RISK
MGAM dropped pre open moving down
to 17.50 where it climbed very well, making it up to 19.80...
______________________________________________________
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 29, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking rather happy after a yesterday turn around.
It appears that the bottom we saw on Monday is going to hold..
The QQQ is capable of making it up to 35 today... As such we should
see minimal selling and early buying. Generally the stronger stocks
have been moving up early much like what we saw with CREE yesterday...
That is what I will be expecting.. If we do sell down ASKJ should
lead us down with the semis following... so keep a close eye on
ASKJ, KLAC, BRCM for leadership..
ASKJ dropped a dollar before climbing
which was not really indicative of a weak market due to recent
bad news.. KLAC and BRCM climbed about a dollar from the open..
AMZN also climbed a dollar with minimal selling and YHOO only
made it up about 50 cents.. The QQQ was rather flat opening around
34.70 and trading flat for a few hours before climbing from 34.55
to 34.92.. It then dropped back to 34.50 and bounced back to 34.90
later in the day...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock has been following the market action fairly
well and should rise early if the market is as I expect... It
is currently gapping up from 22.17 to 22.40... I would expect
this stock to rise off 22.20 to 22.30... Going under 22.20 will
be a negative indication for the market... I would expect to see
this stock climb to 23... LOW RISK
JNPR did not move down much or up
much... In the early action it moved down to 22.50 and up to 22.90..
Later in the day it moved off 22.50 again and bounced to 23.10..
It required some patience to get the most out of the trade....
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: SOHU
Sector: China Net
News: Good Earnings..
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low..
Expectation: the current gap is up from 17.75 to 20.50 .. I would
expect some selling and it should go under 20... I think this
stock can make it back up to 21 but the low can be around 19.50..
Its tough to figure how many sellers will be on this one... MEDIUM
RISK
SOHU dropped to 19.50 and climbed
slowly to 20.75.. good Trade..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: SONSE
Sector: Business software
News: Profit versus loss last year.. good earnings
Chart Snapshot: downtrending off a recent high at 5..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 4.34 to 5.50.. I would
expect this stock to drop to 5 and can go under... It would be
an early short and I would not go long until I saw it around 4.80
depending on how the market is looking at the time... It can go
back up to 5.50... LOW RISK
SONSE dropped under 5 as expected,
moving down to 4.97 and climbed back to 5.22..
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: TARO
Sector: Drug Manuf...
News: Missed earnings by a wide margin..
Chart Snapshot: Very steep downtrend from 48 in June down to yesterdays
low... No sign of buyers
Expectation: This stock is down big... Its gap is down from 30.08
to 18.93... I have not seen much support so far... I would think
it would bounce but so far it looks like it will dive from the
open... I will be looking for a bottom as it should do well once
the institutions get done with their exit... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
The bottom was great as it moved
off 18 after dipping from 18.90 at the open... It climbed from
18.90 to 24.45.. excellent upside potential...
______________________________________________________
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 28, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Operative word yesterday was "recovery"... Nets
led the recovery while semis were a drag... Will the recovery
continue??? Thats the big question... The Market is simply not
predictable, futures are slightly down and durable goods are less
than expected... We should see some selling at the open so early
shorts would be the high percentage play for faster traders...
We can dive to QQQ 34 again and might go under.
TASR and ASKJ are two stocks that generally sell down when the
sellers hit so I will be watching those.. SINA also dropped a
dollar yesterday before the buyers nailed it.. TASR has news where
they responded to the CBS news report and is gapping up nicely
which will help the shorts, TASR defending itself is the same
ol news...
The Market was looking pretty dismal
as stocks fell near the open.. Early shorts did very well as stocks
tumbled.. As I explained in class, selling was expected but the
buyers were expected to come back in anytime and so they did.
The QQQ fell from an early high of 34.50 down to 33.80 slowly
for 4 1/2 hours then WHAM, took off to the upside and made it
as high as 34.60... ASKJ sold down late in the day on earnings
reported during the market hours and fell from 30.70 to around
25.50 for an amazing dump. It then recovered back up to 28.50...
very nice swing.. TASR dropped as expected and bounced nicely
but SINA took off early with hardly any selling and moved from
24.20 to 26.50...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: CREE
Sector: Semi Equip
News: Sees 1Q net above views
Chart Snapshot: Nice rally yesterday from 18 to 20.75..
