Summary
"Below
you will find the commentary of what Ken expects in his daily
email, which he sends about 1/2 hour before the open.. He
will note the risk and predictability of each type of trade.
Over the years he has been amazingly accurate.. This email
is sent to all members each day. Below the commentary in
black type, you will find what actually did happen as a summary
in green type"
Date:
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 25, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly on the positive side this morning..
Durable goods orders came in nicely but the reaction was pretty
muted... The Market is in a pullback mode off the recent highs
and as such buyers were very scarce yesterday. The nets seem dead
since GOOG opened and if we get any action I would expect the
semis to lead.
BRCM was our weakest semi and when the market decides to turn
around and move up, it should do well so I will be watching it
carefully this morning... The percentages will be with shorters
who should be looking to enter early.. SINA is gapping up on the
ol Yahoo buyout rumor so due to the repetitious nature of the
news... It should be a good short..
BRCM did well and gave us a very
good indication the market was intent on climbing. It dropped
about 50 cents and climbed nicely +1.30.. The buying was very
broad and most sectors participated well.. SINA did much better
than I thought it would, participating with the market quite nicely....
Most of the selling was very minimal and the buying was good...
Even the nets did well as did the low risk stocks: INTC, CSCO,
NVDA, JNPR, MSFT... Moving up about 50 cents with minimal selling,
JNPR doing the best moving up over a dollar...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: DITC
Sector: Comm equipment
News: Swing to profits on rev increase..
Chart Snapshot: climbing off 15 from a bottom 7 days ago...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 18.25 to 22.91... This
gap is excessive... IT should be an early short and I would expect
a drop under 22... I will not be interested until I see some good
selling action and the market getting some reasonable buying...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
DITC was a very good short moving
down from 22.90 to as low as 20.56...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: SMTC
Sector: Semiconductor...
News: 2Q net up sharply as revs rise...
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent bottom off 16..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.63 to 19.10... I would
expect some selling down to 18.50ish so it would be an early short..
If it holds 18.80 it can move up over 20 but the percentage of
that occurring is only 20%,,, LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SMTC was a good early short moving
down from 19.20 to 17.91, plenty of room for profits...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 24, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
Good Morning!!! Glad to be back from my shortened vacation...
The Market appears to be responding to lower oil prices and climbing
off the recent lows.. The QQQ is well off the low off 32 and up
above 34... The futures are positive but the trading yesterday
was mixed with more action with the semis than the nets... I will
be watching QCOM, BRCM and KLAC for leadership with a potential
drag with the nets.. It seems that money is probably flowing into
GOOG, sucking some of the potential in the sector..
Several sectors ended yesterday with negative momentum so we may
be due for a small pullback before we go higher... Today I have
two news plays...
The day was definitely a pullback.
Usually during uptrends you will see some buying before the drop
but today was very disappointing for those seeking to go long.
The money was made by shorters doing so fairly early. The QQQ
dropped from 34.25 to 34.13 and popped back to 34.28 before diving
to 33.84.. BRCM led the pack down due to some negative comments
by a Broker.. QCOM popped 50 cents before dropping,, KLAC did
not pop at all dropping over a dollar...
POSS - Reduced outlook due to trial uncertainty,, So far there
is no support so I will be looking for a drop from the open but
should have a good bottom... Probably around 19.50 to 19.80...
This stock can make it back up to 21... MEDIUM RISK
POSS dropped pre open and dropped
from the open at 18.58 down to 18.24 where it popped to 19.55..
It was a very fast trade and difficult to enter..
BCRX - Orphan drug designation... This should be a low risk trade...
on a recent uptrend from Last Month at just above 4 bucks... The
current gap is up from 6.04 to 6.45.. I would expect this stock
to bottom around 6.20 and a potential climb to 6.75... LOW RISK
No one was interested in BCRX...
It dropped from the open at 6.40 down to 5.80 with a minimal bounce
of 20 cents off 6.....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 18, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is gapping down this morning as the negative momentum
from yesterday seems to be continuing. We have oil climbing to
47 a barrel and this will weigh us down today.. Refis are up 20%
so consumers are increasing their spendable income and is a mild
plus for the economy... We have a pattern of mediocre buying from
yesterday but today I am not expecting it to continue...
I think we will drop from the open today and the buying will be
a "watch and react" proposition... I am going to treat
the early lows as scalps and its possible to see multiple lows
before any real buying steps in... The semis should lead us down
along with TASR which is gapping up from another order report,
sigh...
It seems refis and consumers were
the winners today and the market climbed nicely!! I was thinking
that oil would weigh us down but the market threw me a curve,
which occurs from time to time. The QQQ climbed from the open
at just over 33 up to 33.90 where it ended the day.. Very nice
upward momentum.. The leaders were the semis and Kmart... KLAC,
JNPR, NVDA, BRCM .. the nets sold down before gaining traction
with ASKJ gapping down a dollar and selling down about 30 cents
before reversing.. It was a good day for the bulls...
LOW RISK
JNPR - If we see any buying, JNPR should move up but its not predictable
today... This stock would be a short around 21 and it should go
to 20.50 and if the market looks nasty... can go lower... LOW
RISK
JNPR moved straight up from the
open at 20.79 to 21.75... excellent upside..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: TASR
Sector: security weapons
News: New law enforcement orders,, 741K in orders
Chart Snapshot: Not bouncing with the market off the last lows...
its losing its momentum... Pretty flat around 26..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 26.34 to 28... Should
be a short and I expect it to drop to 27 at least... I would be
cautious going long on this stock... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
TASR weakened pre open dropping
from 28 and opening at 27.56.. It dropped to 26.80 where it found
support and climbed to 27.54.. so so momentum for such a bullish
day...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: NTAP
Sector: data storage
News: 1Q income soars 75%
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low around 16..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.39 to 18.56 .. I would
be interested in this stock around 18.. I think it can bounce
over 18.50.. LOW RISK
NTAP made it down to 18.20 where
it found support and climbed nicely to 19.84.. Much better upside
than I thought.... The whole day was better upside than I thought....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 17, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market appears to be continuing the momentum from yesterday...
Futures were up before the numbers this morning and after the
numbers the Market popped more... Looks like we should have another
repeat of what we saw yesterday... The nets are in the lead with
the semis close behind but we could see a reverse today and semis
take off...
I will be watching for unexpected selling with the stocks that
climbed the most yesterday which would be AMZN.. I would not expect
more than 50 cents in selling and we very well may see a lot less....
If we climb early it will be tough to jump on board.. I will watch
for any pullbacks and bottoms to nail, hopefully we will see some
rats jumping to give us time to enter...
The Market took off early again..
The QQQ moved up from 33.10, after a nice gap up, to 33.43 where
it pulled back to 33.10 and bounced again to 33.35... We ended
slightly up to 33.25 but the momentum looked negative as many
indexes ended the day below mid range.. AMZN moved up a dollar
before dropping back and was a decent top indicator... The overall
buying was mediocre at best...
LOW RISK
JNPR - I continue to like this stock for early performance...
I did not like the way it made two bottoms yesterday so it may
be losing its predictability so caution is advised... The current
gap is up from 20.37 to 20.65.. I would expect a pullback to around
20.50 but it should hold close to that low and move up to 21 and
can go over... LOW RISK
JNPR did well once again moving
up from 20.55 and moved up to 21.10... good tradin stock even
in a mediocre environment... and LOWWWW RISKKK...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NVEC
Sector: semi
News: Patent for new MRAM structure
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low around 29..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 31.66 to 40 which is excessive...
It can drop as low as 38 before buyers come in and it can also
run... if it runs over 41 it will probably hold 39.50 and climb...
watch and react... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
NVEC did not hold 39.50 and dropped
just under 38 and climbed to 40.17... It was really fast and if
you blinked you missed it... tough trade...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 16, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
Saudis seem determined to pump oil... which should bring the prices
down... Venezuela seems stable for the time being.... we should
rise today.... 75% in my opinion... I would not expect much selling
at the open and we should see early climbs.. On Friday we saw
a pop n drop day so we will need to be cautious and look for signs
of the same. The volume is very low and we are going to have a
fairly newsless week unless something occurs unexpectedly..
We are through most of the earnings and there is not much in the
way of economic news.. Tuesday is CPI , housing starts and Industrial
production.. Thursday is jobless claims... and that is it... Its
going to be slow trading so get an extra cup of coffee and stay
awake..
The early climbs on Friday were pretty mediocre, so I will be
looking for a top around 40 to 50 cents... We shall see... watch
and react..
The Market took off early and climbed
most of the day as we suspected. The QQQ moved up from 32.60 to
33.18... AMZN did the best between the semis and nets.. It took
off from 36 and moved up to 38.40... YHOO moved up over a dollar..
The semis did not quite do as well.. KLAC only moving up about
60 cents,, Same with NVLS and BRCM..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock continues to perform well when the market rises...
I would expect it to do well if buyers show up... Look for an
early climb and it to climb around 50 cents.... LOW RISK
JNPR climbed early from 20.10 to
20.45.... like many semis, so-so momentum.. It swung down from
20.45 to test the low at just over 20 again and climbed again
to 20.43 which is unusual for this stock..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 13, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is slightly positive this morning and inflation is
pretty tame.. The only problem I see is the trade deficit growing
which will be hurting the exporters... We have enough to worry
the market and the direction today is not predictable.. Oil is
still a concern and should weigh us down should it continue to
rise, so this afternoon lets watch the oil price.. After the initial
pops I will be looking for shorts....
Yesterday we saw a mediocre rise prior to a drop and I am going
to anticipate somewhat the same thing occurring today.. Pop n
Drop.. QCOM and NVEC should lead us UP... Also CECO and COCO did
well...
We had another pop n drop day as
we expected... The top came early in the first few minutes.. The
QQQ opened around 32.65 and climbed to 32.75 then dropped to 32.35...
One thing that was nice to see was the uniformity between the
semis and nets... KLAC, BRCM, AMZN, YHOO all popped then dropped
together..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I continue to like this stock as it climbs early and moves
up around 50 cents... The current gap is up from 20.20 to 20.45...
I would expect an early climb and it can go as high as 21... LOW
RISK
JNPR Moved up from 20.47 to 20.80
not quite making it to the 21...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: DELL
Sector: Computers
News: earnings in line, outlook is strong
Chart Snapshot: Steep slide from 35 the first of august down to
yesterdays low around 32.70...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 33.12 to 34.27... This
stock can climb over 34.50 and go as high as 35 in a nicely climbing
market... If she is going to 35 it will hold 34.. I would look
for a long position around 34... LOW RISK
DELL held 34 and climbed nicely
to 35.05 in spite of the dropping market...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: CSCO
Sector: Networking
News: Upgrade to overweight by Morgan Stanley
Chart Snapshot: Recent big drop based on earnings... from just
over 20.. down to 17.50 yesterday...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.79 to 18.14.. I would
expect to see 18 hold and it can climb over 18.50.... LOW RISK
CSCO did not hold 18, but dropped
from the open at 18.29 to 17.82 and bounced to 18.12...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 12, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative this morning but the futures are
improving on the retail sales and employment claims. July retail
sales were down more than what was expected but June was revised
up.. The market has a reason to drop and a reason to go up so
its going to be interesting to see if we can rebound again today...
Not predictable..
The leaders yesterday were the biotechs and Pharmaceuticals with
the nets close behind... The dogs were the semis... So that means
we will look for selling with the semis to guage the weakness
and watch the buying with the nets to guage the strength.. Hewlett
Packard disappoints and warns so that will no doubt weigh on the
techs again today...
Keep an eye on JNPR again today as this stock can climb early
as it did yesterday... It held up very nicely and is a low risk
stock.. Watch BRCM, if it manages to open above 29 we will probably
climb early...
The QQQ popped then dropped... moving
up from 32.70 to 32.86 then dropping to 32.55.. The early buying
was mediocre... the market attempted another rise moving back
up to 32.80 and dropped to a new low at 32.40.. Another stinky
day for the bulls.. JNPR did well again moving up from 20.40 to
20.90 before dropping...
BAD NEWS:
CYBX - PMA supplement not approvable by FDA.. So far this stock
has support off 13... It bounced early so I would expect 13 to
hold as support... The current gap is down from 23.90 to 13.30...
Watch and react,, should be worth nailing the first bottom after
the open... MEDIUM RISK
CYBX did well but failed to hold
13 pre open.. It moved down to 12.80 pre open then bounced and
opened at 13.65, dropped to 12.80 where it held and moved up nicely
to 14.60... Nice swing..
DIGE - Lowering views below wall streets expectations.. The current
gap is down from 32.02 to 24... Watch the pre open action and
I would expect the first bottom to be good... MEDIUM RISK
DIGE did not participate with the
upward action like CYBX and became a short at 22.30... It then
made multiple bottoms moving down to just under 20 where it bounced
to 22... Multi bottom dumper...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 11, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
CSCO has reminded the Market that all is not well in techy land
so we are seeing selling across the board.. funny thing is the
dow is selling as well, so the market is simply using CSCO as
an excuse to take money off the table... The nets were stronger
yesterday with the exception of ASKJ so I would expect some nice
pops in the early trading with YHOO and AMZN...
Leading the recovery in the semis in the early trading should
be BRCM since it is down about 2 dollars.. Normally we see early
buying with gaps down.. For lower risk give JNPR a try since it
is down a dollar and should rise early... The amount of buying
is not really predictable so I will be watching for general tops
by a decrease in pace...
The Market opened down and headed
down... Normally on big gap down days we see a pop on the gaps
down and then we go short but today we had very little opportunity.
The QQQ dropped from 32.86 to 32.55 and bounced back up to 32.91..
Later in the day it made it up to 33.03 and ended at 32.91 recovering
off the early lows. The pharmaceuticals and biotechs did very
well and bucked the trend.. The only stocks on my screen that
went up as expected were QCOM, JNPR... The Nets sold down a bit
but recovered much better than the semis... YHOO sold down about
20 cents and climbed early... AMZN sold down 80 cents before climbing
so it was a bit of a mix... BRCM opened 2 dollars down and sold
off another 2 bucks.. Very tough day trying to find the bottoms.....
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: CSCO
Sector: Networking and communication hardware
News: Earnings disappointment and downgrades today..
Chart Snapshot: Bottomed Friday after a two month downtrend from
24 to just under 20...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 20.46 to 18.90.. I would
expect a bottom anywhere from 18.50 to 18.80... so far there is
no support so it would be expected to drop from the open... I
will keep an eye on it prior to the open and see where buyers
gain interest... LOW RISK
CSCO dropped from the open as expected..
It moved down from 18.80 to 18.30 and back up to 18.50... pretty
blahhh......
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 10, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking positive this morning... We have decent
productivity numbers today and it is giving us a little boost..
Yesterday was somewhat of a resting day after some nasty downside
action. We seem to have washed out many sellers but buyers are
still leary to step in... We may see a repeat of that type of
action today, especially before the feds announce.. watch and
react...
Yesterday the buying did not occur until sellers took us down...
ASKJ sold down the most before bouncing so I will be watching
that stock again today... Lehman is coming out with some negative
comments on the semis and it may weigh them down today.. Faster
traders may want to go short early and see how far down they go..
The Market slowly climbed most of
the day.. The QQQ opened around 32.97 moved slowly up to 33.22,
dropped right before the feds announced to 32.97 and climbed back
to end at 33.42.. The early selling was less than we had seen
the day before and the Lehman comments did not weigh the semis
down as much as I would have expected on the sell side but the
buying was mediocre.... KLAC only dropped a dime before climbing
55 cents.. NVLS dropped 20 cents and climbed 40 cents.. BRCM dropped
20 cents and climbed 60 cents.. The nets did better.. YHOO climbed
from 26 to 27.20,,, AMZN climbed from 35.60 to 37.20.. ASKJ was
a strange one by not participating until after the feds announced
and it climbed from the days low at 23.76 to 24.85..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NVDA
Sector: specialized semi
News: stock repurchase plan
Chart Snapshot: big drop on bad earnings news recently.. long
downtrend from april at 27 down to 9.50 yesterday and attempted
to recover, ending above mid range..
Expectation: We should see some selling at least to 10.. The current
gap is up from 9.85 to 10.38... Should sell down to 10 where I
might be interested if the market looks good at the time for longs...
It would be a pretty easy early short down to 10 and can go lower...
LOW RISK
NVDA dropped from 10.48 to 10.22
where it slowly bottomed and climbed back up to 10.65... Not as
much selling as I expected...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: TASR
Sector: electronic weaponry
News: 4 new orders worth 724K...
Chart Snapshot: Downtrending from 49.. down to 26...
Expectation: This stock keeps getting this type of news, pops
then drops... The current gap is up from 26.63 to 29.40... It
will be an early short and should move down under 29... I would
not be interested in going long until I saw 28 to 28.50... If
the market intends to do well prior to the feds meeting, we will
see this stock move up off 28.80 and can go over 30.. MEDIUM RISK
TASR was a very good short moving
down as expected from 29.35 to 27.90 where it tested the bottom
twice and moved up to 28.90...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: DISH
Sector: communications network
News: decent 2Q earnings, share buyback and added 240K new subscribers..
Chart Snapshot: Long downtrend with support around 27 but no sign
of a turnaround..
Expectation: The gap is up from 27.26 to 28.15... I would expect
this stock to drop to 27.80 if it intends to do well, which is
iffy... It can go as low as 27.50 because the long downtrend can
drag this stock back down... I would want to short this stock
around 28.50.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
DISH held 27.80 moving up from 27.90
to 29.80, much better than I had expected.. It dropped down to
28.78... stronger than I would have expected due to the long downtrend
which normally brings in stronger selling...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 9, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning with the
S & P futures up 1.50 and the Nasdaq futures up 5.00 ... Do
we believe the positive indication and jump on board??? We certainly
do have compelling value as stocks hit some impressive lows on
Friday. The semis were dragging along all day long with very little
upward momentum and the nets were in the lead with ASKJ doing
the best with a multi dollar climb. The volume is also looking
mighty sparse so while we may have some buying, it is certainly
NOT enthusiastic...
If we intend to recover we should see stocks like KLAC, QCOM,
BRCM move up early with minimal selling.. Those will be my key
indicators and I will look for continued early strength from the
nets, ASKJ, YHOO, AMZN... For low risk consider jumping on JNPR
or NVDA.. I will be looking for highs to jump on shorts again
today... "Watch and React" environment again...
At 10:00am this morning we have the Wholesale Inventories report
due. Consensus expectations are for a reading of 0.6% . May provide
some movement.. <Gimmie> Friday COCO and CECO showed relative
strength all day, holding in the green while the market tanked.
And this morning, COCO is gapping positively on the Nasdaq most
active list. Should be ones to watch today, for long candidates.
The overall market remained very
narrow all day long... Opening around 32.82 and swinging up to
32.93 and down to 32.66. It remained within that range all day
long.. The semis did better than the nets.. BRCM opened around
32.40 dropped to 32.05 and climbed to 32.82.. KLAC remained fairly
narrow swinging from an early high at 38.90 down to 38.25 and
back up to 38.75.. ASKJ sold down 1.40 before bottoming and climbed
a dollar.. YHOO sold down 90 cents and climbed 40 cents.. AMZN
did the best dropping only 65 cents and climbing 1.40.. Our low
risk stocks did fairly well.. JNPR moving down 40 cents and climbing
65 cents and NVDA dropping 20 cents and climbing 55 cents... COCO
managed a 40 cent bounce and CECO climbed early moving up 1.40...
PCLN - *DJ CSFB Raises Priceline To Outperform From Neutral ...
This stock is gapping up from 18.40 to 19.15.. I would expect
selling down to 18.80 and a climb back up over 19 depending on
the market mood at the time.. LOW RISK
PCLN dropped to 18.50 before it
bounced... It made it back up to 19.10... the bounces were pretty
slow and difficult to time..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 6, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is very unhappy over the jobs report... It was a big
miss and we may see capitulation today... Lets watch BRCM and
KLAC today for an indication of what the market intends to do...
If the market recovers we shall see those two do well in the early
going. Normally when we see big gaps down we get early buying
so that is what I will be looking for...
Faster traders can buy BRCM, KLAC or NVDA near the open anticipating
some pops but we could dive,, tis possible even if low percentage...
We will definitely want to short the pops..
The QQQ stayed pretty flat for a
few hours moving up and down from 33.40 to 33.10.. After about
4 1/2 hours of this sidewinding action it broke out to the downside
under 33.10 down to 32.67 where it ended the day... It was another
one of those strange days in the early trading with the nets making
some fairly decent gains and the semis doing very little.. Later
on the nets finally joined the semis on the downside.. ASKJ did
the best, dropping from the open from 23.40 to 22.80 and climbing
to 25.10.. We caught the short at the high and saw it drop to
24.10.. Another tough day for the bulls...