Expectation: I suspect we have some front runners so this stock
will be a short.. Its gapping up from 20.56 to 21.96... should
be a short and drop under 21.50... If it holds 21.50 it can pop
to 22.50... If the market dives it can go under 21 easily... LOW
TO MEDIUM RISK
CREE held up nicely while other
stocks were dropping so we closed the short and some traders reversed
and went long... It climbed from 21.80 to 23 for a very nice swing
up... It really paid off to notice key indicators and compare
the trade with the general movements..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: ZRAN
Sector: Semiconductor
News: Boosts Yr View
Chart Snapshot: downtrending with the market from 19 to yesterdays
low around 13.50...
Expectation: Gapping up from 13.95 to 16.05.. The gap is excessive
so this stock should be an early short above 16 and drop to 15.50
at least and can go lower depending on the market... I don't think
it will go over 16 much so consider going long if the potential
looks good, probably under 15.50.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK..
ZRAN did as expected moving down
from 16 down to 15.25 and bouncing to 16.60 late in the session.......
better than I expected..
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: CECO
Sector: education
News: record earnings but two downgrades.. tough to please everyone...
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low at 40...
Expectation: Currently gapping down from 44.50 to 39.90... This
stock can move down as I see very little support so far... I think
the first bottom will be worth +2 bucks, watch and react.. MEDIUM
TO HIGH RISK
CECO dropped quite a bit from the
open.. The apparent first bottom was stopped and it was difficult
to figure out how low it would go... It actually achieved a dumper
price (-20%) and bounced around 32.70 and made it up to 35.20..
Good swings if you could time the bottom...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: UTSI
Sector: Telecom
News: A2 net profit falls 21%
Chart Snapshot: Downtrend from 32 in June down to 25.. bottoming
last two days..
Expectation: The current gap is down from 25.25 to 21.15.. It
appears support is just under 21... We will need to watch this
stock as it may fall to 20 before gaining any traction... I would
be interested around 20 dollars... If it pops from the open...
short the pop, for faster traders... MEDIUM RISK
Shorting the early pop to 20.85
was a good idea as it dropped to 17.80 and bounced to 18.60...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 26, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is locked in a yo yo pattern, moving up and down with
the latest bit of news. Today should be an UP day in our yo yo
pattern and the futures are looking like that is going to be the
case. We are also seeing action developing very slowly and lasting
all day long, so if we do see buyers enter early, they may stay
with us most of the day..
Friday we dropped then popped before the sellers came in for the
remainder of the day... The pops were worth about a dollar on
our more popular stocks and I would expect the same thing today..
Semis and Nets both did well... Google just posted some nice ad
numbers so the nets may take off...
Keep an eye on NTMD.. this little bio stock has performed well
since the news about the stopping of its drug trial due to good
results.. The drug is only effective on afro-americans, so the
market is limited but still relatively significant.. Tough to
figure out how much this stock will move.. Watch and react..
The Market threw us another curve
and failed to keep the up and down, yo yo pattern.. The QQQ opened
around 34.20, climbed to 34.40 appearing like a recovery was happening
then, WHAM, down we went to 33.78 breaking under the 34 support.
We bounced 4 times off 33.78 up to 34 to 34.08 where we ended
the day.. Trying to find bottoms was very difficult because of
the wide mix in selling. The buying was mixed as well.. some stocks
giving us adequate bounces and some not... The best bouncers were:
ASKJ, KLAC, QCOM, NTMD...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I like this stock and I think it will be good enough for
at least 50 cents this morning, and can go higher in a nicely
climbing market... The current gap is up from 22.76 to 22.86..
I would expect buyers to come in early and expect this stock to
rise off 22.70 to 22.80 and move to as high as 23.50... LOW RISK
JNPR was very dismal, dropping much
more than expected with very minimal bounces.. Stopped
BAD NEWS:
ANDW, CHKP - Both of these are gapping down on earnings disappointment..
Watch for pre open support and consider buying the first bottom..