NVDA - Bad earnings news, missed expectations... The current gap
is down from 14.56 to 10.80 with no real support so far... I would
expect this stock to be the best performer and should bottom around
10.50... Treat the trade like a scalp with a potential rise around
11.20 to 11.50... LOW RISK
The bottom on NVDA came under 10,
at 9.60 and it climbed back to the open price at 10.20... Value
shopping was not very good with the semis..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 5, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is slightly positive today and we may see a continuation
of the recovery type trading we saw yesterday. The semis were
in the lead and did the best.. I will be watching them for leadership
today but I expect the nets to catch up.. Yesterday we saw a pop
and drop then buying.. I am going to watch for something similar
today BUT we may not drop all that much if the recovery gets into
full swing.
I think you can go long early with the QQQ, SMH and expect a nice
swing UP today... The action may be slow so patience will be required..
Looking at the gaps right now it appears the nets are gathering
the most interest and may take over the lead today...
The Market did one of those "good
bye Charlie" drop all day, moves.. Going long early was a
stopper... I purchased the SMH and QQQ and due to my feeling we
would recover, held on and got stopped after giving up about 35
cents in profits.. sigh.. The QQQ never did much at all moving
down from 34.38 to 33.60 breaking under the previous support at
33.70... After some nice gaps up, the nets took a nose dive and
became the key indication we were in trouble.. Some semis climbed
in the early going, KLAC moving down 50 cents and up 80 cents,
BRCM moved up from the open at 34.40 to 34.90.. Others did nothing...
Bad day for the bulls...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: KIND
Sector: Long term care, healthcare
News: good earnings
Chart Snapshot: downtrending since the first of July....down from
27 to 23..
Expectation: The volume is low on this one so it may be a slow
mover... It is currently gapping up from 23.54 to to 25.81.. I
would expect selling to 25 and can go lower... I will be interested
in going long under 25 at some point depending on the market action...
MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
KIND fell slowly to 25.10... it
gapped higher to 26.50 made a very quick pop to 26.85 and dropped
to 25.10.. good potential on the downside...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: UNTD
Sector: Internet Software
News: disappointing earnings..
Chart Snapshot: Steep downtrend from June around 20 to yesterdays
low..
Expectation: IACI made two bottoms before climbing... so I would
expect UNTD to drop at the open... would be an early short probably
for faster traders.. It is currently gapping down from 13.85 to
10.94... so far no support... watch and react... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
UNTD was pretty blah dropping to
10.75 and moving up to 11.25...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 4, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative this morning as the market chooses
to focus on rising oil prices.. We have some negative comments
regarding YHOO by SCHB and the sector is looking weak.. Yesterday
the buying was bad and there is no guarantee we will see many
today... I think our highest percentage trades will be early shorts...
I would expect stocks to drop at least by 50 cents and if we see
them go under, it will probably be another bad day..
If we do see value traders today they will probably nail the nets
early so keep an eye on, AMZN, YHOO, and ASKJ... Its basically
going to be a "watch and react" day.. I think our best
potential today will be with the dumper IACI..
The early trading was about as I
expected as most stocks dropped around 50 cents but the buying
was better than we saw the previous day.. Most stocks fell the
expected 50 cents before climbing, like AMZN.. It dropped from
37 to 36.40 and climbed to 37.40... YHOO dropped 30 cents and
climbed 50 cents.. ASKJ moved down 70 cents and climbed 85 cents..
The semis popped a bit then fell, KLAC popped 60 cents, fell 80
cents and climbed 1.10... BRCM popped 50 cents, dropped 1 dollar
and climbed 1.60... NVLS popped 40 cents, dropped 60 cents and
climbed 1 dollar... The QQQ climbed from 34.15 to 34.33, dropped
to 34 and climbed to 34.45 and ended slightly positive...
BAD NEWS:
IACI - earnings disappointed the market and lowering estimates..
The gap is down from 27.03 to 21.60 and bouncing.... Now at 22..
We will need to watch and see if 21.60 holds support.. Our dumpers
have been selling down before they bounce so we will need to watch
and react.. I would guess this stock will bounce above 21... MEDIUM
RISK
IACI moved down from 22.30 to 21.65
and climbed to 23.30 for a very nice swing if you were able to
time it... It appeared to climb off 21.90 but faked us out and
made another bottom at 21.65... two bottoms are tougher to trade...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 3, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative this morning.. Oil is
at record highs and may start to weigh on the market again.. The
Market continues to try its best to maintain the uptrend from
the previous low.. Yesterday was fairly flat but I consider that
a positive in light of the terrorist alerts.. We should be watching
the gaps carefully to see if we will get any negative action at
the open..
I am not going to expect too much selling after the open but the
buying will probably be very picky with some stocks doing well
and others not so well... For low risk stocks watch JNPR and NVDA...
I think we can still get about 50 cents from these two once buyers
come on board...
Trying to go long was a difficult
situation as the market went down and kept going down. Bounces
were minimal.. Oil was weighing heavily on the market and buyers
were MIA (missing in action).. The QQQ climbed a hair from the
open up to 34.90 then dropped all day long and ended around 34.30..
We saw the key indications and went short, but we were off the
highs and had to short near the lows, which was tough at the time..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - This stock continues to give us 50 cents and gets very
little selling... The gap is up from 15.62 to 15.66 .. I would
expect this stock to rise around 15.50 and move to 16...
NVDA was a stopped trade, moving
down from 15.70 to 14.70 with no bounces worth mentioning...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: ADBE
Sector: software
News: Raising Guidance..
Chart Snapshot: Moving up from a previous July low around 39..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 41.97 to 44.. I would
expect this stock to hold 43.50 and climb to 44.50... If we see
it dip under 43.50 then it will probably not move over 44... LOW
TO MEDIUM RISK
ADBE actually cornered some buyers...
It moved from a low of 43.36 up to 44.30 which was very good considering
the day... The first bounce was from 43.50 to 44 before dropping
to 43.36 and up to 44.30.... two bounces..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: CALM
Sector: Farm Products
News: 2M share buyback authorized
Chart Snapshot: Flat for two weeks around 11....
Expectation: Since this stock has no momentum for the previous
two weeks... No one cares... The story is a weak one so this trade
will be more of a short... It is gapping up from 11.51 to 13.35
and should drop to 12.50 and can go a bit under.... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
CALM was a good short moving from
13.12 at the open to 11.90... Plenty of downside potential..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For August 2, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative due to terrorist fears.. The Global
markets hit the skids and it now appears we will be going down
as well... Homeland security warnings are specific to the financial
markets, and raised to orange. On Friday we opened slightly negative
and recovered with minimal selling meaning the market is not overly
nervous which means we may see another recovery from the early
lows.
Normally on gap down days we see early buying and that is the
possibility today as well... Look to the biggest gaps down with
no news to follow the early action. I would expect a pop and then
a drop, so shorting will be high percentage if we can time the
tops.. The semis and nets did somewhat the same on Friday and
I will be watching these two groups for leadership today...
We also have security stocks moving up (MAGS, IPIX, MACE) .. MAGS
reported good earnings.. Education stocks are moving down on COCO
warning and should see some recovery if we continue to see value
buying like we did last week.. The sympathy stocks may do the
best.... APOL, CECO
Once again the market recovered
from the early lows. The QQQ opened down around 34.60 dropped
minimally to 34.47 then climbed very slowly to 35.02.. The operative
word is still "recovery".. The semis were somewhat mixed,
BRCM did well moving down from 34.55 to 34.10 and climbing to
35.50... KLAC and NVLS dropped more than they climbed.. JNPR did
very well opening at 22.50, dropping to 22.30 and taking off to
23.10.. The nets were pretty flat.. ASKJ opened arund 28.80 moved
down to 28.30 and back up to 29,,, YHOO opened at 30.50 and slowly
dropped to 30.15 with no bounces until late in the day when it
moved off 30.15 to 30.50.. AMZN did the best.. opening at 38.45
and moving down to 37.80 and back up to 38.75... We continue to
see good recovery from the dumpers and weak stocks.. CECO moved
up from 28.50 to 30.30.. APOL moved up from 71.20 to 77.70.. COCO
moved up from 10 to 10.90...
LOW RISK:
NVDA - This stock has been performing nicely lately.. If the market
is going to recover again today we should see this stock move
up.. The current gap is down from 15.42 to 15.28 and should hold
15 and move as high as 15.50.. We should be watching and looking
for a short off the high.. LOW RISK
NVDA continues to do well.. It moved
up from 15.17 to 15.68...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NTMD
Sector: Drug Manuf.
News: Upgraded by Deutsch Bank with a 38 target..
Chart Snapshot: Up big off 6 and is not really pulling back all
that much... Its down from 19.60 to 15.80 where it is bouncing
and back to 17.50...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.48 to 21.20... The
gap is excessive and we should see some selling... I would say
that if this stock holds 20.50 it can move over 23 as high as
25... It moves fast and is for faster traders only or small shares
to control risk.. MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
NTMD held 20.50 easily.. It moved
up off 20.90 and made it up to 23.20...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: MAGS
Sector: security
News: Good Earnings and strong sector with the terrorist alerts...
Chart Snapshot: Slow downtrend from 23 from the end of May...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 16.24 to 17.25.. this
stock may climb as high as 18 but if it should hold 17 if its
going to... If it goes under 17 it will probably not go up over
17.50... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MAGS fell from 17.40 all day long
with no bounces... Made it to 15.50...
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: COCO
Sector: education
News: warns
Chart Snapshot: Big, steep downtrend from April highs at 36...
Trying to bottom around 18.50...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 18.72 to 11.90... So
far there is very little support but we are getting some very
good action with dumpers lately... APOL and CECO are both down
in sympathy... I would expect some buying with this group and
the first bottom will be worth persuing.... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
COCO made multiple bottoms, so trying
it off the first bottom was a stopper... it finally found support
off 10 and climbed to 10.90...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 30, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative this morning.. Yesterday
it held on to the gains from the recent lows which was a good
sign but with gaps down this morning its indicative of a negative
market today. Early shorts will be high percentage and we should
see key stocks dropping at least 50 cents such as, KLAC, NVLS,
BRCM, AMZN, YHOO.. ASKJ and TASR can each drop a dollar and all
of these stocks can go lower if we get a market dump.
I think we should be patient today and not go long til we actually
see buyers enter... Treat bottoms like scalps until we get a feel
for what the market intends to do...
The QQQ traded within a very narrow
range moving down from the open minimally and swinging up about
40 cents in the first hour and a half, then remained very flat
the rest of the day.. No real movement up or down.. There was
less selling than I expected and the market held up reasonably
well... The semis did well as did the nets, BRCM moving down about
40 cents and climbing 1.30,, KLAC had minimal selling and climbed
2.25,,, NVLS climbed 90 cents with minimal selling... AMZN climbed
1.10 with minimal selling,,, YHOO climbed 90 cents with minimal
selling as did ASKJ.. TASR moved up 1.40..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - this stock did really well yesterday and can do well again
today should the market rise... Its currently gapping down slightly
to 15.21 from 15.25.. I would think this would be worth a long
position off 15 as it can climb to 15.50 even in a flat to slightly
negative market... LOW RISK
NVDA did very well once again, moving
from 15.03 up to 15.70... It looked a little iffy in the first
10 minutes after the open almost retesting the early low but climbed
nicely for those who exercised some patience..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: GILD
Sector: Biotech
News: Profits up on HIV drug sales
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent bottom at 56 after a steep
drop the first of July from 67..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 59.50 to 64.57.. I think
the gap is excessive especially for a potential market dive from
the open... I think it will go under 64 as low as 63 before we
see an adequate bounce worth persuing.. I would guess it can make
it back up to 64.50 to 65..... MEDIUM
RISK
GILD dipped under 64 to 63.80 and
climbed nicely to 66.70... good swing..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: AIRT
Sector: Air Delivery and Freight
News: Good earnings report
Chart Snapshot: Up big yesterday from 12 to 16.20
Expectation: Looks like we have some front runners in this stock..
I would expect some selling and it would be worth an early short...
Its currently gapping up from 16.20 to 18.25.. I would expect
this stock to go as low as 17 before it bounces... depending on
what the market is looking like at the time... MEDIUM RISK
Shorting AIRT was a very good idea
as front runners hit it hard.. It moved down from 18.25 to 16
in the early going and went lower to end the day near 15..
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: MGAM
Sector: Gaming
News: lower than expected 3Q results..
Chart Snapshot: Trying to climb off a recent low above 23..
Expectation: I would expect this stock to have a good first bottom..
The current gap is down from 24.54 to 17.99... I have not seen
much support so this stock will probably dive from the open...
It would be worth an early short and it can go as low as 17 and
under... yesterday TARO dropped a dollar before it gained some
upward traction.. MEDIUM RISK
MGAM dropped pre open moving down
to 17.50 where it climbed very well, making it up to 19.80...
______________________________________________________
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 29, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking rather happy after a yesterday turn around.
It appears that the bottom we saw on Monday is going to hold..
The QQQ is capable of making it up to 35 today... As such we should
see minimal selling and early buying. Generally the stronger stocks
have been moving up early much like what we saw with CREE yesterday...
That is what I will be expecting.. If we do sell down ASKJ should
lead us down with the semis following... so keep a close eye on
ASKJ, KLAC, BRCM for leadership..
ASKJ dropped a dollar before climbing
which was not really indicative of a weak market due to recent
bad news.. KLAC and BRCM climbed about a dollar from the open..
AMZN also climbed a dollar with minimal selling and YHOO only
made it up about 50 cents.. The QQQ was rather flat opening around
34.70 and trading flat for a few hours before climbing from 34.55
to 34.92.. It then dropped back to 34.50 and bounced back to 34.90
later in the day...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock has been following the market action fairly
well and should rise early if the market is as I expect... It
is currently gapping up from 22.17 to 22.40... I would expect
this stock to rise off 22.20 to 22.30... Going under 22.20 will
be a negative indication for the market... I would expect to see
this stock climb to 23... LOW RISK
JNPR did not move down much or up
much... In the early action it moved down to 22.50 and up to 22.90..
Later in the day it moved off 22.50 again and bounced to 23.10..
It required some patience to get the most out of the trade....
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: SOHU
Sector: China Net
News: Good Earnings..
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low..
Expectation: the current gap is up from 17.75 to 20.50 .. I would
expect some selling and it should go under 20... I think this
stock can make it back up to 21 but the low can be around 19.50..
Its tough to figure how many sellers will be on this one... MEDIUM
RISK
SOHU dropped to 19.50 and climbed
slowly to 20.75.. good Trade..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: SONSE
Sector: Business software
News: Profit versus loss last year.. good earnings
Chart Snapshot: downtrending off a recent high at 5..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 4.34 to 5.50.. I would
expect this stock to drop to 5 and can go under... It would be
an early short and I would not go long until I saw it around 4.80
depending on how the market is looking at the time... It can go
back up to 5.50... LOW RISK
SONSE dropped under 5 as expected,
moving down to 4.97 and climbed back to 5.22..
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: TARO
Sector: Drug Manuf...
News: Missed earnings by a wide margin..
Chart Snapshot: Very steep downtrend from 48 in June down to yesterdays
low... No sign of buyers
Expectation: This stock is down big... Its gap is down from 30.08
to 18.93... I have not seen much support so far... I would think
it would bounce but so far it looks like it will dive from the
open... I will be looking for a bottom as it should do well once
the institutions get done with their exit... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
The bottom was great as it moved
off 18 after dipping from 18.90 at the open... It climbed from
18.90 to 24.45.. excellent upside potential...
______________________________________________________
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 28, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Operative word yesterday was "recovery"... Nets
led the recovery while semis were a drag... Will the recovery
continue??? Thats the big question... The Market is simply not
predictable, futures are slightly down and durable goods are less
than expected... We should see some selling at the open so early
shorts would be the high percentage play for faster traders...
We can dive to QQQ 34 again and might go under.
TASR and ASKJ are two stocks that generally sell down when the
sellers hit so I will be watching those.. SINA also dropped a
dollar yesterday before the buyers nailed it.. TASR has news where
they responded to the CBS news report and is gapping up nicely
which will help the shorts, TASR defending itself is the same
ol news...
The Market was looking pretty dismal
as stocks fell near the open.. Early shorts did very well as stocks
tumbled.. As I explained in class, selling was expected but the
buyers were expected to come back in anytime and so they did.
The QQQ fell from an early high of 34.50 down to 33.80 slowly
for 4 1/2 hours then WHAM, took off to the upside and made it
as high as 34.60... ASKJ sold down late in the day on earnings
reported during the market hours and fell from 30.70 to around
25.50 for an amazing dump. It then recovered back up to 28.50...
very nice swing.. TASR dropped as expected and bounced nicely
but SINA took off early with hardly any selling and moved from
24.20 to 26.50...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: CREE
Sector: Semi Equip
News: Sees 1Q net above views
Chart Snapshot: Nice rally yesterday from 18 to 20.75..
Expectation: I suspect we have some front runners so this stock
will be a short.. Its gapping up from 20.56 to 21.96... should
be a short and drop under 21.50... If it holds 21.50 it can pop
to 22.50... If the market dives it can go under 21 easily... LOW
TO MEDIUM RISK
CREE held up nicely while other
stocks were dropping so we closed the short and some traders reversed
and went long... It climbed from 21.80 to 23 for a very nice swing
up... It really paid off to notice key indicators and compare
the trade with the general movements..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: ZRAN
Sector: Semiconductor
News: Boosts Yr View
Chart Snapshot: downtrending with the market from 19 to yesterdays
low around 13.50...
Expectation: Gapping up from 13.95 to 16.05.. The gap is excessive
so this stock should be an early short above 16 and drop to 15.50
at least and can go lower depending on the market... I don't think
it will go over 16 much so consider going long if the potential
looks good, probably under 15.50.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK..
ZRAN did as expected moving down
from 16 down to 15.25 and bouncing to 16.60 late in the session.......
better than I expected..
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: CECO
Sector: education
News: record earnings but two downgrades.. tough to please everyone...
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low at 40...
Expectation: Currently gapping down from 44.50 to 39.90... This
stock can move down as I see very little support so far... I think
the first bottom will be worth +2 bucks, watch and react.. MEDIUM
TO HIGH RISK
CECO dropped quite a bit from the
open.. The apparent first bottom was stopped and it was difficult
to figure out how low it would go... It actually achieved a dumper
price (-20%) and bounced around 32.70 and made it up to 35.20..
Good swings if you could time the bottom...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: UTSI
Sector: Telecom
News: A2 net profit falls 21%
Chart Snapshot: Downtrend from 32 in June down to 25.. bottoming
last two days..
Expectation: The current gap is down from 25.25 to 21.15.. It
appears support is just under 21... We will need to watch this
stock as it may fall to 20 before gaining any traction... I would
be interested around 20 dollars... If it pops from the open...
short the pop, for faster traders... MEDIUM RISK
Shorting the early pop to 20.85
was a good idea as it dropped to 17.80 and bounced to 18.60...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 26, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is locked in a yo yo pattern, moving up and down with
the latest bit of news. Today should be an UP day in our yo yo
pattern and the futures are looking like that is going to be the
case. We are also seeing action developing very slowly and lasting
all day long, so if we do see buyers enter early, they may stay
with us most of the day..
Friday we dropped then popped before the sellers came in for the
remainder of the day... The pops were worth about a dollar on
our more popular stocks and I would expect the same thing today..
Semis and Nets both did well... Google just posted some nice ad
numbers so the nets may take off...
Keep an eye on NTMD.. this little bio stock has performed well
since the news about the stopping of its drug trial due to good
results.. The drug is only effective on afro-americans, so the
market is limited but still relatively significant.. Tough to
figure out how much this stock will move.. Watch and react..
The Market threw us another curve
and failed to keep the up and down, yo yo pattern.. The QQQ opened
around 34.20, climbed to 34.40 appearing like a recovery was happening
then, WHAM, down we went to 33.78 breaking under the 34 support.
We bounced 4 times off 33.78 up to 34 to 34.08 where we ended
the day.. Trying to find bottoms was very difficult because of
the wide mix in selling. The buying was mixed as well.. some stocks
giving us adequate bounces and some not... The best bouncers were:
ASKJ, KLAC, QCOM, NTMD...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I like this stock and I think it will be good enough for
at least 50 cents this morning, and can go higher in a nicely
climbing market... The current gap is up from 22.76 to 22.86..
I would expect buyers to come in early and expect this stock to
rise off 22.70 to 22.80 and move to as high as 23.50... LOW RISK
JNPR was very dismal, dropping much
more than expected with very minimal bounces.. Stopped
BAD NEWS:
ANDW, CHKP - Both of these are gapping down on earnings disappointment..
Watch for pre open support and consider buying the first bottom..
ANDW bounce was only worth about
40 cents and CHKP was worth a dollar...
GOOD NEWS:
ASKJ - Extends advertising relationship with google.. The stock
is gapping up from 28.32 to 30.10... This stock can sell down
quite a bit before getting buyers... its a watch and react kind
of trade.. it can go as high as 31 but if it does will hold 29.80...
If it goes under 29.80 it can go as low as 29 before bouncing
back to 30... MEDIUM RISK
ASKJ was wild, falling from 29.90
to 27.50 before it bounced, then did very well moving up to 30.20...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 23, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The big news is earnings.. MSFT and AMZN are taking us down again...