ANDW bounce was only worth about
40 cents and CHKP was worth a dollar...
GOOD NEWS:
ASKJ - Extends advertising relationship with google.. The stock
is gapping up from 28.32 to 30.10... This stock can sell down
quite a bit before getting buyers... its a watch and react kind
of trade.. it can go as high as 31 but if it does will hold 29.80...
If it goes under 29.80 it can go as low as 29 before bouncing
back to 30... MEDIUM RISK
ASKJ was wild, falling from 29.90
to 27.50 before it bounced, then did very well moving up to 30.20...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 23, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The big news is earnings.. MSFT and AMZN are taking us down again...
This is one skitzo market... Up big on Tuesday, Down big on Wednesday,
up moderately on Thursday and today its looking down... If we
do recover which in my opinion is a 60% possibility we will see
MSFT and AMZN recover... The nets are gapping down and should
climb first as they were the strongest sector yesterday...
Yesterday we saw some early buying.... then we dropped appearing
to hit the skids hard but true to the early indication, climbed
again to make new highs... Much of the same type of action can
occur today.. Its going to be very interesting and we will probably
get a clue if we start to see the gaps strengthen as we approach
the open...
We are moving up and down based
on the latest earnings news with important stocks. We saw a small
climb early in the session then dropped all day long. The QQQ
dropped from the open around 34.63 down to 34.35 then popped lto
34.63 again where it dropped to a low of 34.03 near the end of
the session.. We saw some early buying on key stocks such as SINA,
ASKJ, AMZN, KLAC, BRCM for about a dollar before the sellers came
in to stay...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I continue to like this stock for a low risk trade in an
uncertain environment... It is gapping down from 23.21 to 23...
I would expect this stock to climb off 22.80 to 23 if the market
is going to recover.... Look for it to climb to 23.50... LOW RISK
JNPR dropped more than I expect
but climbed off the bottom nicely.. Moving up from 22.55 to 23.22..
One key indication the market was not going to recover...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 22, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive on good jobless claims
news. Jobless claims are such that it indicates a good labor market.
Do we dare trust??? After yesterdays sellathon one must ask, "was
that capitulation?" If so we should see a very nice rebound
today... BUT my opinion is, NO. Usually capitulation will not
come the day after a rally.. usually they come when the market
is very weak...and not bouncing... then WHAMMM......everyone sells
in dispair..
The nets are weak and gapping down on a lousy reception by the
market with EBAYs earnings... They may climb a bit before dropping
and the sector would be a short.. If they pop over 50 cents then
I would say the market may recover today and end UP... For example,
AMZN is gapping down from 44.76 to 43.95 .. It can pop to 44.45,
where it would become a short... but if it climbs over 44.50,
it would be a key indication the market intends to recover.. Also
watch the gap as we approach the open. If it fades then it would
be a negative sign and we may dive early with no pop..
QCOM is gapping up on earnings so it may give a boost to the semis
in general, so I will be watching that sector for leadership...
If the market intends to recover today, they will climb early
with minimal selling.. We have a yo-yo environment and anything
can happen at anytime..
The Internets did pop over 50 cents
and the market did recover and end UP... We have an amazing yo-yo
market. I have seen them before but NOT as dramatic. The QQQ is
really swinging from day to day... YHOO popped a dollar from the
open, AMZN made it up 1.20, ASKJ a dollar, so we had a very good
indication the market would do well.. We saw them sell off the
highs which gave the shorts their due but climbed back off the
lows to make new highs.. The semis did much the same but did not
quite have the momentum as the nets.. The QQQ took its time getting
off its duff remaining rather narrow until about 2 1/2 hours into
the day when it climbed off 34.25 to 35.10...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - JNPR did reasonably well in a crummy market yesterday so
I am going to suggest you trade it, if you are so inclined...
Treat it like a scalp.. It is currently gapping from 22.97 to
23.15.. I would expect this stock to hold 23 if the market intends
to recover.. If it goes under 23 we may see more selling again
today... 23.50 would be my upside target... LOW RISK (in a high
risk environment)
JNPR did nicely again moving up
from 23.08 to 23.55... If one were so inclined it was also a good
short off my high target... dropping from 23.55 to 22.45 and then
bounced back to 23.35.. very nice swings for a low risk stock...
GOOD NEWS:
QCOM, SYMC, LRCX - Good Earnings news for each... These stocks
are not predictable due to the weird market behavior... We should
see them sell down at the open but how much is not predictable...
Watch and react..
QCOM climbed from the open with
no selling +4 bucks!! SYMC dropped from 44.20 to 41.... We noticed
the non participation at 35.50 and suggested it would be an 80%
short thanks to sunlight.. LRCX did like QCOM and climbed from
the open from 21 to 24.50..
BAD NEWS:
EBAY, SWIR - These stocks are weak and not dumpers... They can
sell down before gaining some traction... MERQ did really well
yesterday and we saw some nice pre open support.. Look for similar
action prior to the open and consider buying the first bottom
on the best one... Watch and React..
EBAY climbed +7 from the open...
and SWIR climbed 1.50, dropped 2.50 and climbed 3.00.. nice swings...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 21, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking happy this morning and the gaps seem pretty
uniform. We have been seeing some switcho chango action with the
semis and nets, in that one will be strong one day then weaker
the next... The QQQ is gapping up again which means that we have
a chance of another UP day today..
We should see some selling at the open based on profit taking
but generally the strong stocks climb pretty early.. I will be
watching the telecoms for signs of strength as ERICY has reported
some impressive earnings.. It appears NOK is going to be a company
specific story... We should see RIMM recover today after the weakness
yesterday but it will be a key indicator for any unexpected negativity...
Lets watch the nets, SINA, ASKJ,YHOO and AMZN this morning for
potential leadership... With the semis lets watch KLAC, BRCM,
NVLS.. QCOM should do well also... Lots to pick from.. My good
News stocks are: ERICY, MSFT, ROXI... bad news is: IMCL, MERQ..
Watch the gaps if they begin to fade going into the open we may
get a pullback (profit taking) day...
Well, it was one very strange day.
If you look at a daily chart of the QQQ, I don't think you will
find two back to back days like Tuesday and yesterday. We were
as weak yesterday as we were strong the day before. Wow! The QQQ
dropped from the open around 35.62 to 34.50 where it ended the
day. There were no bounces worth mentioning. Luckily for us ASKJ
gave us an early indication that the market was not well which
prompted me to sell my long positions and I took my profits, wheww.
Since the Market obviously changed on us, it was important to
watch key stocks and not jump in long until we actually saw buying.
The action was "scalps only" for the faster traders..
NTMD and TASR did the best on my screen, ending in the green.
LOW RISK:
JNPR - Lets watch JNPR today... MSFT has news and should get some
selling that is tough to guess... quite a few traders are long
from last night and will probably sell this morning... JNPR is
currently gappin up from 24.30 to 24.60.. I would expect selling
to as low as 24.40 but it should climb to 25 in a strong market...
LOW RISK
JNPR appeared to be on target dropping
to 24.30 and climbing to 24.75 but had you not taken the early
gains you would have taken a stop as it dropped with the market
to 22.80...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: MSFT
Sector: Software..
News: declaring a dividend and stock buyback...
Chart Snapshot: Nice uptrend since march around 24 to a recent
high at just under 29.. currently climbing off a recent low around
27.25...
Expectation: We have quite a few traders long from the news yesterday
after hours so I would expect selling... The current gap is up
from 28.32 to 29.70 ... I think the upside potential is about
30.. This should be a short to 29.50 at least and can drop to
29... If it holds 29.50 it can go over 30 and if it drops under
29.50 will probably only make it back to 29.80 to 30 at the most...
LOW RISK
MSFT did not hold 29.50 and as such
became a pretty good short moving down to 29 where it bounced
back to 29.35 and hit the skids down to 28.80.. Nice action for
a low risk stock..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: ERICY
Sector: telecom
News: Very good earnings...