This is one skitzo market... Up big on Tuesday, Down big on Wednesday,
up moderately on Thursday and today its looking down... If we
do recover which in my opinion is a 60% possibility we will see
MSFT and AMZN recover... The nets are gapping down and should
climb first as they were the strongest sector yesterday...
Yesterday we saw some early buying.... then we dropped appearing
to hit the skids hard but true to the early indication, climbed
again to make new highs... Much of the same type of action can
occur today.. Its going to be very interesting and we will probably
get a clue if we start to see the gaps strengthen as we approach
the open...
We are moving up and down based
on the latest earnings news with important stocks. We saw a small
climb early in the session then dropped all day long. The QQQ
dropped from the open around 34.63 down to 34.35 then popped lto
34.63 again where it dropped to a low of 34.03 near the end of
the session.. We saw some early buying on key stocks such as SINA,
ASKJ, AMZN, KLAC, BRCM for about a dollar before the sellers came
in to stay...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I continue to like this stock for a low risk trade in an
uncertain environment... It is gapping down from 23.21 to 23...
I would expect this stock to climb off 22.80 to 23 if the market
is going to recover.... Look for it to climb to 23.50... LOW RISK
JNPR dropped more than I expect
but climbed off the bottom nicely.. Moving up from 22.55 to 23.22..
One key indication the market was not going to recover...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 22, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive on good jobless claims
news. Jobless claims are such that it indicates a good labor market.
Do we dare trust??? After yesterdays sellathon one must ask, "was
that capitulation?" If so we should see a very nice rebound
today... BUT my opinion is, NO. Usually capitulation will not
come the day after a rally.. usually they come when the market
is very weak...and not bouncing... then WHAMMM......everyone sells
in dispair..
The nets are weak and gapping down on a lousy reception by the
market with EBAYs earnings... They may climb a bit before dropping
and the sector would be a short.. If they pop over 50 cents then
I would say the market may recover today and end UP... For example,
AMZN is gapping down from 44.76 to 43.95 .. It can pop to 44.45,
where it would become a short... but if it climbs over 44.50,
it would be a key indication the market intends to recover.. Also
watch the gap as we approach the open. If it fades then it would
be a negative sign and we may dive early with no pop..
QCOM is gapping up on earnings so it may give a boost to the semis
in general, so I will be watching that sector for leadership...
If the market intends to recover today, they will climb early
with minimal selling.. We have a yo-yo environment and anything
can happen at anytime..
The Internets did pop over 50 cents
and the market did recover and end UP... We have an amazing yo-yo
market. I have seen them before but NOT as dramatic. The QQQ is
really swinging from day to day... YHOO popped a dollar from the
open, AMZN made it up 1.20, ASKJ a dollar, so we had a very good
indication the market would do well.. We saw them sell off the
highs which gave the shorts their due but climbed back off the
lows to make new highs.. The semis did much the same but did not
quite have the momentum as the nets.. The QQQ took its time getting
off its duff remaining rather narrow until about 2 1/2 hours into
the day when it climbed off 34.25 to 35.10...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - JNPR did reasonably well in a crummy market yesterday so
I am going to suggest you trade it, if you are so inclined...
Treat it like a scalp.. It is currently gapping from 22.97 to
23.15.. I would expect this stock to hold 23 if the market intends
to recover.. If it goes under 23 we may see more selling again
today... 23.50 would be my upside target... LOW RISK (in a high
risk environment)
JNPR did nicely again moving up
from 23.08 to 23.55... If one were so inclined it was also a good
short off my high target... dropping from 23.55 to 22.45 and then
bounced back to 23.35.. very nice swings for a low risk stock...
GOOD NEWS:
QCOM, SYMC, LRCX - Good Earnings news for each... These stocks
are not predictable due to the weird market behavior... We should
see them sell down at the open but how much is not predictable...
Watch and react..
QCOM climbed from the open with
no selling +4 bucks!! SYMC dropped from 44.20 to 41.... We noticed
the non participation at 35.50 and suggested it would be an 80%
short thanks to sunlight.. LRCX did like QCOM and climbed from
the open from 21 to 24.50..
BAD NEWS:
EBAY, SWIR - These stocks are weak and not dumpers... They can
sell down before gaining some traction... MERQ did really well
yesterday and we saw some nice pre open support.. Look for similar
action prior to the open and consider buying the first bottom
on the best one... Watch and React..
EBAY climbed +7 from the open...
and SWIR climbed 1.50, dropped 2.50 and climbed 3.00.. nice swings...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 21, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking happy this morning and the gaps seem pretty
uniform. We have been seeing some switcho chango action with the
semis and nets, in that one will be strong one day then weaker
the next... The QQQ is gapping up again which means that we have
a chance of another UP day today..
We should see some selling at the open based on profit taking
but generally the strong stocks climb pretty early.. I will be
watching the telecoms for signs of strength as ERICY has reported
some impressive earnings.. It appears NOK is going to be a company
specific story... We should see RIMM recover today after the weakness
yesterday but it will be a key indicator for any unexpected negativity...
Lets watch the nets, SINA, ASKJ,YHOO and AMZN this morning for
potential leadership... With the semis lets watch KLAC, BRCM,
NVLS.. QCOM should do well also... Lots to pick from.. My good
News stocks are: ERICY, MSFT, ROXI... bad news is: IMCL, MERQ..
Watch the gaps if they begin to fade going into the open we may
get a pullback (profit taking) day...
Well, it was one very strange day.
If you look at a daily chart of the QQQ, I don't think you will
find two back to back days like Tuesday and yesterday. We were
as weak yesterday as we were strong the day before. Wow! The QQQ
dropped from the open around 35.62 to 34.50 where it ended the
day. There were no bounces worth mentioning. Luckily for us ASKJ
gave us an early indication that the market was not well which
prompted me to sell my long positions and I took my profits, wheww.
Since the Market obviously changed on us, it was important to
watch key stocks and not jump in long until we actually saw buying.
The action was "scalps only" for the faster traders..
NTMD and TASR did the best on my screen, ending in the green.
LOW RISK:
JNPR - Lets watch JNPR today... MSFT has news and should get some
selling that is tough to guess... quite a few traders are long
from last night and will probably sell this morning... JNPR is
currently gappin up from 24.30 to 24.60.. I would expect selling
to as low as 24.40 but it should climb to 25 in a strong market...
LOW RISK
JNPR appeared to be on target dropping
to 24.30 and climbing to 24.75 but had you not taken the early
gains you would have taken a stop as it dropped with the market
to 22.80...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: MSFT
Sector: Software..
News: declaring a dividend and stock buyback...
Chart Snapshot: Nice uptrend since march around 24 to a recent
high at just under 29.. currently climbing off a recent low around
27.25...
Expectation: We have quite a few traders long from the news yesterday
after hours so I would expect selling... The current gap is up
from 28.32 to 29.70 ... I think the upside potential is about
30.. This should be a short to 29.50 at least and can drop to
29... If it holds 29.50 it can go over 30 and if it drops under
29.50 will probably only make it back to 29.80 to 30 at the most...
LOW RISK
MSFT did not hold 29.50 and as such
became a pretty good short moving down to 29 where it bounced
back to 29.35 and hit the skids down to 28.80.. Nice action for
a low risk stock..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: ERICY
Sector: telecom
News: Very good earnings...
Chart Snapshot: dropping from a recent high around 30... mostly
due to the bad news from NOK
Expectation: I would expect some selling on the gap but this stock
can perform well today... The current gap is up from 26.65 to
29.30... tough to say how many bought after the news hit but we
should get some selling.. I think this stock can move up to 30
but if it does so, will hold 29.. if it moves under 29, I will
look for buying off 28.50 with a potential at just over 29...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
ERICY sold down pre open to 28.80
which was indicative of a drop to at least 28.50... It tried to
bounce at 28.65 making it as high as 29.10 which was close to
my target.. It then hit the skids with the market dropping from
29.10 to 27.50...
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: MERQ
Sector: Software
News: Missed expectations...
Chart Snapshot: indicated a bottom yesterday after a steep decline
from Junes highs at 51...
Expectation: Currently gapping down from 42.73 to 34.30 ..so far
the support is around 33.80 and it has climbed to around 34.50....
its back down to 34.30 so we should see support at just under
34.. I think the first bottom is worth persuing as this stock
can recover to 36.... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
MERQ moved really well but unfortunately
for most it did so pre open. It opened around 36.70 which put
my upside target at 38, so the first bottom was still a good consideration...
It dropped to 35.40 and then took off making it to 38... Very
nice momentum, especially for such an ugly day...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 20, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning... Housing
starts are softer than expected indicating the economy is slowing
down. We are entrenched in a downtrend but saw signs of recovery
yesterday afternoon. The QQQ ended above mid range which indicates
we have a potential bottom. If that is the case we should see
minimal selling and early buying which is the normal pattern for
a strongly recovering market.
The semis were in the lead yesterday and the nets were very weak
but made a climb late in the day.. I will be watching both sectors
along with the Telecoms (RIMM in the lead) today and try to catch
the action. With the diverse action yesterday its not going to
be a predictable situation again, sigh...
I am seeing some weak gaps this morning which leads me to believe
we may see more selling, so be cautious as anything can happen
at anytime... The longer term indications if the QQQ holds the
gap up, is for us to end UP today... 70% chance in my opinion..
The Market decided to change again
as the nets took over the lead again and the semis came dragging
along behind. AMZN, ASKJ,YHOO climbed right from the open with
minimal selling. KLAC was once again the leader in the semis and
climbed much like the nets but QCOM and BRCM sold down quite a
bit before gaining traction. RIMM was very weak moving down most
of the day until the last hour and a half where it bounced 2 bucks...
The overall market did very well as the QQQ took off from the
open around 34.70 and moved up steadily to 35.30 where it ended
the day.. Classic bottom indication on Monday and follow through,
which was nice for the buy and hold crowd..
LOW RISK:
MSFT - This stock has been performing really well lately and has
not sold down much at all... The current gap is up from 27.95
to 28.05... I am guessing this stock will climb from 27.90 to
28... If the market is going to continue its upward momentum started
yesterday afternoon I am guessing MSFT will climb to 28.50 and
can go higher... LOW RISK
MSFT did well moving down to 27.88
and climbed to 28.50... very close to my targets... I went long
at 28 before it dropped and took a stop loss, then I got distracted
and did not re-enter... shows how important timing is to successful
trading...
GOOD NEWS:
Be cautious with the news because FLSH was really bad yesterday...
SONSE - Good earnings,, this stock is bouncing off 3 in the last
3 days.... currently gapping up from 4.10 to 5.. I would watch
for a long around 4.50... Can go to 5.. If it takes off from 4.80
and climbs, it can make it as high as 5.50, depends on daytraders..
LOW RISK
SONSE dropped under 4.80 which meant
my target was from 4.50 to 5... It climbed from 4.63 to 4.94..
not much potential..
ABFS - Good earnings,, ABFS is on a steep uptrend from 25 to 33
recently... Pulled back to 30 and bouncing... The current gap
is up from 31.48 to 33.90 ... We have resistance at 34 so I would
expect this stock to be an early short and should fall under 33...
It can pop to 34 or just over so watch it carefully... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK..
ABFS did as expected moving down
sharply from 34.40 to 33 and bounced back to 34.20 near the end
of the day..
BAD NEWS:
TASR - Seeks to boost auth shares to 200M from 50M.. this will
really dilute the earnings... Currently down from 36.32 to 34..
This stock will probably drop to at least 33 before any buying
interest comes in... its an early short for experienced traders...
MEDIUM RISK
Early shorting was a very good idea
as it dropped from 35.10 to 30.50 near the end of the day... It
did bounce from 31.10 to 32.60 in the early going but hit the
skids again and dropped to 30.50... excellent negative momo..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 19, 2004
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market was so darn dismal on Friday that the percentages are
for early shorts today... We have some steep declines on several
indexes, QQQ, RTH (Retail), SMH (Semis), SWH (Software), HHH (Internets)
.. Where we find value and bounce is unknown, all we can do is
watch for signs of recovery from the stocks that have moved down
the most... RIMM recovered very well on Friday in the early going
so I will be watching it carefully.. The nets look the weakest
this morning so consider shorting them off the first highs which
might be right from the open... (faster traders only) ASKJ, YHOO,
AMZN...
The QQQ opened at 34.80 made a small
climb to 34.92 and then dropped to 34.48 where it made another
late day climb to a new daily high at 34.95.. The semis were in
the lead today while the nets hit the skids and made a weak climb
the last two hours.. RIMM dropped a dollar then climbed +2.40...
tough trading environment with such diverse action...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: FLSH
Sector: Semiconductor
News: Raising Guidance
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low at just above 13 after
a steep decline from April highs around 23..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 15.22 to 16.90... Friday
the good news stocks did not do very well.. This is a good story
and this stock can move up as high as 17.50.. I would look for
a long position around 16.50... Its worth a stop loss should the
market repeat its crappy performance like Friday.. LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
FLSH did miserably handing me an
early stop loss.. With the buying in semis, this stock with this
type of story should have climbed nicely BUT.. it dropped from
16.70 at the open to 14.60 with a 85 cent bounce... Very strange
action, almost like someone with a ton of shares was waiting for
this news...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: TASR
Sector: security weapons
News: Safety concerns raised by NY Times article
Chart Snapshot: Trying to bottom off 40 on a pullback from 49..
Expectation: The current gap is down from 40.24 to 38.24... I
would think the first bottom would be worth persuing which can
occur below 38... Watch and react.. I would at least expect a
+1.00 recovery... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
TASR opened around 37.80 climbed
to 38.25 then dropped to 36.50 where it bounced for the first
bottom up to 38.50.. Good action if you could read it properly..
______________________________________________________
Symbol: BLTI
Sector: Medical Instruments
News: Sees Q2 EPS flat - Revs below expectations
Chart Snapshot: Big downtrend from January at 21 down to 11 where
it bounced to 15 and back to 12 on Friday...
Expectation: The gap is down from 12.05 to 8.40.. This stock should
be worth persuing around 8 bucks... I would expect at least a
50 cent climb and can go as high as +1.00 off the low... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK
BLTI did well off 8.20 making it
as high as 9.15.. excellent momentum for an 8 dollar stock..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 16, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy with inflation in check and good CPI numbers.
We have a few stocks that are less happy than the average so that
would indicate we might continue to get more sector specific moves
that moves away from the market. My weaker stocks are: BRCM, AAPL,
AMZN.. So lets use some caution today when picking our trades..
Telecom stocks seem to be recovering but should sellers come in
to any great degree watch the above weak stocks and the telecoms,
RIMM, ERICY, SWIR.. NOK should still weigh them down... If these
climb early it would indicate a strong market...
It was a dismal day for the bulls..
The QQQ dropped very slowly with very minimal buying from 35.45
to 34.65.. RIMM dropped from 62.50 down to 59.10 which indicated
a weak market but bounced back to 63 where it ended the day..
ERICY did not bounce more than 30 cents dropping from 27.25 to
26.75.. SWIR moved down from the open from 30.62 down to 30.22
climbed to 31.10... The semis dropped all day long with no bounces..
The nets were not much better.. A dismal day for the bulls...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: DELL
Sector: computer manuf.
News: Raising Guidance..
Chart Snapshot: flat around 35 since may..
Expectation: the current gap is up from 34.87 to 35.90... We saw
some very early buying yesterday on our good news stocks so we
may see a repeat today... I would guess that DELL can pullback
to around 35.50 before climbing but that would be a 40% probability...
60% chance of moving up from 35.80 and should go as high as 36.50...
LOW RISK
DELL dropped from 35.75 to 35.45
and climbed to 35.85.. Opening under my 35.80 target indicated
it was not very strong.....
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: RMBS
Sector: Semiconductor, memory chips
News: Beats expectations
Chart Snapshot: Long steep downtrend from 36 last Feb... appeared
to bottom yesterday around 15..
Expectation: Nice looking chart for a potential recovery... Normally
steep downtrends like this get selling as they climb... so I would
expect some selling from the open... The gap is up from 15.29
to 17.90 .. I would expect selling to as low as 17 and can go
under.. I think 18. to 18.50 is about all the upside I would expect...
Watch the gap.. if it holds and the stock bounces off 17.50 it
can go as high as 18.50.... if it goes under 17.50 it will probably
only go to 18.... MEDIUM RISK
RMBS sold down as expected moving
from 18.20 to 16.50 with no bounce...
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: NFLX
Sector: Music and Video Stores
News: 2Q net declines
Chart Snapshot: uptrend from May from 25 to 36 and back down to
32 yesterday..
Expectation: The current gap is down from 32 to 26.50.. We will
have to watch for support pre open and then consider buying this
stock off the first bottom.. Our last dumper made two bottoms
and climbed so-so... If we don't see much support it will be a
short close to the open... MEDIUM RISK
NFLX took a dive from the open at
27 and made multiple bottoms... It dropped to 23 with no bounces...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: HOTT
Sector: Apparel Clothing
News: Cuts 2Q view
Chart Snapshot: Steep downtrend from last January at 32... moved
down to around 19 where it is trying to bounce...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 19.06 to 16.. I don't
see any support so it will probably move down from the open...
the first bottom will be worth persuing... should be above 15...
unpredictable... watch and react... MEDIUM RISK
HOTT moved up early from 16 to 16.70...
It slowly moved down to 15.45... Not much momentum with dumpers
today... Not much upward momentum with anything today...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 15, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy after a nice surprise with the PPI numbers...
Inflation is not a problem and now the market will worry about
deflation again... sigh... We saw some very good buying yesterday
with the nets and semis were weak and sold down but bounced OK..
Today we have good numbers from AAPL and SNDK which will draw
in some buyers no doubt, BUT we have a warning with NOK... So
telecom related stocks can sell down and are probably worth shorting
in the early going... Look for gaps down on the weaker ones and
consider shorting...
We have a diverse market in which some stocks and/or sectors can
do well with early buying and others fall... This action will
keep us on our toes and shorting is worth persuing but difficult
to time.. Our good news stocks did very well yesterday so I am
going to look for nice action with the gappers UP today, TASR,
SNDK, and AAPL...
Today we saw another change.. The
switch was the semis were strong and the nets weak.. The QQQ climbed
from the open around 35.30 to 35.44 then dropped to 35.10 where
it bounced again to 35.48 and ended the day around 35.18.. Pretty
blah day.. Review todays class for a detailed description of the
action...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - JNPR did very well yesterday on good news and it should
do well again today if the market climbs and does not throw us
a curve... Stops should be easier to keep on this stock.. The
current gap is up from 24.59 to 24.62... We will be looking for
a bounce off 24.50 and a move to and can go over 25...
JNPR dropped more than I expected
moving down from 24.50 to 24.05 but the bounce was very good moving
up to 24.83... For some reason it was a bit weaker than its peers..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: AAPL
Sector: computer manuf.
News: Good earnings,, beat est..
Chart Snapshot: Trying to bottom around 29, yesterdays low after
a steep drop at the end of June from 34..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 29.58 to 32.35.. This
stock can go as high as 33... I would expect selling before the
buyers come in and its not very predictable... My rough guess
is that it will hold 32 if its going to 33... if it goes under
33... It will probably bottom around 32.80 but only make it back
to 33.50... LOW RISK
AAPL took off from the open around
32.55 to 33.60... very nice move for AAPL.. It dropped pretty
fast to 32.10 where it bounced again up to 33.20.. two very nice
swings...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: SNDK
Sector: Data Storage devices
News: beat estimates on good earnings...
Chart Snapshot: struggling with a recent bottom around 19 after
a very long downtrend from 42 in November of 2003 down to recent
lows around 19 this last June..
Expectation: This could be a nice shot in the arm for data storage
sector.. You may wish to take a look at EMC and NTAP which seem
to be rising in sympathy.. NTAP is my favorite and not gapping
up too much... EMC should be low risk also.. both are coming off
recent lows... SNDK is gapping up from 19.98 to 24.40... I think
it can go as high as 25 tops.. so look for buying off 24... if
it goes under 24 it will have front runners and probably drop
as low as 23.50 and only make it back to just over 24... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK
SNDK did much like AAPL moving up
from the open at 24.40 to 25.78... It then dropped to 24.38 where
the bounce was so-so moving to 25...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: TASR
Sector: security weapons manuf.
News: 3 new orders from big metro police depts..
Chart Snapshot: Recently climbed on news from 25 to 49 and drifting
back to around 39...
Expectation: This stock keeps getting new orders and can do well...
It usually sells down around a dollar before popping and I strongly
suspect we have traders expecting this type of news... The current
gap is up from 39.75 to 41.45... It can go down to just above
40 before bouncing depending on how many traders are front running
the news... not really predictable but it should go up around
+2 off the bottom... watch and react... MEDIUM RISK
TASR moved down a dollar from 41.25
to 40.20 but only made it up to 40.95... so-so upward momo...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 14, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking quite negative this morning on the heels
of Intels disappointing earnings. I am watching KLAC as it will
begin to climb if the market intends to recover... We have some
good news with JNPR which is guiding higher but the action is
not predictable... MOGN also has some good results and is gapping
up...
Retail sales were disappointing so its going to be another rocky
day in which the market is not very predictable... Normally on
days in which the gaps are down, we get early buying so that is
what I will be looking for, but we will wish to short the highs...
The action has been developing slowly so its a real test of patience..
We saw another break in the techs..
Semis did not do so well while nets did very well... buyers are
picky and hitting some stocks and ignoring others until they see
decent selling that creates value. BRCM dropped a dollar before
bouncing 1.50.... KLAC sold down 1.80 before bouncing 90 cents...
NVLS sold down a dollar and bounced 80 cents... Yet, YHOO climbed
with minimal selling from 29.80 to 31.15.. AMZN climbed with minimal
selling from 48.90 go 50.35... ASKJ climbed with minimal selling
from 30.55 to 32.30.. and SINA moved up from 25.30 to 27.30..
We saw 2 hours of buying then the market started to drift down
ending about where it started, so once again the action formed
slowly and it was tough to time.. The QQQ climbed from 35.10,
after opening around 35.20, up to 35.65 from 9:30 am eastern to
11:30 am then started a drift down to 35.05..
JNPR - Missed by 4 cents but beat with revs.. 250 million buyback
announced and guiding higher.. The selling is not predictable
but I feel it can make it as high as 24... I will be interested
in the first bottom which may occur at just under 23.50... Watch
the gap as we approach the open.. It will probably provide us
with a clue... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
JNPR moved up with the market from
23.70 with very minimal selling...... It made it up to 25.10...
It held up nicely pre open which is always a sign of strength...
MOGN - 2Q profit fueled by Chemo Drug.. good results... Looking
at the chart its pretty steeply entrenched in a downtrend from34
to yesterdays low which appeared to be the bottom.. The current
gap is up from 26.07 to 27.30... Due to the steep drop I would
expect some selling to around 26.80 to 27.. If it holds 27 it
can go over 28... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MOGN opened much higher than when
I wrote the email.. dropping from 28.80 to 27.80 then bouncing
very nicely to 29.65... Good Momentum
INTC - in line earnings with lowered views going forward... The
stock is gapping down from 26.14 to 24.43... We may see Intel
go to 24 or under before buyers get interested.. the first bottom
is worth persuing... LOW RISK
INTC sold down from 24.10 to 23.80
and bounced to 24.10 and then dropped back down to 23.60 and bounced
again to 24.. Minimal bounces so it was disappointing and you
had to be willing to take very small profits...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 13, 2004
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Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive after slowly recovering
yesterday. The nets were in the lead yesterday but later in the
afternoon the semis joined them as buyers found value. The operative
word is recovery which means that when sellers take stocks down,
eventually they will get bought. The nets were bought early and
the semis later so when to go long is a tough decision.
We will have to look for early leadership with the nets again,
SINA, YHOO, AMZN, ASKJ and keep an eye on the semis... We have
another important earnings report this evening with Intel so the
action may be muted.. Its simply not predictable..
JNJ reported some impressive earnings so keep an eye on the drug
sector it can do very well today... AMGN is looking strong.. WATCH
those gaps as they may give us an indication of what the market
intends to do in the early action!!
It was a real mix this morning with
some stocks doing so so to the upside early... .and others doing
poorly... I tried a long on QCOM and watched it drop and give
us a negative signal for the market... It was stopped... ASKJ
dropped with no buying.. YHOO and SINA dropped with minimal buying...
AMZN popped a dollar before dropping... then popped another dollar
later in the day... KLAC, NVLS and BRCM slowly drifted down then
hit the skids hard late in the day with very minimal buying...
tough day of trading.. The QQQ Opened at 35.68, climbed to 35.80
then drifted down slowly to 35.43... a real yawner...
NEWS:
INFY - fairly low volume but good earnings report.. net profit
up 40%.. The gap is up from 43.94 to 47.10... the gap is up pretty
big so the selling will not be predictable... but it can move
up to 48... MEDIUM RISK
INFY made a very nice swing.. moving
down from 47 to 45 then popped to 47.30...
QCOM - 2 for 1 split... The gap is up from 69.45 to 70.65 .. the
selling is not predictable but the stock is capable of moving
to 72 today with decent buying.... I would guess 70.20 to 70.40
up to 72... MEDIUM RISK
QCOM was a dead stock til it sold
down from 70.60 to 69.65, almost a dollar which was a surprise..
I thought it would hold 70 and got stopped... It popped from 69.65
to 70.40... much like the market... a yawner...
FCEL - Upgraded... the current gap is up from 9.53 to 10.50...
I think this stock can do well off the first low... can move over
11 and if it ends the day above mid range would be a good intermediate
term trade... The bottom should be from 10.20 to 10.40 ... LOW
RISK...
FCEL opened at 10.00 and climbed
to 11... Good Trade!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 12, 2004
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Pre-market Commentary
The Futures are improving from early lows and the operative word
today will be "recover?" Can we recover from the recent
lows??? We have been seeing early signs of strength led by the
semis while the internets are weak..
The QQQ is trying its best to move up off 35.50... If we move
under 35.50 today we can see lows around 35.. SMH (semi sector)
is doing well ovv the recent low but Merrill Lynch is downgrading
today which may have a negative effect... Semis and Internets
will indicate a strongly recovering market if they can move up
early again with a minimal amount of selling (less than 40 cents)
...
We should be looking for shorts if we can time the highs today..
I will be looking for anywhere around 80 cents to a dollar of
upside potential with key stocks such as, QCOM, KLAC, BRCM, ..
SINA, YHOO, AMZN ... if the market does recover and we get early
buying again..
AIRT, TASR, are active and appear to be strong.. The selling is
not predictable but they should move up early if they intend to
do well...
The early going was again a mix
as the market punished the semis and the nets held up reasonably
well.. The buying was sparse across the board.. YHOO climbed from
29.65 to 30.20 before selling down to 29.55 where it slowly climbed
to 30.35 near the end.. ASKJ dropped from 32 to 31.50 and climbed
to 33... AMZN popped from 48 at the open to 49.33.. The semis
did miserably in the early going dropping quite a bit before a
slow recovery.. KLAC dropped from 44.70 to 43.50 before a slow
climb back to 44.70... NVLS dropped from 29.75 to 29 and recovered
to 30.. BRCM dropped from 38.85 to 37.60 and slowly climbed to
38.85... QCOM moved down from 70.30 down to 68.90 before moving
up to 69.75... The QQQ dropped from 35.65 to 35.25 and climb back
to 35.70.. The operative word was recovery once again...
NEWS:
CALM - Decent earnings report... Its in an upward moving channel
from 10 the first part of May... The current gap is up from 14.09
to 15.41.. This stock can pullback as low as 15 so we will need
to watch it carefully... The selling will depend on how many front
runners we have but we are early and we should not have too many.....
It can climb as much as 16 but I doubt it goes over... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK
CALM moved up from 15.70 to 16.40
then fell to 15.55 where it climbed back to 16.15... It never
went as low as I expected and climbed over 16 which indicates
we don't have many front runners so far...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I like this stock for early action... If the semis do reasonably
well this stock will move up early... The current gap is down
from 23.16 to 22.98... I would expect to see buying off 22.80
and a potential move to 23.30.. LOW RISK
JNPR was stopped as it took a dive
with the semis... It fell from 22.80 to 22.03 before climbing
back to 22.50...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 9, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking positive this morning and gaps are generally
up. We saw some good buying yesterday in the early going and I
am expecting much the same thing today. We should get some selling
on the gaps up but I doubt it will be over 40 cents on average
with the semis and internets... We should see YHOO sell down the
most if sellers do nail the market to a greater degree than what
I expect. I will be watching for key stocks to sell down before
bottoming, ASKJ, TASR... I think the upside should be at least
a dollar before sellers come in...
Lets watch the gaps, if they hold up going into the open then
I would expect early strength as outlined above.. If we see gaps
disappear then it means the market may dive more than I expect
before buyers come in...
The QQQ climbed early from 35.80
to 36.05 but then made new lows as it drifted down to 35.63 and
then climbed back to 35.90 near the end of the day... YHOO and
the nets gave us a negative signal which indicated we would not
do too well to the upside today... YHOO moved down from 30.90
with no significant bounces til it hit 29.60, 3 hours after the
open and then the bounce was only worth 60 cents... ASKJ did better
dropping from 32.40 to 31.40 and bouncing to 32.50.. AMZN followed
YHOO and did nothing all day falling from 49.94 to 47.89... The
semis did much better, moving as we expected.. Most moved up from
80 cents to a dollar.. TASR dropped about 70 cents and popped
from 40 to 41.75...
JNPR - I would look for about 20 cents in selling at the most...
The current gap is up from 22.65 to 22.95... We should see this
stock climb from around 22.80 to 23.50 and can go a bit higher...
LOW RISK
JNPR moved up from 22.72 to 23.30...
It climbed right from the open as most of the selling occurred
during the pre open... review Fridays class for a detail of the
trade...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 8, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking very negative this morning due to the bad
reaction to YHOOs earnings. At this time the futures are recovering
on the good jobless claims numbers. I think we have a 70% chance
of recovering today which means we will see early buying and minimal
selling depending on the gaps at the open. We may recover before
the open enough to produce some selling before buyers re-enter...
This market is a real exercise in patience as the anticpated predictability
is not enough to take us out of "watch and react" mode...
The faster traders will do the best in this type of environment.
The largest gaps down should recover the best which means, YHOO,
TASR, QCOM, BRCM, ASKJ, and AMZN will probably do the best if
indeed the market recovers as I suspect it will...
I will be looking for opportunity to go short today if I can read
the highs... I am expecting about 50 to 80 cents in buying on
key semi stocks like KLAC, BRCM, NVLS before the rats decide to
jump ship...
The market climbed early and we
saw some good potential before the sellers hit us. YHOO moved
up with minimal selling from 29 to 31.20.. TASR dropped from 40.50
to 38.50 before it popped to 41 which is what it usually does
makin it tougher to trade.. QCOM climbed with minimal selling
from 71 to 72 before dropping back to 70.40 but had some negative
comments which contributed to the drop.. BRCM moved up with minimal
selling from 38.60 to 39.80... ASKJ sold down from 31.60 to 31.10
then popped to 32.80 which gave us some time to read the bottom
and go long... AMZN climbed from the open at 48.50 to 49.95....
KLAC climbed from the open at 44.80 to 45.60.. All in all we had
good momentum and if you were able to read the highs good shorting
potential...
LOW RISK:
NVDA and JNPR - Yesterday these stocks climbed about 40 to 50
cents before topping... I am going to look for about the same
type of action again... If you miss the early lows we will try
to catch the highs and go short...
NVDA was a bit on the strange side
moving up early as expected from 18 to 18.35 but very quickly...
then dropped to 17.80.. iffy momentum.. JNPR did very well moving
up from 22.55 to 23.45... excellent momentum..
NEWS:
CKFR - 5 yr contract extension with Wachovia... extensions are
not as good as new contracts.. The gap is up from 28.46 to 30.15...
This is a short over 30......... Can pop to 30.50 before dropping
so watch it carefully but I feel it will drop to 29.50... LOW
TO MEDIUM RISK
CKFR popped more than I expected
moving to 31.40 before dropping to 30 and then climbed nicely
back to 31.90... good swings..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 7, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
We continue to get warnings and the latest is PeopleSoft (PSFT)...
The software sector should drop again today... SWH should end
weak again.. The QQQ has dropped in three days from just under
38 to just under 36 yesterday... Where we find value and buyers
begin to move in is unpredictable so we will have another watch
and react day. KEEP STOPS and preserve equity!!!
Our stronger stocks are still doing well and we should continue
to watch them move up as the strongest move up early.. KMRT, TASR,
NVEC, AIRT... We should also get leadership with the nets as they
recovered reasonably well yesterday.. BRCM hit the skids big time
yesterday moving down 4 dollars so if the market intends to recover
it will probably climb early..
The nets are looking weak so far... Lets watch the gaps, if they
don't strengthen then it very well may be another big droppin
day... Semis are looking like they might recover... YHOO kicks
off the earnings season tonight so it will probably reflect how
traders are feeling about earnings season today...
The dumpers are not doing very well lately and should be watched
for shorts at the first highs... Our list today is: PSFT, SCUR,
FILE, ASCL ...
The Market took off early with minimal
selling.. Software recovered with the market which was a surprise...
With the warnings I would have thought it would continue down.
The QQQ found value at 35.92 and climbed to 36.25 and ended the
day at 36.10.. Our swingers participated in the early buying but
quickly did an about face and hit the skids.. KMRT climbed +3
and dropped 5.50... TASR climbed a dollar and sold down 4 dollars...
AIRT dropped 5.80 with no buying... and NVEC dropped 7 dollars
.. Most of the potential was on the downside.. The semis were
in the lead and gave us some good early potential for those who
could react... The dumpers did well moving off the early lows
PSFT actually moving into the green... If you could read the highs
shorts did well overall.. I picked on PSFT and MSFT and both were
stopped.....
LOW RISK:
JNPR and NVDA - I will be watching these two if the semis take
off (BRCM should be in the lead).. Watch and React day....
NVDA and JNPR both climbed early
with minimal selling... NVDA moving up to 18.72 from 18.33...
JNPR moved up from 22.64 to 23.14...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 6, 2004
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative this morning after a decent holiday
week end. I would have thought we would open up due to no real
terrorist problems over the week end. VRTS warned and is down
pretty big (over 20%) so that certainly will not help us recover
today... Normally we see early buying on gaps down so that is
what I am going to expect. Our leaders UP will probably be TASR,
RIMM, NVEC and CECO... We may see some selling prior to the bounces
like Friday so they will be a "watch and react" proposition
for faster traders.
The internets did the best on Friday so I will be looking for
leadership from that group. The semis are weak and will probably
be a very good short after the buyers ease up... I would also
consider shorting SWH as it appears the software sector may start
a longer term downtrend...
The Market opened and hit the skids..
The QQQ opened around 36.60 and dropped to 35.85 before it bounced
late in the day to 36.15.. TASR provided some nice potential again
moving up early from 44.10 to 45.65 and back down to 43.70.. RIMM
dropped from 70.40 and hit 67.80 before bouncing to 68.60.. NVEC
climbed early like TASR moving from 42.50 to 46.85.. CECO moved
from 41.50 to 42.80.. KMRT also did very well again.. It was a
day in which trying to find the bottoms cost some stops as most
stocks did not bounce til they sold down quite a bit. SWH made
a very good short moving down from 35.70 to 34.50...
VRTS - We should see some good upward action at the first bottom
but the dumpers have been weakening so be careful and keep close
stops... The current gap is down from 26.55 to 19.80... I would
expect support above 19... 19.50 probably... and it should climb
to 20.50 at least... MEDIUM RISK
VRTS fell from the open ay 19.60
straight down to 17.75 before bouncing to 18.50.. It made multiple
bottoms and never did bounce much at all...dumpers continue to
weaken..
CNXT - earnings warning... The stock is down from 4.08 to 2.65...
so far there is no support... lets consider going long around
2.50... I think it can give up +.50 cents to around 3... LOW RISK
CNXT gave us a good bottom at 2.20
and climbed lto 2.45 where it was called a sell... not bad but
not near as good as MUSE that dropped from 5.20 to 4 and moved
back up to 5.25... very big move for a small stock...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 2, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is awful for longs with a few exceptions... Yesterday,
RIMM, NVEC, KMRT and TASR were some of the stronger stocks...
The internets and semis took a nose dive... We will not be able
to go long before we see buyers with BRCM again probably but you
can certainly try to catch RIMM, NVEC, KMRT if they show signs
of strength... You have to be fast and keep close stops.. TASR
has news again and might be a wild one.. selling and buying is
not predictable...
We also have some bad news stocks that might provide us with some
opportunity... AAPL, MAMA, CECO... CECO will probably be the best
the news does not seem all that bad and its already recovering...
Its going to be a major watch and react day... Our best percentages
and opportunity will be shorting early again... I am seeing some
gaps up so we could see a few pops before we drop..
RIMM popped 1.20 from the open then
dropped 2 before bouncing again.. NVEC hit the skids moving from
46.20 down to just above 42 and bounced 2.50.. KMRT dropped from
75.50 to 74 then popped to 79... TASR dropped from 45.40 to 44.10
and back to 45.10... Good Potential if you can read the mixed
action .. BRCM never really bounced at all... AAPL did well moving
from 30.60, down to 29.80 then back up to 31.10.. MAMA made it
up 60 cents and CECO dropped from 43.50 to 41.80 and only climbed
60 cents.. After some initial selling the nets did fairly well
with the exception of YHOO.. ASKJ dropped nearly a dollar but
bounced almost 2.. AMZN dropped a dollar then bounced 1.30...
The QQQ was narrow and typical of pre holiday markets, moving
from 37.05 from the open down to 36.63 and back up to 39.93..
Uncertain momentum as buyers were picky... difficult trading environment...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For July 1, 2004
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking rather flat to slightly negative. The gaps
are indicating we have sellers lurking and ready to take us down..
Faster traders should be looking for early shorts with the internets
as they appear to be the weaker sector. We should at least drop
50 cents from the open and can go down more... The semis are looking
the strongest this morning and if our recent pattern holds should
see about 40 cents in selling and potential bounces, KLAC, NVLS,
BRCM.. Low risk trades would be JNPR, NVDA which should not sell
down more than 20 cents..
Our big movers from yesterday, TASR and RIMM are showing weakness
and may provide some nice upward swings after the rats jump ship
(sellers get done and they bottom)... Lets watch the gaps as we
approach the open... if they start to strengthen it will probably
mean the market intends to climb today.. If they weaken the market
will probably sell down...
Remember its a holiday week end so we may see some narrow uncertain
low volume action as lazy traders take off early... Stay on your
toes as this market may change at any time...
Shorting early was a good idea as
the market sold and sold and sold then sold some more.. Wow, trying
to find the bottoms was an exercise in stopping out. I was waiting
til BRCM bounced and lost my patience as value became very compelling
and called a bottom but got stopped out. BRCM and most others
took over 4 hours before a bottom was found and then the bounces
were little more than scalps. Phils room did well on a few select
stocks like NVEC, RIMM, TASR, and KMRT but the overall market
was deadernadoorknob for longs.. The QQQ dropped from 37.70 to
36.78 before moving up to 37.10...
NEWS:
YHOO - this stock has a downgrade and should recover ... The current
gap is down from 36.40 to 35.11... I would expect some selling
but the first bottom should be worth looking at... I am guessing
34.50 to 34.80.. It should move up to 35.50 to 36 depending on
the buying attitude of the market today... I am expecting buyers...
how many is uncertain... LOW RISK
The first bottom came at 34.30 and
it bounced up to 34.85.. Not much buying as the market took a
dive...
QLGC - Also has a downgrade... The current gap is down from 26.59
to 26.20... This stock is a short above 26 as I expect it to fall
slowly to 25 to 25.50 ... LOW RISK
QLGC Popped to 27 and stopped out
the early short over 26 unless you scalped it.. It dropped from
26.30 to 25.76 and then released news of a stock buyback which
caused a pop to 27 where it topped and dropped back to just above
26...
BOBJ - Release of a new product.. This is usually not a big deal
unless the product is really revolutionary... It is currently
gapping up from 22.58 to 23.56 ... I think this stock is a short
and should fall under 23... LOW RISK
Good short as BOBJ moved from 23.55
down to 22.50...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 30, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is slightly positive this morning but the volume is
very light. It seems there are few traders who wish to jump in
front of the feds announcing the fate of the rate. We are trading
in a difficult environment where the market is changing from day
to day... Yesterday the semis were in the lead and the internets
were weak... ASKJ offerred some nice momentum due to a dollar
in selling but it was unusual because it sold down much more than
my other stocks on my screen.
One thing that is consistent but of little help to medium to lower
skilled traders is the stronger stocks move up early with minimal
selling BUT the selling was pretty uniform yesterday... Security
stocks are back in the forefront as TASR gets another big order,
this time from the military... We will probably get the most action
in that sector.. RIMM also reported good earnings and should be
active.. IPIX has an agreement to distribute its surveilance system
to the middle eastern countries..
The early trading was narrow with
minimal selling. The nets took over again and were the stronger
group. AMZN climbed from the open at 53.53 to 54.43.. YHOO opened
at 36 dropped to 35.70 and climbed to 36.33... SINA threw me a
curve and dropped from 35.80 to 33.80 before it bounced to 35.20
and took another dive to 32.80...sa It had negative news I was
not aware of... The semis dropped about 40 cents and only climbed
40 cents so they were dead... The big action was with the security
stocks.. we caught IPIX off 13.50 with an upside target of 14
and watched it climb over 14 very slowly, easy trade. After the
feds announced we caught some nice upside action and we played
JNPR as a low risk trade which climbed 50 cents..