Chart Snapshot: dropping from a recent high around 30... mostly
due to the bad news from NOK
Expectation: I would expect some selling on the gap but this stock
can perform well today... The current gap is up from 26.65 to
29.30... tough to say how many bought after the news hit but we
should get some selling.. I think this stock can move up to 30
but if it does so, will hold 29.. if it moves under 29, I will
look for buying off 28.50 with a potential at just over 29...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
ERICY sold down pre open to 28.80
which was indicative of a drop to at least 28.50... It tried to
bounce at 28.65 making it as high as 29.10 which was close to
my target.. It then hit the skids with the market dropping from
29.10 to 27.50...
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: MERQ
Sector: Software
News: Missed expectations...
Chart Snapshot: indicated a bottom yesterday after a steep decline
from Junes highs at 51...
Expectation: Currently gapping down from 42.73 to 34.30 ..so far
the support is around 33.80 and it has climbed to around 34.50....
its back down to 34.30 so we should see support at just under
34.. I think the first bottom is worth persuing as this stock
can recover to 36.... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
MERQ moved really well but unfortunately
for most it did so pre open. It opened around 36.70 which put
my upside target at 38, so the first bottom was still a good consideration...
It dropped to 35.40 and then took off making it to 38... Very
nice momentum, especially for such an ugly day...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 20, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning... Housing
starts are softer than expected indicating the economy is slowing
down. We are entrenched in a downtrend but saw signs of recovery
yesterday afternoon. The QQQ ended above mid range which indicates
we have a potential bottom. If that is the case we should see
minimal selling and early buying which is the normal pattern for
a strongly recovering market.
The semis were in the lead yesterday and the nets were very weak
but made a climb late in the day.. I will be watching both sectors
along with the Telecoms (RIMM in the lead) today and try to catch
the action. With the diverse action yesterday its not going to
be a predictable situation again, sigh...
I am seeing some weak gaps this morning which leads me to believe
we may see more selling, so be cautious as anything can happen
at anytime... The longer term indications if the QQQ holds the
gap up, is for us to end UP today... 70% chance in my opinion..
The Market decided to change again
as the nets took over the lead again and the semis came dragging
along behind. AMZN, ASKJ,YHOO climbed right from the open with
minimal selling. KLAC was once again the leader in the semis and
climbed much like the nets but QCOM and BRCM sold down quite a
bit before gaining traction. RIMM was very weak moving down most
of the day until the last hour and a half where it bounced 2 bucks...
The overall market did very well as the QQQ took off from the
open around 34.70 and moved up steadily to 35.30 where it ended
the day.. Classic bottom indication on Monday and follow through,
which was nice for the buy and hold crowd..
LOW RISK:
MSFT - This stock has been performing really well lately and has
not sold down much at all... The current gap is up from 27.95
to 28.05... I am guessing this stock will climb from 27.90 to
28... If the market is going to continue its upward momentum started
yesterday afternoon I am guessing MSFT will climb to 28.50 and
can go higher... LOW RISK
MSFT did well moving down to 27.88
and climbed to 28.50... very close to my targets... I went long
at 28 before it dropped and took a stop loss, then I got distracted
and did not re-enter... shows how important timing is to successful
trading...
GOOD NEWS:
Be cautious with the news because FLSH was really bad yesterday...
SONSE - Good earnings,, this stock is bouncing off 3 in the last
3 days.... currently gapping up from 4.10 to 5.. I would watch
for a long around 4.50... Can go to 5.. If it takes off from 4.80
and climbs, it can make it as high as 5.50, depends on daytraders..
LOW RISK
SONSE dropped under 4.80 which meant
my target was from 4.50 to 5... It climbed from 4.63 to 4.94..
not much potential..
ABFS - Good earnings,, ABFS is on a steep uptrend from 25 to 33
recently... Pulled back to 30 and bouncing... The current gap
is up from 31.48 to 33.90 ... We have resistance at 34 so I would
expect this stock to be an early short and should fall under 33...
It can pop to 34 or just over so watch it carefully... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK..
ABFS did as expected moving down
sharply from 34.40 to 33 and bounced back to 34.20 near the end
of the day..
BAD NEWS:
TASR - Seeks to boost auth shares to 200M from 50M.. this will
really dilute the earnings... Currently down from 36.32 to 34..
This stock will probably drop to at least 33 before any buying
interest comes in... its an early short for experienced traders...