NEWS STOCKS:
TASR - I would expect this stock capable of moving to 48 today...
so that will be my upside target unless the market intends to
dive which is unlikely... The current gap has been from 39.76
to over 45 and is currently at 45.06.. I would expect some selling
before it takes off but how much is not predictable.. watch and
react with an upside of 48 potential... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
I targeted 44.50 as the downside
potential in which the stock would exhibit strength with a potential
of 48 and it performed well moving up from 44.50 to 45.86 on the
first move up... Unfortunately it then moved under 44.50 which
was a signal of weakness because strong stocks do NOT make 2 bottoms
in the early going, usually... The stock then fell to just over
42 where we caught a nice bottom and it eventually climbed back
to 44.80... Good swings but tough to time...
IPIX - The current gap is up from 13.07 to 14.50... I think the
upside potential is around 15 and can go over... It should bottom
from 14 to 14.20 and if it is going over 15 will probably climb
from 14.40... MEDIUM RISK
We climbed on board at 13.50 as
the stock signaled it would not be going to 15... but we made
an easy 50 cents...
RIMM - Good earnings should help this stock today but the gap
is pretty big.. It is currently up from 59.38 to 65.64... My upside
target will be around 67 but it can fall to 65 or lower... the
selling is not predictable.. MEDIUM RISK
RIMM climbed nicely to 69.. good
Trade...RIMM was your typical strong stock.. rising early and
only making one bottom... It opened around 65.50 dropped to 64.50
and
BAD NEWS:
THOR - Lowers 2Q outlook - The current gap is down from 14.33
to 10.89 ... I will be watching this stock for support prior to
the open and consider the first bottom after the open for a long
position... Probably around 10 to 10.50... Watch and React.. MEDIUM
RISK
THOR never really did much... It
opened at just over 11.. dropped to 10.80 and climbed to 11.30...
so so momo...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - Lets watch JNPR today... I would not expect over 20 cents
in selling and a bottom worth at least 50 cents... The current
gap is from 24.10 to 24.20... so our target will be around 24
and upside 24.50.... LOW RISK
JNPR did well once again which was
nice to see... It bottomed at just under 24 after opening at 24.15
and climbed to 24.42... It made another 50 cent climb after the
feds announced... good safe momentum
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 29, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking pretty flat this morning as the early gaps
are disappearing. Most notable TASR which will probably sell down
a bit then pop then drop again today... If you can time it, the
most potential will be with TASR.. We have darn little news to
give us much predictable momentum and the feds meet today and
announce their decision tomorrow...
I think its going to be a watch and react day where we simply
cannot anticipate the amount of selling and buying... We should
be narrow today with leadership on the downside with the semiconductor
sector, KLAC, NVLS, QCOM,BRCM... and we should see leadership
with any buying with the internets, SINA, YHOO, AMZN...
Our low risk stocks did not do well yesterday so I have no picks
today... Its going to be a tough day... The QQQ is in a yo yo
pattern which means its up one day, down the next.. It recently
climbed off a low at 36 with a two day rally last Tuesday and
Wednesday, then it was down on Thursday, Up on Friday and Down
yesterday...
We saw another market change today..
The Nets were weak and the semis strong.. Yesterday the semis
were strong and the nets were weak. We did catch a very nice bottom
on ASKJ though for well over a dollar... The nice thing about
the early action was the selling down was much more uniform and
readable across the board... the only problem was the nets did
not deliver the performance as well as the semis.. Our lower risk
stocks did better today but the market is in a yo yo pattern and
we may see another change.... The momentum should get better once
we get the feds behind us and start into earnings season next
week... We don't have many warnings so far so it might be another
good one..
NEWS:
OSIP - Granted Fast track for Tarceva ... The current gap is up
from 67.88 to 69.25... I would expect selling down to 68.50 to
68.80.. if it holds 68.80 it will probably move up to 70 where
I would consider a short... if it moves under 68.80 I would expect
the potential to be about 69... MEDIUM RISK
OSIP dropped from the open price
at 69.25 to 68.50, climbed to 69.30 and dropped to another low
at 68.30 and moved up to 69.80... the momentum fooled me but we
did get the scalp from 68.50 to 69.30...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 28, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy due to the early hand over to the new Iraqi
government. The futures are up nicely and we have some good gaps...
The big problem we have been dealing with is two fold. One, is
that the stronger stocks have been climbing very early with little
selling which is tough to trade and Two, the action has been mixed
with some stocks doing well and others not.
Our stronger stocks from Friday were TASR and PLMO which did really
well.. We should get some selling but how much is not predictable..
If the market is indeed going to be strong we should NOT selling
on average over 50 cents.
PLMO is actually up from 22 and is gapping from 33.08 to 34.10...
If this stock opens under 34 it will be weak today... dats my
guess...
The early trading was tough once
again with some stocks giving us a negative signal and others
a positive signal and strong. The semis were weak in the early
going while the nets climbed nicely after some mixed selling...
The semis gave us the right signal as the market refused to climb.
The QQQ opened at 37.50 and tested that high 5 times for 4 hours
then dropped to 36.90.. ASKJ sold down 70 cents before climbing
two dollars,,,, YHOO sold down 80 cents before climbing 1.20,,,
while AMZN did not sell down at all and climbed 1.70... KLAC sold
down 70 cents and climbed 40 cents,,, NVLS sold down 40 cents
and climbed 30 cents.. BRCM sold down 45 cents and climbed 40
cents... PLMO opened under 34 and indeed was weak, moving down
from 33.75 to 31.80 before it bounced to 33.10....
NEWS:
TASR - Large order .. this stock has been really climbing on news
lately and is due a serious pullback... The gap is up from 42.09
to 45.15... We should see this stock open up under 45 if indeed
profit takers are startin to move in... It should pop then drop
if its going to weaken today... the exact values are not predictable..
45.50 would be my rough guess for a top today... If she climbs
early off 44.50 and higher... it can run again today.. MEDIUM
TO HIGH RISK
TASR was wild selling down 2 dollars
and bouncing +4.40 then dropped over 6 dollars and ended weak...
XLNX - Raytheon chooses XLNX to develope enhanced wireless network..
The current gap is up from 32.68 to 33.60... I would expect this
stock to move up off 33.20 to 33.40 if its going to 34... MEDIUM
RISK
XLNX dropped more than it should
have for a strong stock and was weak... It dropped to 32.90 and
bounced to 33.30...
ACTU - to provide soft licenses, training and consulting to university
in china.. The current gap is up from 3.69 to 4.17.. I would look
for action off 4 and expect this stock to climb as high as 4.50...
LOW RISK
ACTU sold down under 4 which would
indicate to me weakness, BUT it bounced off 3.90 to 4.40... good
momo for a cheapie..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - We should watch this stock closely because it takes off
early... I would expect some selling due to the gaps up but how
much is unpredictable.. 20 cents maybe... It is currently gapping
up from 23.89 to 24.29... Lets watch this stock closely above
24... it should move up to 24.75 unless the darn market changes
on us... LOW RISK..
JNPR participated with the semis
and was very weak... too bad cause we lost an old friend...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 25, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking very flat this morning and the volume is
low. The GDP numbers were revised down which is a negative and
we may see some significant selling this morning. Its simply not
predictable with the mixed action we saw yesterday. Some stocks
were strong and some were mediocre to flat.. The nets and semis
were relatively flat... My stronger stocks were MAGS, TASR, NVEC,
PLMO, SINA, QCOM and I will be looking for leadership from this
group.
The pullbacks yesterday were nil to as much as 50 cents and our
biggest problem with this market is that the strongest stocks
rise early with very little selling. This makes them tough to
catch, especially in a limited momentum environment. The news
stocks today are not very impressive so far... We have CRXL and
SIMG..
Some of our stronger stocks failed
to follow through.. TASR and PLMO did very well while the others
did not... SINA and QCOM moved up about a dollar in the early
going then died. The nets and semis did OK getting minimal selling
and so so buying.. The overall market climbed from the open..
The QQQ moved up from 36.98 to 37.39..
CRXL - The current gap is up from 8.23 to 8.89 ... If this stock
moves under 8.80 it will probably go as low as 8.50 but should
pop to around 9.. If it moves up from 8.80 it can make it as high
as 9.50... watch and react.. LOW RISK
CRXL fell under 8.80 moving to 8.63
and only climbed 25 cents...
SIMG - Raises 2Q guidance.. The current gap is up from 10.24 to
11.50.. I don't think this story will carry this stock up much
at all and would be more of a short at anywhere above 11.50...
the volume is light so its higher risk and can be jumpy... MEDIUM
TO HIGH RISK..
SIMG fell from 12.10 to 11.70 at
the best which was not very good... It climbed from 11.50 to 11.80
and a stop there would have been stopped.. Not much selling all
day long...
TASR- This stock is really active and gapping up like it has good
news... It is currently gapping up from 35.42 to 37.55.. How much
selling we see is unpredictable.. If its going to run it will
do so off 37.... which will mean it can go as high as 39... if
it falls under 37 it will probably only make it back up to around
37.50 to 37.70... Watch and react... MEDIUM RISK
TASR fell barely under 37.50 and
looked weak in the early going staying very narrow and range bound
for over an hour and a half which is unusual considering the momentum
it had later... It moved up from 37.50 to 42.60... strange behavior
but excellent momentum for those who were patient..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock climbed around 70 cents from the open... I would
look for around 20 cents in selling and a potential climb of 50
cents... its a low risk trade and you should be able to keep a
stop if the market pulls a switchoochangoo on us... LOW RISK
JNPR did great again... Moving up
from the open at 23 to 24.18... excellent momentum..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 24, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not too happy with the jobless claims and durable
goods orders. Both are unexpectedly negative which means we may
not see a rate hike next week but its tough to say what the market
will do. So far I am seeing signs of selling so we should be more
cautious today and look for selling before buyers come in... JNPR
climbed the best on my screen so I would expect it to drop the
most if sellers do decide to rake the profits off the table.
We have some negative news with COCO which is causing some more
selling with CECO.. I would watch them for signs of recovery after
the open as they may provide the best potential today.. The nets
were in the lead yesterday and I will be watching them carefully
for signs of bottoming... ASKJ, YHOO, AMZN... QCOM was the weakest
yesterday and may drop the most today... Watch and React Day...
The action was pretty mixed with
some stocks selling down more than others. Some moved down about
50 cents, some did not move down at all.. The leaders were a mix
of security stocks and friends.. MAGS, TASR, PLMO, NVEC, SINA,
QCOM all climbed nicely while the semis and nets remained rather
flat. Our big gappers down recovered very well, APOL, COCO, CECO...
JNPR climbed from the open again about 70 cents which was nice...
GOOD NEWS:
OVTI - Very good earnings report.. The current gap is up from
16.06 to 18.86 .. This stock can drop as low as 18 before gaining
any traction... I think it can go as high as 19 and if it intends
to climb over 19 will hold 18.50 and climb... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
OVTI dropped to 18 and climbed to
18.60 before falling again to 17.40 and bounced back to 18...
so so momo...
ATYT - Good Earnings report - The current gap is up from 16.79
to 18.44 ... I would look for selling down to as low as 17.50
before buyers come in as it appears we have some front runners...
If it climbs from 18 it can make it to 19... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
ATYT dropped to 17.90 and popped
to 18.53... so so momo as well...
COCO - dept. of education puts on reimbusement status - The current
gap is down from 25.06 to 20.75.. I would expect support above
20 at around 20.50 or a bit under... I think the first bottom
is worth persuing... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
The first bottom was at 20.90 and
the stock made it to 23.62... very nice momentum...
TASR is really active and bouncing but I can't find any news...
Lets treat it like a good news stock... currently gapping up from
32.70 to 34.26 .. tough to say where this stock will bounce from...
can be 33.50 to 34... I think its worth persuing... watch and
react.. MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
TASR took off from 34.10 and made
it to 36.10, very nice momentum...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 23, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking flat this morning but we have several gaps
up which indicates the market is leaning to the upside today.
If we are going to be strong like yesterday I expect to see early
buying with QCOM in the lead. The semis did the best yesterday
and should continue the momentum today. I think we have a 70%
chance of a repeat even though we have a yo yo market. If we get
any unexpected selling watch ASKJ, it is gapping up on an upgrade
and should sell down if profit takin rats abound.
After some uncertain action in the
early going the market decided to advance nicely. The nets were
in the lead with the semis not far behind. The early going had
some such as QCOM moving down giving me a negative indication
which caused some earlier exits on good trades such as JNPR. The
QQQ dropped 10 cents from 36.60 to 36.50 then climbed nicely all
day long to a high of 37.20.. QCOM dropped from 67.80 to 66.94
which was quite a bit of selling.. KLAC sold down about 40 cents
and climbed to 47.58... NVLS dropped from 30.13 to 29.87 and climbed
to 30.90.. BRCM moved from 44.98 down to 44.58 and climbed to
45.63.. The nets did very well.. YHOO climbed from the open at
32.52 to 34.19.. AMZN dropped from 48.78 to 48.35 and climbed
to 51.. Mixed early but recovered nicely..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I would expect this stock to take off early.. It is currently
gapping flat at 20.86.. It can climb from 20.60 to 20.80 and move
to 21.50 today.. LOW RISK
JNPR did really really well and
was actually one of if not the strongest stock percentage wise...
It moved down from 20.82 to 20.72 and climbed to 23.37... very
very nice.. Much more than I expected..
NEWS:
IBPI - Stops Iseganan trial for safety reasons.... The current
gap is down from 13.68 to 3.80 .. I will look for pre open support
but this one should rise early if there is any interest at all...
I suspect we will see buying based mostly on short covering...
I would guess it will climb from 3.50 and move up at least 50
cents.... watch and react... LOW RISK
IBPI climbed from 3.70 and made
it to 4.80 later in the day.. excellent momentum...
CECO - SEC begins formal probe.. The current gap is down from
58.58 to 49.90 ... this stock can move down from the open but
I would think the first bottom would bring in interested buyers...
Not really predictable... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
CECO dropped to just under 47 and
climbed to 48.50.. not too bad...
CALM - Added to the Russell 2000.. The stock is currently gapping
up from 14.46 to 15.50... This stock can move as low as 15 and
depending on what the market is doing at the time would be a long
consideration... I would expect 50 cents in potential... LOW RISK
CALM moved from 15.29 at the open
to 14.80 and climbed to 15.68...
PFGC - Warning - The current gap is down from 33.39 to 28... This
stock can sell down from the open.. not predictable.. the first
bottom should be interesting and can climb a dollar... MEDIUM
RISK
PFGC moved down to 27 and climbed
to 27.80... a bit less than I expected..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 22, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning but I am
seeing a few signs of weakness... NVEC, TASR are gapping down
and so is MSFT which are signs that the rats intend to jump again
today. We are locked in a yo yo market that is apt to do anything
at anytime so we will remain in a cautious mode looking for key
indicators before we take action. We are getting a bit of a mix
in the early trading so its not easy to identify the early momentum..
The big story is PLMO with huge earnings upside and it is gapping
up from 21.46 to 29.05 at this time.. It is capable of moving
over 30 quite easily and is probably loaded with short term traders.
Shorting would be worth a try if we can guess the high... Its
gonna be a watch and react proposition for experienced traders...
I am going to expect some early buying but the potential may only
be about 50 to 60 cents so treat early long positions (except
the news stocks)
like scalps..
The early buying was better than
I expected as semis took the lead to the upside... The QQQ opened
around 36.18 dropped to 36.03 and climbed to end the day strongly
at 36.65.. My stronger stocks were: QCOM, KLAC, NVLS, BRCM...
QCOM moved up early from 65.80 to 68.20.. KLAC moved down 30 cents
and climbed from 44.30 to 45.95.. SMH moved up a dollar from 35.70
to 36.85.. Nice momentum on the day and the buying was widely
based with most sectors participating..
NEWS:
QLGC - Merrill Lynch upgrade... the gap is up from 25.48 to 26.45...
If we get decent buying this stock can go as high as 27 if it
holds 26.. I can bottom off 26.20 if its strong... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
QLGC held 26 nicely.. It moved down
from the open around 26.60 to 26.08 and climbed as high as 27.40..
excellent momentum
TBUS - Order for security related products from Olympics... The
current gap is up from 5.96 to 7 .. I am guessing this stock can
climb to 7.50 and can go over... if it is going to do that it
will hold 6.80 and climb... if it goes under 6.80 it will probably
hit 6.50 and bounce to 7... LOW RISK
TBUS dropped from 7.15 to 6.83 and
popped to 7.43 ... good Trade...
IPIX - Washington Post selects IPIX AdMission Platform.. Story
is not really a security type and should not cause any big momentum..
I would look at this trade as a short... It is currently gapping
up from 12 to 12.48... I think it will drop to 12 and can go under
if the market repeats yesterdays action... It can pop to around
12.60 before dropping... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
IPIX popped to 12.65 and dropped
all day long to as low as 12.10 even though the market was strong..
Good Trade..
PSRC - Looks like a sympathy play on the PLMO news... Palmsource
software... The current gap is up from 15.30 to 18 on light volume...
It should move slow but can be jumpy with lower volume... My guess
is that it will pullback to around 17.50 if it intends to run
and would be worth a long position as it can go as high as 20...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
PSRC opened lower than the pre open
18 at 17.75 and fell under 17.50 before making a weak bounce...
It finally bounced off 16.95 and made it to 17.50 where it died..
Not impressive but held 17 all day long allowing a very eas
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 21, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market has been in a sidewinding pattern for the last 15 sessions
just before June... Anything can happen at anytime.. Sellers seem
to be ready to snap up quick profits after any upward moves, which
tells me we mostly have traders in the market. Investors are no
doubt waiting for the FOMC meeting and the turn over of control
to Iraqis.
The futures are positive this morning but we have some indications
that sellers are here and ready to take us down at anytime. MSFT,
CYBX, IPIX are all gapping down but we did see some nice buying
(about one dollar) before the afternoon weakness set in. I think
it will be wise of us to be cautious this morning and look for
selling before we jump on potential lows because its Monday and
a new week. Thursday we have jobless, durable goods, and new home
sales..
Lets watch the gaps carefully and see if they tend to climb up
to the open or drop.. The strongest stocks will rise early and
fast, making it tough to catch them...
The Market continued its unpredictable
yo yo pattern making early highs and then dropping to end at new
lows on the day. The QQQ opened around 36.50 dropped to 36.42
and climbed to 36.63 in the first 45 minutes of trading then made
a slow retreat down to 36.06 and wound up at 36.15 at the end.
The semis only popped about 60 cents before topping and dropping..
The Nets were mixed.. YHOO and ASKJ doing miserably and AMZN popping
about a dollar before topping and dropping..
NEWS:
TASR - Raising revenue guidance up from 100% increase to 150%
increase.. The gap is pretty hefty from 25.77 to 29.30 and seems
to be pulling back from around 29.50... This stock is capable
of moving over 30 but should get some selling first.. If it opens
above 29.50 then the upside potential will be 31.. The gap is
sucking most of the profits so watch it as the selling is not
predictable.. MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
TASR dropped to 29.53 and climbed
to 30.92 for some nice early profits for those who had the ability
to play it.... Shorting was worth a try as it dropped from 30.92
to 28.88 and climbed again to 31.. excellent momo ...
INTC - CEO in an interview says he expects record Q2 profits and
semi recession is over... The gap is not very impressive and it
seems many are not taking the bait... The gap is up from 27.64
to 27.85... If this stock is going to do anything it will rise
from 27.80 and move over 28... Going under 27.70 would be a negative
sign for the market today... LOW RISK
INTC dropped to 27.78 and climbed
to 28.10... 32 cents in potential... slow and safe...
LOW RISK:
AAPL- MSFT is gapping down so I don't trust it today... I am going
to pick AAPL for a nice low risk trade today.. It is gapping up
from 32.91 to 33.15... It should hold 33 in a repeating environment
like Friday and move as high as 33.50... LOW RISK
AAPL weakened before the open and
opened at just above 33... It sold down about 15 cents and made
a very fast climb to 33.50 which was a bit too fast for a low
risk trade...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 18, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking negative this morning and the gaps are generally
down. Buyers are far and few between so any long positions will
generally be considered as scalps (50 cents in potential).. The
good thing is that the farther we drop the more value is created
and buyers are enticed to climb on board. CYBX looks like it will
probably pop a bit at the open and then become a short as the
momentum appears to be heading south..
We are in a yo yo pattern and the market may turn around at any
time.. I will consider shorting the highs again today but look
for pops first before attempting... Faster traders can give it
a shot at or near the open.. The nets held up reasonably well
so I would not short that sector... YHOO and ASKJ did reasonably
well considering the big slide with the semis (SMH is definitely
leading us down)...
Lets pay attention to the gaps as we approach the open today as
it may give us an indication of the action... CECO and RHAT are
gapping down quite a bit and should give us the best potential..
consider entering the first bottom after the open depending on
the pre open support..
The Market took off early and we
saw more buying than we had in the previous days. The QQQ opened
at 36.31 dropped minimally then climbed to 36.83 before topping.
CYBX popped from the open around 37.60 to 38.14 then dropped to
36.65 and ended the day weakly... YHOO climbed a dollar from the
open and ASKJ climbed from 35.40 to 36.42.. SMH climbed a dollar
from 35.62 to 35.52.. CECO was probably had the best potential
moving up from 56.50 (near the pre open support at 56.25) to 63..
Nice trade.. RHAT was not bad either moving from 19.85 to 20.45...
LOW RISK:
MSFT - This stock performed well again yesterday so lets concentrate
on it today.... it is currently gapping flat at 27.77 ... I would
expect this stock to hold 27.50 and climb to 27.75 to 28 depending
on the buying... If the market makes a nice upward turn it can
go as high as 28.50... LOW RISK
MSFT did well again moving steadily
up from 27.70 to 28.50.. Nice trade..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 17, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is listless and dull looking... Yesterday the momentum
was flat so the trading today will be uncertain and difficult.
Its a watch and react day in which the bottoms and tops will be
difficult to time and potential is unknown. I would expect early
shorts to do the best as the PPI numbers are pointing to higher
inflation and most probably rate hikes this month. What this does
to the real estate market will be a worry for the Market to absorb.
The findings with the 9-11 commission is not a happy situation
and they are calling for more, larger attacks on the US in the
upcoming months which is also another worry... With all of this
I would not expect much buying today and our potential probably
lies in shorts.. ASKJ should fall the best as it seems to attract
more sellers than its peers. It is gapping flat and should be
a pre open short.. faster traders only..
CYBX is active again on a buyout rumor... watch and react, action
is unpredictable.. I would wish to short the high if it can be
timed..
The early shorting was a good idea
as buyers were weak and missing in action for the most part. ASKJ
dropped from 36.30 to 35.95 which was not as much as I would have
liked but it did better after the pop to 36.50 falling to 35.70...
CYBX was wild again moving up nicely from 35.80 to 40.10.. The
semis moved down from the open... KLAC moved from 45.75 to 44.20..
NVLS moved down from the open at 30.60 to 29.20... BRCM from the
open at 43.50 to 42.20... YHOO moved down from the open 32.50
to 32 and AMZN moved down from 50.90 to 49.40.... So most of the
potential was with early shorts... QQQ fell from the open at 36.65
to 36.25.. still pretty narrow... tough trading environment..
JNPR - JNPR is currently gapping down from 21 to 20.80... It can
fall as low as 20.50 before climbing but the potential will be
unknown.. scalps only today...
JNPR did OK dropping to 20.50 then
bouncing to 20.80... not the best potential in the world but safe
in an uncertain environment... reminds of the song "bridge
over troubled waters" ..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 16, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is pretty flat this morning.. Housing starts are OK..
We are currently in a yo yo pattern and the market is apt to do
anything today. I am seeing some gaps down with key stocks such
as MSFT so we may get some selling at the open that is bigger
than what we have been seeing. We are fairly warned...
Yesterday we saw minimal selling and so so buying... Probably
about 60 cents on average so going long has the potential of a
scalp which is not very good. Iraq oil exports are shut down for
at least a week but it seems to not be having much of an impact,
YET.... Best Buy beat expectations which is a good sign for consumer
spending...
The big story this morning is CYBX... FDA approval of a anti depression
device for epileptics.. It has moved to over 36 so far and is
now falling.. where this one goes is anyones guess...
It was another difficult day of
trading. The Market remained very narrow all day long. The QQQ
opened around 36.77 dropped to 36.65 and climbed to 36.85.. We
did well on ASKJ as it sold down more than the average and was
called an early short but also bounced a dollar. CYBX made some
nice swings if you could time them and keep tight stops. Trying
to catch the highs for shorting cost some stops and was difficult
to time. Stinky Market..
SNTS - FDA approval for Rapinex which treats heartburn... I don't
think this story is a biggy so its a short over 15.. the current
gap is up from 11.39 to 15... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SNTS fell from 14.98 to 13.70...
Good downside momentum with plenty of potential..
LOW RISK:
MSFT has been very good lately but it is showing a gap down which
may mean it is headin south today... JNPR did very well yesterday
so lets concentrate on it...
JNPR - Its gapping up from 20.77 to 21... I would expect selling
down to around 20.80 in a strong market and move up as high as
21.50... BUT if the market intends to dive on us JNPR will go
under 20.80 in which case we will need to change our expectations
and move into "watch and react" mode... So if JNPR pauses
around 20.80.. lets go long and keep a close stop... its only
a stop loss and worth the effort..!! LOW RISK
JNPR did well but climbed well above
my downside target. It took off from 20.98 and climbed to 21.40...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 15, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy this morning and appears to be ready to start
up again, but it could also be a gapntrap.... We will need to
watch key stocks this morning to give us the real time info. KLAC,
BRCM, YHOO, AMZN.. Biotechs were strong yesterday but I don't
see any signs of a follow through which is not unusual for the
sector... Keep an eye on ONXX and OSIP.. CYBX may move on news
today so keep it on your radar screen.
The futures popped on the CPI numbers which basically gave us
a very tame core inflation number which seems to be a relief for
the market. The early action yesterday was very muted and buyers
were few and far between. We were forced to short early with minimal
climbs.. IPIX is gapping up again and might give us a good upward
advance...
Normally when the market is strong we will see minimal selling
and early buying so that is what we should be looking for... If
we sell down again we will probably see the semis go down more
than 50 cents... RHAT is down on pretty weak news and should rebound
nicely.. I would guess a dollar.. The CFO resigned but analysts
are defending the stock and we have some upgrades...
We have consumer confidence numbers at 9:45 eastern so that may
be a catalyst for sellers or buyers... be on your toes and ready
to react to what we see after the open...
The QQQ took off early from 36.55
and climbed slowly to 36.95 where it topped and sold down the
last hour back to 36.65.... KLAC sold down 20 cents and climbed
70 cents.. BRCM climbed 80 cents with no selling... YHOO climbed
55 cents with no selling and AMZN climbed a dollar with 20 cents
in selling... The potential was not great but the climbs were
steady..
RHAT - CFO resigns.. The current gap is down from 24.30 to 21.92...
So far I don't see any buying so it may dive at the open.. I think
the first bottom is worth persuing so watch it carefully... I
would not expect it to go under 21.50... LOW RISK
RHAT climbed pre open to 23.30 and
popped to 24.. I made no significant bottoms after that initial
move and wound up dropping to 21.90 near the end of the day....
all of the action was pre open...
IPIX - the gap is up but I am seeing alot of action including
selling... The current gap is up from 13.38 to 13.86... If this
stock is going to move up today it will hold 13.50 and climb early...
It can go as high as 15 in a strong market... MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
IPIX quickly fell under 13.50 which
was a negative sign and indeed moved down to 13.10 before bouncing
back to 13.60..
LOW RISK
MSFT - This stock has done well and not sold down with the market
selling... it keeps on ticking so lets watch it for minimal selling
and a potential 50 cent climb.. the current gap is up from 26.90
to 27.05.. I would expect it to climb off 26.80 to 26.90 and make
it as high as 27.50 in a strong market... LOW RISK
MSFT did excellent again, especially
for a low risk trade.. It moved up from 26.97 to 27.60... Good
Trader..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 10, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is slightly happy today after looking at higher import
prices and potential inflationary pressures.. Rate hikes may be
held off though so its kind of a wash momentum wise. Monday we
saw a nice rally, Tuesday a resting day and Wednesday buyers were
few and far between and the market took a dive all day long. This
leads us up to today which is the last trading day of the week
before a long week end. Traders will probably do nothing today
and our biggest potential will be down. I see no reason to buy
today versus yesterday..
I am seeing some early weakness with a few stocks which would
indicate we are heading down from the open but we will need to
WATCH those gaps as they can very often be key to the early action.
If they begin to climb we could get a pop before we drop.. If
they fade we will probably fall from the open...
We should watch IPIX and TASR for signs of buying if the market
intends to climb early, they have the most momentum from yesterday.
If the market is going south they will do so from the open.. We
have another unpredictable day in which we will have to watch
and react...
Today was one of the most difficult
days to watch and react due to the split in momentum with the
semis going up early and the internets down. ASKJ was extremely
unusual in that it dropped 3.40 from the previous closing price
before buyers came in to any degree... tough trading and success
depended more on luck in that you did well if you picked the right
stock and poorly if you picked the wrong stock...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: MACE
Sector: electronic security products
News: DBL to distribute surveilance products to consumers
Chart Snapshot: very slow uptrend from around 3 the first of May
to 6 ...
Expectation: selling security products to consumers is not as
good as selling to the government so I am not sure about the momentum..
I would say that it would hold 6 if it is going to move as high
as 6.50 so off 6 would be worth a stop loss but keep it close..
Currently it is gapping up from 5.64 to 6.30.... LOW RISK
MACE did not hold 6 and the bounce
was pretty meager off 5.93....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 09, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative today and follow through
momentum from our recent rally is very much in doubt today.. I
would look for pops today with minimal selling but we should be
going short... The upward action might only be about 50 to 60
cents and slow so we will need to really focus today...
We should get leadership from the semi sector again and TASR may
repeat its nice upward action along with IPIX which is looking
strong again.. IPIX should do well in the early going once again
but may sell down more than yesterday.. Its gapping up from 10.91
to 11.10 and can go as low as 10.50 to 10.80 before gaining traction..
If the market is going to be strong today IPIX will climb off
10.80...
TASR is gapping down so it might sell down unexpectedly... watch
and react.. If we see gaps begin to fade going into the open add
more negative momentum to the trading...
Once again we saw minimal selling
from the open but there were no pops with a few exceptions. So
we were faced with shorting when the market appeared to be weakening
which was about 15 minutes after the open. IPIX got a boost with
news but was quite predictable and those who played it pre open
and after were rewarded nicely. TASR also did well moving up from
27 to 28.60.. I also suggested we play MAGS as a sympathy play
for IPIX which worked out well. It moved up from 20.30 to 21.10
which was not bad considering the lousy buying in the general
market. Tough day for anyone going long..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I continue to like this stock so lets play it early and
expect at least 50 cents in buying... It is currently gapping
down from 21.55 to 21.41 and can go as low as 21.20.. We will
have to play this by ear and watch the selling action to slow
then jump on board unless the market appears to be diving.. I
am only going to expect around 21.75 but its LOW RISK..
JNPR was stopped at 21.10 as it
appeared to climb from there going up to 21.30 then hitting the
skids hard moving all the way down to 20.38 with minimal bounces
along the way... bummer
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: MEDX
Sector: drug
News: Granted orphan drug status
Chart Snapshot:
Expectation:
Sorry, totally forgot about this one...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: OVTI
Sector: semiconductor
News: May restate results for 2003 and part of 2004
Chart Snapshot: Nice climb near the end of May from 20 up to 25.47
yesterday and ended strong...
Expectation: The weak stocks have been doing very well lately
so I am expecting value traders to hit this one and it can climb
+2 off the first bottom after the open.. Currently we have support
at 18.40 ... It is gapping down from 25.47 to 19... Watch it closely
and consider entering on the first low... MEDIUM RISK
OVTI sold down hard from 19.20 at
the open and did not hold support at 18.40 which was a bad sign...
It went as low as 17.55 and only made it up to 18.20.. Not good
at all... No buyers at all at any price...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 08, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative this morning. I was hoping
to see a continuation of yesterdays upward momentum but with the
gaps down we may see a yo yo change and more selling than a strong
upward trending market should see. We really don't have any reason
to sell as yesterdays climbs were not that big and no big reason
to take profits off the table. Oil is rising again which may be
a reason for some nervousness so we will have to stay on our toes
today.
JNPR did very well yesterday moving up early and is looking strong
again pre open. The gap is flat so lets watch it... Semis were
in the lead yesterday with the nets dragging behind so I would
expect them to lead us.. KLAC, NVLS, BRCM,INTC.. If any of these
stocks sell down more than 50 cents the market will be in trouble
and it will be a negative indication...
IMCL should get some follow through momentum today but the selling
is not predictable... its one to watch along with OSIP and ONXX
which were both down but recovered nicely off the early lows...
Keep an eye on IPIX as it really did nicely yesterday.. It is
gapping up
The selling was minimal with the
exception of NVDA which dropped much more than it usually does.
We had the best upward action with semis and TASR did very well
once again. After about 30 to 40 cents in selling they only climbed
about 60 cents which was pretty mediocre. The nets were pretty
flat and ASKJ had some negative news.. IMCL climbed 1.50, OSIP
and ONXX did not climb until selling down quite a bit... IPIX
did very well again climbing from 10.75 to 11.95.. All in all
it was a tough day of trading but we did well picking the right
stocks to trade...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - The current gap is up from 20.87 to 20.88 which is pretty
good for most stocks are gapping down... This stock can sell down
to 20.50 but should climb over 21 if the market does not throw
us a curve today... LOW RISK
JNPR did well but did not come down
to our target so it was a tough one to jump on.. It opened at
20.95, dropped to 20.85 and climbed to 21.70... excellent potential
with plenty of room for profits...
NVDA - The current gap is down from 22.44 to 22.25 and should
sell down to around 22 but rise and climb to 22.50 and can go
over... LOW RISK
NVDA was my biggest seller from
the open which was a surprise for a low risk trade. It dropped
under 22 to bottom at 21.72 and climbed up to 22.20 and held up
most of the day which was also a surprise.. We shorted this stock
and the most it went down was 21.90... strange behavior..
GOOD PERFORMANCE:
IPIX - Keep an eye on IPIX as it really did nicely yesterday..
It is gapping up a bit and is showing some strength again today...
I would expect around 20 cents in selling and a potential climb
of a dollar... The stronger stocks climb early.... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
IPIX did exactly as expected moving
down from 10.95 to 10.75 (20 cents in selling) and climbing to
11.95.. It also made a very good short moving down from 11.95
to 10.80... We covered at just above 11.. excellent swings...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: VISG
Sector: Software
News: Unveils upgraded versions of 3 identity products used for
security
Chart Snapshot: Currently downtrending from a recent high at just
under 11..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 9.22 to 10.05 .. The story
is not that great but daytraders may hit it because it is a security
stock and IPIX did really well yesterday.. If this stock is going
to do well it will hold 9.80 and climb to 10.50 and can go over
as high as 11... Lets hope daytraders are interested.. LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK
VISG held 9.80 and climbed to 10.45..
Realizing the weakness we shorted it around 10.35 and watched
it drop to 9.75 but I suggested we cover at just above 10 due
to buyers coming in at the time and risk was climbing...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: TTWO
Sector: Computer Software
News: Lowers yr EPS view
Chart Snapshot: slowly climbing off a recent low below 28 from
mid May...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 30.27 to 27.80 ... its
a weak stock and not a dumper so just where she bottoms is unpredictable..
We will have to watch and react... MEDIUM RISK
TTWO did very well for those who
could jump on board early... It opened at just over 27.40 did
not drop much at all and climbed to 29.40... excellent momentum...
Weak stocks are doing well lately...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 4, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is very happy this morning after a sad day yesterday..
The action was NOT very predictable yesterday and I don't expect
it to be today. We have some very good jobs numbers and the revisions
UP were impressive... So do we sell off at the open??? We have
some nice gaps UP today and I would expect selling. The strongest
stocks rise early so its going to be tough catching them especially
since we cannot guess which ones will do well...
Yesterday the strongest stocks were MAGS, IPIX, MACE on good news
provided by some positive comments with IPIX... Today MAGS is
gapping down which is a signal we will sell off at the open..
Will it be a gap n trap day??? I don't really know... Patterns
are mixed and uncertain so if you accept the risk of trading then
you MUST treat trades like scalps until we really see what developes..
The biggest problem with a "watch and react" day is
by the time things develope we miss the potential and hindsight
hits us hard... The semis should lead us UP today with the good
news on the Intell Update (INTC).. So if the market is going to
be strong, KLAC, NVLS, AMAT should rise early with under 50 cents
in selling...
"IF WE BEGIN TO LOSE GAPS RIGHT BEFORE THE OPEN,, BE CAREFUL
GOING LONG"
The QQQ opened around 36.35 and
dropped to 36.22 and then climbed slowly to 36.60 and dropped
to end at 36.20.. Momentum was mixed again with some stocks doing
OK and others not. MAGS bounced lost its momentum and only bounced
60 cents at best.. IPIX managed a dollar bounce in the early going
then died all day.. MACE bounced 45 cents.. The internets did
the best but were still a bit mixed.. SINA climbed a dollar from
the open... climbed 1.10.. AMZN climbed 1.40.. YHOO only made
it up 80 cents.... ASKJ dropped 1.20 and climbed the same.. The
semis were pretty flat all day long, not much buying, not much
selling....
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: DYAX
Sector: Drugs
News: FDA permission to resume trials
Chart Snapshot: Drop recently on questionable trials fro 14 down
to 9..
Expectation: This stock has been recovering off 9 since the drop...
It is currently gapping up from 10.95 to 13.31... I think the
upside potential is around 13.50 so it would be an early short
around 13.50 and should drop as low as 12.50.. where I would consider
going long as it can move right back up to 13.50...LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
DYAX dropped twice.. The first drop
was from 13.50 to 12.85 then spiked on news up to 13.75 where
it became another good short moving down to 12.60... Good Short
if you could time it...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: INTC
Sector: semi
News: good mid quarter update.. strong numbers
Chart Snapshot: Steady climb from the first of May at just under
26 up to 29... currently pulling back..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 27.41 to 28.25... this
should be an easy trade with the high potential at 28.50 "IF"
the market is not going to fool us today... if this stock drops
under 28 the market will be in trouble for the bulls... 80% chance
it will hold 28 and should be a very easy trade to 28.50... LOW
RISK
INTC did fairly well in spite of
the lousy semi buying.. It dropped to 28.03 and climbed up to
28.50 right on cue... EXCELLENT low risk, easy trade...!!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 3, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking unhappy this morning and may be forming
a downtrend.. The early action on gap down days would be expected
buying but we may see some selling first... Lets watch and react
and keep our eyes on ASKJ and AMZN as those two were strong yesterday
and should gather buyers if any are lurking around.. The action
may be very slow to form so lets be patient..
NVDA also did very well and is LOW RISK so lets stay focused..
I will be looking for pops and will be going short today if the
action is readable...
We did not have many targets due
to the lack of predictability. Trading was tough and most of the
buying was contained with the security stocks, MAGS, IPIX and
MACE.. I tried shorting them but the tops were unpredictable.......
The QQQ remained in a very tight range and dropped to new day
the last hour... Most of the momentum was scalp potential only...
sad day for longs unless you picked the security stocks and they
had news to help out.. (IPIX)
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: CMVT
Sector: Telecomm
News: 1Q EPS tops views
Chart Snapshot: slow uptrend from 16 the beginning of May..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 17.42 to 18.10 .. If this
stock is going to do well it will bottom at 17.80 and climb..
Its uncertain how well it will do in this changing market... MEDIUM
RISK
CMVT did very well holding 18.10..
it never dropped near my 17.80 target so I expect most traders
missed the trade.. It moved up from 18.10 to 19.10..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: BMRN
Sector: Drug Manuf.
News: Pos results for Phase 3
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low around 5.50..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 6.53 to 7.77... I would
look for a short on this one around 7.80 to 8 and expect it to
drop under 7.50.. MEDIUM RISK
BMRN was a very good short dropping
from 7.75 to 6.50... I called a long at 7 which was high percentage
but it refused to bounce which is great for shorters but bad for
scalpers going long....
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 2, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The futures are UP and we are looking happy this morning.. Oil
concerns are abating and we should climb today... I see no reason
not to.. We also have a pattern of early buying so I am not going
to anticipate much selling at the open. Our internet stocks did
the best yesterday and should lead us up again today... Semis
were dragging their feet and should do better today. Everything
is looking rosey but I will be looking for signs of unexpected
weakness which is basically selling over 50 cents..
MAGS did very well yesterday and I am going to watch it for good
potential off the early bottom.. AMZN, ASKJ and YHOO should also
do well.. If we do get any unexpected selling watch the gaps...
If they begin to disappear we may dive to depths unknown...
The market threw us a curve but
luckily enough we saw the signs prior to the open as some key
stocks lost their gaps and started going negative. We changed
fast and shorted NVLS at the open.. After the selling we caught
the bottoms and the market did one of its very very slow recoveries
and then sold down near the end.. We also caught the long top
and shorted again so we actually did quite well in spite of the
changing market.. The QQQ opened at 36.57 dropped to 36.18 in
2 1/2 hours and then recovered up to 36.64 and dropped the last
hour to end at 36.40... MAGS made an early 60 cent climb then
died the rest of the day no longer participating with the buying...
AMZN dropped from 50.30 to 49.80 then climbed up to 51.20.. YHOO
copied MAGS and dropped all day long from 32.80 down to 31.50...
ASKJ dropped from 43.30 to 41.70 then climbed back to 43.80..
excellent trade... We shorted the last high at 43.80 and watched
it drop back to 42.10...
LOW RISK:
NVDA - We have an upgrade today by UBS to BUY so news is causing
a large gap up... It is currently trading up from 23.43 to 24.25
but I would expect this stock to bottom around 24 and may dip
under a bit but should not go under 23.80... The upside potential
should be around 24.75 if the day is as good as it appears at
this time.. LOW RISK
NVDA dropped pre open and followed
the market down... it hit 23.30 and bounced 40 cents and ended
weakly back to 23.28..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: ALTH
Sector: Drug manufacture
News: approvable letter from FDA for brain metastases drug...
from breast cancer
Chart Snapshot: flat around 2 for a month... dropped from 5.50
down to 2.50 in April
Expectation: So far the early highs were around 4.25.. dropping
to 3.65 now.. so the current gap is up from 1.95 to 3.65.. This
stock can run so I would expect that if it can hold 3.50 it can
go as high as 4.50... If it drops under 3.50 it would still be
worth persuing the first bottom... If it does not climb early
like SSPI.. dump it... LOW RISK
ALTH weakened pre open.. it did
not hold 3.50 but we gave it a shot at 2.83...... It only climbed
to 3.12 so it was a disappointment..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: DFIB
Sector: Medical appliances
News: Chindex dist pact in China
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low around 2 after a long
downtrend from 5.50 last January...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 2.30 to 2.67 on light
to moderate volume... I think this stock would be worth a try
off 2.50 as it can move up as high as 3.. LOW RISK
DFIB was another disappointment
climbing only a dime...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For June 1, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Futures are looking sour this morning due to the terrorist
attacks in Saudi Arabia and a potential disruption in oil supply.
We are also coming out of a holiday so the action this morning
will not be very predictable. Our pattern is early buying after
a bit of selling so I will be watching for a repeat..
Security stocks are in the lead this morning and the bad news
is having a positive effect on them.. I think its worth persuing
the first bottoms after a bit of selling on MAGS, IPIX and MACE..
IPIX and MACE will be safer but not have the same point potential
as MAGS..
Semis should lead the general market due to the good news with
NVLS last week.. NVLS should be in the lead and the gaps down
should produce early buying once the sellers clear out...
The market made a slow recovery
ending fairly well.. The QQQ climbed from the open from 36.25
to 36.53 dropped to 36.12 and recovered near the end of the day
back up to 36.53 ending with positive momentum... MAGS did very
well but IPIX and MACE were flat.. The internets took the early
lead with the semis somewhat flat til near the end of the day..
NVLS climbed from 32.75 after 25 cents in selling up to 33.35..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - This stock performed very well last Friday with minimal
selling... the current gap is down from 23.45 to 23.38... I would
expect this stock to rise somewhere above 23... I think its worth
a try and can climb to 23.75 if the buyers are here today....LOW
RISK
NVDA did well climbing from 23.03
up to 23.65.. excellent momentum for a fairly flat day for most
techs... good tradin stock..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: SSPI
Sector: Networking and communication devices
News: Lockheed Martin selects SSPI
Chart Snapshot: SSPI had a big jump on the last news regarding
a contract for a ground mobile electronic warfare system from
3.50 to 6.50 in one day... Has come back down to flat around2
for the last month..
Expectation: This stock can run again so its worth persuing...
The gap is pretty big at this time and is no doubt sucking some
potential.. The current gap is up from 2.23 to 3.86... I would
say that is this stock moves UP off 3.50 that it can run up to
5.. If it moves under 3.50 look for the potential to be only around
4... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SSPI slowly dropped all day long
never really giving us opportunity due to the slow and narrow
market.. Normally the momentum occurs fairly early and if they
don't do it early, won't do it later... No daytraders, shucks..
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: POZN
Sector: Drug Manuf...
News: Non approvable letter for a migrain drug..
Chart Snapshot: downtrend from 18 to 9...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 9.85 to 5.99... so far
I don't see much support and in light of the selling we saw with
BCSI on Friday this stock is going to be unpredictable... Watch
and React... BCSI made Two bottoms before bouncing a dollar...
I would look for action around 5.. a nice solid whole number...
MEDIUM RISK
POZN climbed early off 5.75 up to
6.50 then dropped to 5.60 and climbed near the end of the day
to 6.30.. Two Bottoms..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 28, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly on the negative side.. We are getting
a semi boost from NVLS and AMAT and KLAC are gapping up.. I would
expect the early action to be with the semi sector today and with
bad news stock BCSI which missed expectations and lowering guidance..
Our pattern is early buying with minimal selling and I don't see
a reason to change that..
We should see the most selling with MAGS as it appears to be weak
again today... It should make a nice climb worth jumping on after
a bit of selling to around 20 would be my guess but it can bounce
over 21 and would be a good short off the high, I would expect
it to end weak again today..
The QQQ dropped 20 cents and climbed
30 cents ending slightly positive.. Narrow trading in a pre holiday
market.. Not much to do or say.. NVLS dropped from 32.82 to 32.25
and climbed to 33.30... AMAT dropped from 19.72 to 19.45 and climbed
to 19.95... KLAC dropped from 47.82 to 47.48 and climbed to 48.33..
MAGS climbed off 20 moved over 21 to 22.60 and dropped back down
to 21.. Nice call on the short for Gimmie...
LOW RISK:
NVDA - The current gap is up from 22.57 to 22.64.. I would expect
this stock to hold 22.40 as a bottom and climb as high as 23...
LOW RISK
NVDA did very well holding the gap
and climbing off 22.68 to 23.55... very good momentum for a low
risk narrow trading day...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NVLS
Sector: semiconductor
News: Raises 2Q guidance
Chart Snapshot: participating with the market and climbing off
the recent low ..
Expectation: the current gap is up from 31.38 to 32.80... Tough
to say how many front runners we have but yesterday TECD did great
going much higher than I expected.. I would guess that if NVLS
climbs off 32.50 it can move up as high as 34.. We are in a holiday
market so the momo is tough to guess... If it goes under 32.50
I would not play it til 32.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
NVLS dropped from 32.82 to 32.25
and climbed to 33.30... excellent momentum
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: DITC
Sector: Telecomm
News: 4Q profit as Revenues double
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low around 13..
Expectation: The stock is gapping up from 15.92 to 17.50... This
stock should hold 17 and climb to 18 and can go over... It could
bottom at 17.20, tough to say how many front runners we might
have... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
DITC climbed from 17.70 after a
higher gap at 17.90, up to 20.60.. excellent momentum...
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: BCSI
Sector: Internet Software
News: Missed earnings by 4 cents and warned .20 to .21 versus
.24 expected.. analyst defending the stock this morning
Chart Snapshot: This stock has been flat most of May after a drop
from 62 in April..
Expectation: too bad this is a holiday Friday because many dumpers
don't do too well around holidays... The current gap is down from
39.25 to 30.90.. So far the support appears to be around mid 30...
I think this stock is worth persuing the first bottom and can
climb +2 in a normal market.. might be a bit less in a holiday
one... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
BCSI made two bottoms early... One
at 30 and climbed 60 cents and another one at 28.80 and moved
up to 29.90... then died the rest of the day... Did not do very
well probably more due to the holiday than a changing pattern...
We shall see...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 27, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is reasonably happy this morning as our economic numbers
came in pretty much in line. No surprises.. We are heading into
a holiday week end and traders will be exiting today no doubt
so the action may be slow and narrow much like yesterday. The
QQQ remained in a 35 cent trading range.
We have a pattern of early buying with minimal selling and I am
going to expect a repeat today. I am seeing continued leadership
with the security stocks this morning: MAGS, IPIX, MACE, TASR..
I will be watching this group very carefully as we get close to
the open because if there is any unexpected selling I would expect
the gaps to drop... I would think that MAGS would be running out
of steam today due to the 3 day climb from 13 to 21... its a short
candidate off the high...
Once again we saw early buying with
minimal selling... The QQQ Moved from 36.22 up to 36.50 before
topping and dropping slowly to 36.07 and back near the end of
the day to 36.41.. We had some weak stocks that were worth shorting
and some strong ones that produced stops for shorters.. AMZN was
very strong,, SINA and ASKJ weak... We caught the MAGS high and
if you were fortunate to be able to find shares did very well
as it dropped from 22.70 down to 19.80 where it was called a long
and it climbed back to 21.50... Security stocks lost their steam..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - I am going to watch NVDA for early buying.. The volume
is pretty low so I would expect this stock to be slow going..
it is gapping flat at 22.50.. I would expect this stock to climb
off 22.30 and make it to 22.70..
NVDA climbed pre open and did as
expected moving up early with minimal selling... It opened at
22.88 dropped to 22.75 and climbed to 23.20..
JNPR - JNPR sold down more than expected yesterday and may be
losing its momentum... I would watch this stock for a low risk
short around 21.35 and expect it to drop to 21... It may go under
if the market sells down...
JNPR dropped from 21.35 to 21.10
then climbed back to 21.50 and dropped again to 20.50 making an
excellent short... I called a short at 21.35 so it was a tough
one to read...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: TECD
Sector: computer wholesale
News: 1Q net up 23% sales growth...
Chart Snapshot: Climbing up off a recent low at 32.50..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 35.55 to 37.85... Our
good news stocks have been selling down and this stock may have
some front runners... I think that if the first drop goes under
37.50 it will go as low as 37... I think the upside potential
may only be 38 so consider that the upside target... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
I missed the upward potential on
this one.. It was much stronger than our previous good news gainer..
It climbed from a low at 37.70 so holding 37.50 was a key to the
strength but with my target set only at 38, I missed the trade..
It climbed to 39.90...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: MANT
Sector: Business Software
News: Cuts views for 2Q and Y04 on contract change...
Chart Snapshot: Nice 3 day rally from 24.50 to 27..
Expectation: The volume is pretty low on this stock so it may
be jumpy... the current gap is down from 27.05 to 20.69.. Lets
look for support pre open, if we don't see any expect a drop to
as low as 20... MEDIUM RISK
MANT climbed from the open about
30 cents then made another low and climbed a dollar... 3 hours
after the open it made multiple bottoms and ended weak... It seems
we are losing dumper momentum which is often the case with holiday
trading..
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 26, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative and gaps are fairly flat.
The exceptions are the security stocks, MAGS, IPIX, TASR, MACE,
all gapping up and appear to be drawing in buyers.. We should
look for some action with these stocks after a bit of selling
from the open.. Our current patterns is minimal selling from 10
cents to 40 cents and early climbs... The nets took off early
and later on the semis followed so I will be looking for signs
of a repeat today.
The durable goods orders came in weaker than expected but the
revision on the last numbers came in much stronger.. Its kind
of a wash with a lean a bit on the negative side so we should
be watching key stocks for more selling than expected such as
the nets... AMZN, YHOO, ASKJ,SINA.. These stocks will probably
sell down first and fastest if the market hands us a curve...
Security stocks had the most momentum
and did well with little selling at the open and very nice climbs.
MACE was the best moving up one dollar which is quite a bit for
a 5 dollar stock.. It climbed off 5.10 and made it to 6.30.. MAGS
climbed from 18 to 21.80... AMZN and SINA did the best in the
net sector while YHOO and ASKJ remained rather flat all day...
The semis did OK climbing about a dollar from the eventual lows
but the early bounces were weak...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock is gapping down from 21.62 to 21.57 and has
been climbing early with very little selling.. I would expect
to see this stock climb from 21.40 to as high as 22... LOW RISK
JNPR dropped under 21.40 which was
more than I expected moving to 21.20 and climbing to 21.70.. Most
of our other trades did not drop as much so this was a disappointment
for selling predictability...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: SLXP
Sector: Drug
News: FDA approval - first nonsystemic gastrointestinal selective
antibiotic..
Chart Snapshot: Long uptrend but currently getting profit taking
pressure from 35 down to 31 and ended weak yesterday..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 31.45 to 33.25 on mediocre
volume... I would look for a drop to 32.80 and a climb to 34 ..
If this stock goes under 32.80 we should short it on a pop...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SLXP sold down pre open and sold
down under 32.80 which then became a short over 33.. The stock
popped to 33.25 and headed south going as low as 30.. Good Short
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 25, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not looking none too happy today and we have gaps
down.. We are trading a momentumless market and seeing some stocks
do OK and others not so good. Normally the gaps down will bring
in buyers early but I don't feel the gaps are such value as to
tempt buyers to move in. On top of the uncertainty we have consumer
confidence this morning which can push the staggering market either
way, up or down.
Lets keep our powder dry today and watch the nets, YHOO, ASKJ,AMZN,
SINA, NTES for action and leadership.. I will also watch MAGS
and RIMM for continuing momentum.. Watch and React Day...
The nets led us in the early going
and later the semis took over... Some stocks sold down more than
others before the buyers came in... ASKJ no selling... YHOO no
selling,,, SINA no selling,,, BRCM no selling... AMZN sold down
40 cents,,,, QCOM 40 cents...KLAC 65 cents.,,, SNDK 50 cents....
NVDA 40 cents,,,JNPR 30 cents,,,, NVLS 50 cents.... Basically
it was a fairly minimal day of selling consumer confidence coming
in a bit above expectations and stocks climbed all day long....
As long as consumers are happy the market will respond positively.
Rate hikes, inflation concerns and oil is not hurting us so far..
BAD NEWS:
DYAX - This stock is currently down about 50% and should bounce
early... so far I don't see support so lets watch it after the
open and try our best to find the bottom... MICU took a dive yesterday
before finding value and buyers... so DYAX may do the same thing..
Watch and React
DYAX strengthened pre open based
on a good conference call in which the company said it would have
everything straightened out in a few weeks... DYAX took off from
9.20 and climbed to 11.. Good Momentum...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 24, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking positive this morning on higher oil production
news. We have a pattern of selling at the open then active buying
so this is what we will be looking for. Unfortunately we have
some stocks that will not do very well and others that will do
just fine.. Last Friday our stronger bouncers were our good news
stocks.. We also saw the best action with SNPS, RIMM, ONXX, BRCM
and QCOM so I will be looking for action from this group once
the selling slows down. JNPR ended the day with decent action
so I will play it again today for our low risk trade..
The Market changed on us and we
saw very little selling as buyers came in at the open. Unless
you played the stocks from the open you missed the early action.
The only thing left was the shorts. We caught ASKJ off the high..
It opened at 36.70 dropped to 36.50 and climbed to 37.90 where
we went short and it dropped to 36.90.. AMZN climbed a dollar
and YHOO did the same.. The semis stayed relatively flat and narrow
all day.. The market ended such that we stayed in cash.. No real
certain momentum..
JNPR - The current gap is up from 20.45 to 20.68 ..... We should
see a first bounce off 20.50 to 20.55 and a climb to 21... LOW
RISK
JNPR moved up from the open at 20.72
to 21.12 ... It bounced early and gave us no time to enter with
little potential due to the fast climb from the open...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: BRCM
Sector: Semiconductor
News: New Technology that doubles the performance of fibre channel..
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent bottom around 36..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 40.75 to 41.50.. This
gap is not up much so I suspect the news is not being met with
much enthusiasm... Lets look for selling down to around 41 or
a bit above and a climb over 42 if the market does well... If
this stock drops under 41 it will be a very negative sign for
the market today... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
BRCM was disappointing.. It sold
down to 41 and tryied to bounce going to 41.33 but fell down to
40.30 before bouncing later in the day up to 41.. Not much momentum...
disappointing trade... :>(
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: AMCC
Sector: Semiconductor
News: to enable smaller capacity prov. platforms..
Chart Snapshot: bottom dweller around 4.50 all of May... Long
downtrend from 8.50 last January down to 4.50 at the end of April...
Expectation: It may take more news than this to get this stock
off its bottom.. currently it is gapping up from 4.60 to 5.00..
I would give it a try off 4.80 if it pauses and begins to climb
there but only expect it to go to 5.10 to 5.20 at the most...
If it drops under 4.80 it will probably head back to 4.50 with
a minimal bounce.. LOW RISK
This stock bounced at 4.94 so it
did not fall enough to gain my interest. It made it from 4.94
up to 5.18...
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: MICU
Sector: Drug Manuf.
News: Approvable letter asks for more information
Chart Snapshot: Flat since January around 21 to 22...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 21.86 to 14.80.... So
far I don't see any support but will be watching it... if we don't
see much support it can drop from the open... We may have a big
seller so we will have to watch a level 2 screen to see when they
leave... I would expect support above 14.. probably 14.50... MEDIUM
TO HIGH RISK
MICU received some pre open support
around 14.20 and opened at 14.60 but fell fast down to 12 where
it bounced to 13.50... Good momentum if you could follow the trade...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 21, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
Its Friday, options expiration day and the market is looking positive
this morning. Our pattern has been selling down (somewhat unpredictably)
but basically around 50 to 60 cents and buying, then narrow trading..
If you look at an intraday chart of YHOO and AMZN from yesterday
it tells the story fairly well... YHOO bounced OK... and AMZN
did not... so your success will depend on what stock you pick..
I am guess that once the smoke clears, KLAC, QCOM and BRCM will
do well if any buyers show up...
We saw another day of mixed trading
and a very narrow market. The QQQ opened around 35 traded down
to 34.78 and climbed to 35.15 and very slowly dropped back to
34.75 and in the last hour made it back to 35.. Some stocks did
fairly well when the buyers showed up and some did not.. Stronger
stocks were: SNPS, RIMM, ONXX, BRCM, QCOM.. Weaker were: KLAC,
SNDK, NVDA, JNPR, NVLS, AMZN, ASKJ.. Tough day of trading...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - We will need to watch this stock and expect as much as
50 cents in selling... if it climbs after only 20 cents in selling
the market may do better than expected.. It is currently gapping
up from 20.20 to 20.55.. Lets look for a bottom around 20.. keep
a stop at 19.80 and expect it to climb over 20.50.. LOW RISK
JNPR made a very slow drop to 20.24
and climbed to 20.52.. It dropped with the market most of the
day but made a comeback late in the day off 20.03 to climb to
20.44..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: SRNA
Sector: Software
News: EPS up 41% - license revs up 46%
Chart Snapshot: Long downtrend from January from 23 down to 16.60...
Expectation: Currently gapping up from 16.78 to 18.75.. I would
expect some selling down to around 18 due to losers who held during
the long downtrend wanting some of their money back and exiting...
I think it would be worth a long position off 18... If it climbs
from 18.50 it can go over 19 ,,, if not it will probably only
climb from 18 to 18.75... LOW RISK
SRNA climbed off 18.50 and moved
much better than the market average, going to 20.60 where it ended
the day... Plenty of upside potential..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: MRVL
Sector: Semiconductor
News: Record 1Q earnings
Chart Snapshot: Sidewinding all of may around 39...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 39.76 to 42.. This stock
can bottom around 41 and climb back up to 42 and can go over...
selling action is not predictable... MEDIUM RISK
MRVL did not sell down at all but
moved up from 41.90 to 44.10 where it ended the day... Very good
momentum for the good news stocks..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 20, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
We have a flat looking market today with the ending action being
selling yesterday. This will put our early action in doubt and
will need to watch key stocks for a tip off this morning. Yesterday
timing the bottoms and tops were tough as some stocks continue
to do well and others do not. I did see more uniformity with the
trading yesterday so hopefully we will begin to stabilize and
perform more predictably..
I will be watching the nets closely today as they sold off the
most yesterday.. YHOO, AMZN, ASKJ.. The made some nice bottoms
so once the sellers create value they should be worth persuing..
We will also wish to try our best to short the highs today..
The QQQ opened around 34.78 dropped
to 34.74 and climbed to 35.02 then dropped to 34.57.... Very narrow
action and difficult to pick up the bottoms and tops.. We ended
where we started.. Once again some stocks did OK.. and others
did not.. YHOO dropped from the open price of 28.12 down to 27.50
and climbed to 28.30... ASKJ dropped from 37.72 to 36.80 and climbed
to 37.72 again... This was fairly typical with the stocks that
bounced well.. AMZN never bounced much at all slowly drifting
down from 41.90 down to 40.80.. Tough Trading..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock should perform with the market... Its not really
predictable but will be worth focusing on... the current gap is
up from 20.85 to 21.06.. I would expect this stock to climb off
20.90 to 21 if the market intends to do well in the early going...
and should at least move to 21.50 with reasonable buying... LOW
RISK
JNPR appeared to bottom at 20.80
but stopped anyone who gave it a try and dropped to 20.65 before
bouncing to 21.10... It was a good example of the iffy trading..
bottoms were OK but tough to identify..
BAD NEWS:
BBOX - Networking stock with disappointing results yesterday...
The volume is pretty low so it may be a bit on the jumpy side...
but looking at the chart it has longer term support around 40...
should be worth watching and it can climb +2 off the low... MEDIUM
RISK
BBOX got some pre open support and
opened at 41.80 but dropped near our support target at 40.20 and
popped to 42.20 near the end of the day so it required some patience
to get all of the potential...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: PHRM
Sector: drug
News: FDA approval for a treatment for a rare bone disease
Chart Snapshot: recent climb from 21 to 28 the beginning of May..
Expectation: This stock is gapping up from 26.83 to 42... this
should be a very good short once the momentum dies... the word
rare generally means there are few patients so their earnings
will not have a big impact over time BUT the drug may expand into
treatments for other medical problems.. It can pop and has a low
float so its HIGH RISK...
PHRM did pop which was indicated
by the strength shown right before the open... It opened at 43
and popped to 44.70 and provided a very nice short for those who
could time it.. It went as low as 37.80..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 19, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy again this morning after a narrow day of trading
and limited momentum. Some stocks do well and others not so well...
We will need to watch the strong stocks from yesterday, RIMM,
KLAC, QCOM, BRCM, SNDK, YHOO, NVDA and JNPR... I am going to look
for a repeat of yesterdays action in that we should not see much
selling at the open and reasonable buying with specific stocks.
We should not see more than 50 cents in selling on the strong
stocks and I would expect them to climb early. Buying may be slow
and specific again and some stocks may drag behind.
The Market started out well, climbing
early... The most early selling I saw on my screen was YHOO at
61 cents which was a caution indication but most other stocks
sold down well within a "strong market" type which lulled
me into believing we would climb nicely all day long and end well.
Surprise, surprise we sold down near the end of the day!!! The
QQQ opened at 35.15 dropped to 35.08 then climbed nicely to 35.50
and held up for nearly 5 hours then WHAM... down we went to 34.70..
Luckily for us the early action was good and selling minimal for
the strong stocks.. Strange day of trading..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - This stock has started to perform reasonably well for a
low risk stock.. The current gap is up from 21.51 to 21.77.. We
should look for a climb around 21.50 to 21.60 and a move to 22
and possibly a bit over.. LOW RISK
NVDA climbed early but then died..
It moved up from 21.95 to 22.30 then dropped all day long going
as low as 21.35 and ended at 21.45...
JNPR - The current gap is up from 20.54 to 20.95.. I would expect
to see a bottom arouond 20.80 and a climb to 21.40... LOW RISK
JNPR performed well on very little
selling at the open moving up from 21 to 21.73 before drifting
down...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: SKYE
Sector: Drug delivery
News: FDA approval of DepoDur, to control after surgery pain
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low from around 9 after
a drop in April from 13.50
Expectation: The current gap is up from 9.75 to 12.04.. This would
be a short anywhere around 12... I am expecting this stock to
fall to 11 and can go under... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SKYE was a good short called around
12.60 and it fell the expected 1 dollar... I felt it would still
make it to 11 and was worth holding but only made it as low as
11.60...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: SYNO
Sector: Health Services - medical appliances
News: slashes 2004 view on 2Q net decline
Chart Snapshot: Bottom dweller around 14 since Feb... no interest
by anyone
Expectation: The current gap is down from 14.65 to 10.30... I
will watch for pre open support and if I don't see any will look
for a drop at the open but I will consider the first bottom which
should be around 10... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
SYNO did well off 10 bucks as expected
moving up to 11... Good Trade..
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 18, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy this morning and may well be on its way to
recovery. We have some nice gaps up and due to the market changes
we have seen lately the action will not be very predictable. All
we can do is look for indications of what is to be. I would expect
some selling at the open but just how much is uncertain. I will
be looking for no more than 50 cents in selling on key stocks
such as, KLAC, NVLS, QLGC.. and for low risk, JNPR, NVDA.. "IF"
the market is going to recover today... I would estimate the probability
at about 70%...
The market has been mixed lately, in that some stocks respond
well off the bottoms and some do not... so picking the trade is
somewhat of a gamble.. The strong stocks usually take off early
so focus , focus , focus...
We saw another mixed day where some
stocks did well and others did not. The difference between AMZN
and YHOO was typical of the weak stocks versus the strong ones.
AMZN barely bounced 30 cents all day long while YHOO climbed from
27.30 to 28 and held the highs very well... KLAC did not sell
down over 20 cents and climbed a dollar.. NVLS and QLGC barely
bounced 30 cents.. RIMM did very well climbing from 93.75 to 100..
The QQQ stayed in a 30 cent range from 34.60 to 34.90 but ended
reasonably well to give us an indication of upward momentum and
we entered a few long positions for the gap...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: TASR
Sector: security
News: 4 significant orders
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low around 26..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 29.23 to 30.40... I would
expect some selling down to around 30 but it should take off and
move over 31 if indeed the market recovers and does not throw
us a curve... MEDIUM RISK
TASR dropped from 30.70 to 30.35
and climbed to 31.30... It lost momentum the rest of the day and
ended at 29.80..
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: MLNM
Sector: Drug Manuf.
News: significantly extends survival in Phase 3 trials for Myeloma...
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent low at 13 after a steep
drop near the end of April from 19..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 13.56 to 15.24.. Since
this stock is coming off a recent low it can get selling down
as much as 14.50... If it is going over 16 it should move up off
15... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MLNM climbed from 14.98 to 15.48
then dropped to 14.40 with no bounces over 30 cents...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: AMKR
Sector: Semiconductor
News: IBM pact worth 1.5 Billion through 2010...
Chart Snapshot: Climbing slowly off 8 around the first of May..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 9.05 to 9.95 ... I would
expect this stock to climb off 9.80 in a recovering market to
as high as 10.50...LOW RISK
AMKR dropped below 9.80 and never
provided any upward opportunity... Nobody was interested.. It
finally dropped to 9.27... Good story but buyers were real picky...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 14, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is trying to absorb the confusing CPI numbers. We are
not looking positive but we have capitalization utilization due
before the open and Michigan consumer due 1/2 hour after the open.
Yesterday we saw a mix of trading with some stocks doing quite
well and others not so well. TASR was one of the best swingers
as was SNDK... DELL reported in line numbers and this will not
help us today.. BEAS was also disappointing..
I will be watching key stocks to get a feel for the market today
but basically I am not feeling very comfortable with the action.
We may go up we may go down.. Yesterday was a flat day which in
my mind means it can do anything today.. We will have to watch
and react...
QQQ opened at 35.20 climbed minimally
to 35.30 then took a dive down to 34.65 in the first 1/2 hour
where it found support and began a long 4 hour climb back to 35.25
then fell to end the day at 34.80... The trading was mixed as
some stocks did fairly well off the bottoms and some did not.
KLAC bounced fairly well but QLGC and NVLS did not. AMZN and YHOO
did well bouncing almost a dollar after the initial selling..
TASR bounced 1.40 but SNDK did nothing.. a real mix... The market
ended rather flat and momentumless..
BAD NEWS:
DELL - in line earnings.. the current gap is down from 35.80 to
34.55... I will be looking for support which can occur around
34... It will probably be worth persuing the first bottom but
treat it like a scalp...LOW RISK
DELL opened at 34.65 and dropped
to 34.45 and made it as high as 34.90... Not too good, not too
bad..
ADIC - 2Q loss on lower margins... The current gap is down from
10.07 to 7.44.. It appears 7 is support so far... I think the
first bottom will be worth jumpin on... I would guess this stock
will rise about 50 cents off the early low... LOW RISK
ADIC found support above 7 pre open
and climbed.. It opened at 7.50 and climbed all day long to 8.10
where it ended the day.... Good trade for a low risk stock..
BEAS - disappointing earnings, downgraded... The current gap is
down from 10.78 to 9... I would look for a bottom around 8.50
and a potential 50 cent climb... LOW RISK
BEAS fell from 9.04 and dropped
to 8.30 where it finally bounced to 8.68... Not very good...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 12, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not looking very happy as our trade deficit is wider
than expected. Rate Hikes, inflation, deficits are a weight on
the market and we may head south today. The market is trying its
best to recover off the recent lows but this could take us down
much like a drunk struggling off the sidewalk and gets a push
down again...
The nets did very well yesterday so lets watch them move along
with the semis... I am going to watch for selling before the buyers
come in and when they come in is NOT very predictable... Yesterday
we saw the semis sell down less than 50 cents and climb... Today
we may see them drop over 50 cents... Lets keep our powder dry
and watch the action for opportunity today..
JNPR ended at the low of yesterdays trading range which is not
good for upward momo... so I am not trading it today unless I
see a very nice bottom (which means lotsa sellin).. If the market
decides to recover watch CSCO it should do well off the first
bottom... If we dive big, watch ASKJ it should hit the skids first...
The Market hit the skids and kept
going. Watching for buying was a real exercise in patience. I
was watching RIMM all day long and trying to catch the bottoms
was really tough. My target for real buying was when RIMM hit
91 and it was a good indication. The QQQ dropped from 35.15 at
the open and kept making little bounces most of the day... We
saw a final wave of selling 4 1/2 hours into the Market action
when the news hit regarding the bombing of the Italian embassy
in Iraq which brought in the buyers... The QQQ made a final dip
from 34.50 to 34.25 and started to climb and amazingly ended the
day at 35.20.. Huge recovery.. The recovery was very broad based
so intraday breakouts were many.. Interestingly also were the
security stocks, MAGS and TASR climbed well before the general
market remaining very strong all day long.. Strange day of trading...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: MAXM
Sector: drug
News: Phase 3 Leukemia drug meets primary endpoint
Chart Snapshot: flat around 8 since May 1st...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 8.00 to 10.21... I would
consider this a short so lets watch the early high for opportunity...
I will not go long unless I see the market moving up nicely...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MAXM was an excellent short off
the early high at 10.45 dropping to 8.60 and it did not participate
with the buying later in the day... plenty of downside potential...
good trade!!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 11, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking reasonably happy today and some of our favorites
are gapping up nicely. We have a question about the follow through
momentum this morning since yesterday was so negative. One of
two things is likely to happen: 1. We may sell down minimally
and the market will recover and move up today... or: 2. We may
have a gap n trap... I am voting for a mild recovery in the early
going at which point we should consider taking our money off the
table..
I would expect leadership and the best potential from: KLAC, QLGC,
NVLS.. I would look for minimal selling (less than 50 cents) and
nice buying... 65% chance of that happening... If we do sell down
unexpectedly watch ASKJ, YHOO and AMZN... they will probably dive
first...
TASR, MAGS and IPIX are doing well in the security arena...
Recovery was the operative word
as the QQQ moved up from the open at 34.92 to 35.38 and ended
the day near the high. KLAC, QLGC, NVLS all did as expected and
gave us plenty of upside potential... The nets did excellent..
ASKJ moved up +2.50.. we lost momentum with TASR, MAGS and IPIX
and they did not participate very well...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I continue to like this stock because if buyers come in..
this stock rises early with minimal selling.. the current gap
is up from 22.25 to 22.60... I would look for a climb off 22.40
to 22.50 and a move up to and over 23 if the market does recover...
LOW RISK
JNPR continues to hand over some
nice profits with low risk... It climbed off 22.44 and made it
to 23.... Nice trade...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: LTON
Sector: China Wireless
News: Reports strong 1Q .. upgrades..
Chart Snapshot: Recent IPO dropping from around 19 to yesterdays
low below 8 bucks..
Expectation: The current gap is up from 8.00 to 11.10 ... I would
expect some selling but its not really predictable... some good
news stocks sell down quite a bit and others don't... I feel the
upside can be over 12 so it is worth nabbing the bottom... Probably
will hold 10.50 if it intends to run over 12... MEDIUM RISK
This trade gapped up higher than
when I wrote the email so some adjusting was necessary.. I adjusted
it to hold 11 if it intended to make it to 12.. It sold down to
10.80 which put the upside target at less than 12 and it climbed
to 11.60...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: PSUN
Sector: Apparel Stores
News: Beat estimates..
Chart Snapshot: On a longer term downtrend since feb highs over
25...
Expectation: currently gapping up from 20.49 to 21.... the gap
is not very strong so we may see some selling to 20.60 to 20.80...
I think it would be worth a long position as it can go as high
as 21.50... LOW RISK
PSUN sold down much more than I
would have expected... Trying to go long around 21.50 was stopped...
It finally bottomed at 19.30, quite a few front runners... It
climbed a dollar...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 10, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking nasty this morning and we have very little
stock news. Nothing is moving much and its Monday.. We should
be looking for early buying and I have a few stocks I am going
to be watching: MAGS, TASR, RIMM, OSIP, YHOO and JNPR .. These
stocks should get early buying so if you wish to catch some early
momentum watch these stocks as they come off the early lows...
It seems the market has priced in the strong economical recovery
and now we may not get much action til we see lower prices...
Watch and React day!!
We did see some early buying after
which the market hit the skids. We ended with reasonable momentum
enough to encourage some overnight gappers. MAGS climbed 50 cents
from the open,,, TASR climbed 60 cents,,, RIMM 60 cents,, so the
buying was pretty minimal... The QQQ moved up from 34.58 to 34.90
before dropping down to 34.42 and climbing back to 34.90 and back
down to 34.50... Fairly narrow day but we ended with buying and
positive momo...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 7, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is absorbing the good jobs numbers.. First we had a
sell off on the likelihood of a rate hike then the futures started
a recovery.. Any way you look at it the economy is robust and
growing. We even saw 20K jobs in the manufacturing sector. I would
guess we will see early buying again and less of a mix...
Lets watch the action right up to the open and keep an eye on
the gaps.. If we start to see them disappear we will probably
get some selling before the buyers arrive and if they hold steady
or start to climb look for early buying with minimal selling.
Internets should lead us along with semis...
The Market took off early and it
appeared like it was going to rally. The QQQ moved from the open
at 35.10 to 35.63 and topped.. We then began to see signs of weakness
with some stocks moving down more than expected.. The QQQ dropped
back to just above the open around 35.13 and bounced again to
35.60... Then late in the session it dropped to new lows for the
day where it ended at 34.96... The early momentum was good enough
for nice profits so the day was decent even though not very predictable...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - Lets watch this stock today,, 22.80 should be close to
the bottom and it should climb to 23.50 if the market recovers
which I feel it will... LOW RISK
JNPR did very well moving from the
open at 22.80 up to 23.70... This stock continues to perform well...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: NVDA
Sector: Semiconductor
News: topped wall streets estimates by 2 cents..
Chart Snapshot: Climbing off a recent bottom at 20...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 21.91 to 22.60... I would
expect some selling to around 22.40 and a potential climb, if
the market does decently to the upside, to 23.....
NVDA did not sell down but climbed
to 23 right from the open...
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: VISG
Sector: Computer Software
News: order from dept of justice of 10.2 million initial order
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent low of 8 from the first
of May
Expectation: Currently gapping up from 9.16 to 10.88 ... I would
expect selling down to 10.50 and a potential rise over 11... LOW
RISK
VISG bottomed at 10.60 and climbed
to 11.25.. Good Trade...
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: VSTA
Sector: Specialized Health Services
News: lowers outlook below views
Chart Snapshot: fairly flat for the last month around 28..
Expectation: The current gap is down from 29.55 to 22... I will
be watching for pre open support... if I see none then I will
expect selling at the open but will do my best to nab the first
bottom which should be good for at least a dollar... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
VSTA continued to weaken as the
open approached but popped from the open from 20.70 to 21.80,
dropped to 20 then 19.72 for a total of 3 bottoms, before it climbed
to 21.10.. unusual action and tough to time...
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 5, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning and it seems
we are set to continue our upward momentum. We have seen two days
of minimal selling and good upward potential. The only concern
I have is the whippy action after the announcement yesterday which
indicated confusion on the part of the traders. I hope they have
things worked out this morning and we can continue a nice easy
climb..
Semis were in the lead but most of the action this morning is
with internets which tended to lag yesterday so if we do get any
unexpected downside action look for ASKJ to dive early... ISM
non-manuf numbers are coming out at 10 so be aware and ready to
jump out of long positions if the numbers are a suprise...
We saw another day of mixed selling
much like last week. I felt the selling was due to ARCA going
down at the open and traders feeling trapped at the unexpected
problem but we will never know for sure. Some stocks fell quite
a bit like JNPR and KLAC and others sold very little. Internets
did well, YHOO moved up from the open at 52.92 to 53.90, AMZN
did the same climbing from 43.98 to 45.10.. KLAC dropped from
43.30 at the open to 42.32 before bouncing back to 43.28... QLGC
was very narrow moving down 40 cents and up 40 cents.. NVLS did
much the same.. The overall market did fairly well, the QQQ moved
down from the open at 35.42 to 35.20 and climbed to 35.70...
LOW RISK:
JNPR - This stock has been rising very early for some good low
risk gains, so I will continue to play it.. The current gap is
up from 23.44 to 23.58.. We might see some profit taking which
can take it as low as 23.40 but I would expect this stock to rise
to 24... LOW RISK
JNPR moved down more than I expected
possibly due to the fact ARCA was down.. It dropped pre open and
opened up at my downside target at 23.40 and quickly moved down
to 22.90 and bounced to 23.50... ARCA being down and the quotes
being off saved us a stop and the bottom was good...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: IPXL
Sector: Drugs
News: Record revenues - first profitable quarter
Chart Snapshot: recent drop from 25 to 20 and bottomed...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 21 to 24.30... I would
expect some selling on this stock down to as low as 23.50 and
possible a bit under.. If this stock holds 24 it can climb over
25... If not it will probably only rise to 24.50 at the most....
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
IPXL moved down a bit under 24 and
climbed to 25.75... good upward action
_____________________________________________________
Symbol: TASR
Sector: Defense Products
News: 2 large orders from 2 police depts...
Chart Snapshot: Big fall from 62 down to 29 and climbing...
Expectation: This stock can move well so the upside potential
should be well worth the effort to catch the bottom... The gap
is currently up from 31.80 to 33.50... I would expect some profit
taking but if this stock begins to climb off 33 it can move over
35... MEDIUM RISK..
TASR only bounced 1 dollar off the
early bottom... It sold down from 33.90 to 32.30... then bounced
to 33.30... Not much momentum...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: WWCA
Sector: Wireless
News: Reaches profitability in the first Quarter...
Chart Snapshot: Long downtrend from February at 27 down to recent
lows just above 20...
Expectation: The current gap is up from 21.59 to 24.25.. This
stock can do well if it holds 23.80 and can go over 25... If it
falls under 23.80 it can go as low as 23 before a decent bounce
occurs... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
WWCA did really well... It held
23.80 climbing from 23.85 and went to 25.70..... Good momentum...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For May 4, 2004
___________________________________________________
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly positive this morning on very little
news. Earnings continue to come in nicely and the economy is doing
very well. We have an important fed meeting today and the market
should remain somewhat tame before the feds meet. The upward action
was good yesterday both up and down. The buyers came in early
and stuck around...
I am going to look for a repeat of early buying again today but
one day does not make a pattern so we need to exercise some caution.
JNPR performed well and is worth watching today for a low risk
trade.. Many times we see a pre fed rally and that can happen
today...
The Market is stabilizing and giving
us minimal selling at the open and adequate buying for some nice
profits. The action was put into overdrive as Greenspan and crew
decided to leave interest rates as they are but lean towards tightening
next time. The market liked that and imediately spiked up, then
spiked down, then spiked up again and then darn near made it back
down to where it was before the announcement. Scizophrenic traders.
We would up with some buying and an indication we would continue
the small uptrend.
LOW RISK:
JNPR - The current gap is up from 22.18 to 22.30 and this stock
can take off from 22.20.. I would expect it to hold 22 so that
would be your stop..I would expect at least a climb to 22.70 with
reasonable buying ... LOW RISK
JNPR did very well for us climbing
from 22.20 to 23.60 after the fed announcement.. The early action
was from 22.20 to 23 which was still very good momentum for a
low risk stock...
NEWS:
MVSN - beats estimates and guides higher,, The current gap is
up from 17.57 to 19.90 ... This stock can sell down to 19 before
climbing... If it holds 19.50 it can climb to 21 with moderate
buying in the general market... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MVSN gapped much higher than the
early 19.90... but the selling expected was about the same. It
opened up at 20.80, moved down to 20.40 and climbed to 22.90..
excellent momo...
GPRO - beats estimates and guides higher.. The current gap is
up from 34.11 to 36.13... The volume is very low and that makes
this trade tougher... It can move fast... It can also be a low
volume climber if it holds 35.80 and starts to climb... can go
to 37... MEDIUM RISK
GPRO sold down more than low volume
climbers usually do but the upward swing was impressive... It
opened up at 35.60 dropped to 34.90 and climbed to 38.20.. good
upside potential if you timed the bottom well....
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 30, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking reasonably happy but I am seeing some weakness
in some semi stocks, so that tells me all is not well. The current
action we have been seeing is selling down before the best bottoms
occur. For example MAGS sold down a dollar before climbing 1.40...
Its also important to pick the right stock because not all stocks
perform well. Our dumpers did very well yesterday and TARO was
the stock of the day climbing 10 bucks so we will watch BOBJ and
FDRY today most carefully..
We should be reaching a point at which value is compelling as
stocks have dropped quite a bit off the recent highs. SMH down
from 42 to just above 35 yesterday... We also have consumer confidence
and NAPM numbers due at 9:45 and 10... Pesonal income and spending
looked good so the consumer is still alive and well.
We have a very good chance of seeing early buying but the recent
pattern has been selling first then pick out bottoms so that is
what we will have to go with.. It may change today and minimal
selling could occur... The action has been mixed so pay attention
and go with the flow!! Shorting the highs will still be something
we will wish to do as well if we can get a good read on the action...
Indeed not all was well with the
market and it decided to go south again. The QQQ made a 15 cent
climb before slowly falling from 35.75 to 34.80 where it ended
the day. It seems the market is worried about rate hikes and what
the rising interest rates might do to our economic recovery. The
action was mixed again, for example KLAC popped a dollar before
dropping, QLGC dropped with no pop at all, NVLS dropped 60 cents
and climbed 60 cents.. AMZN dropped a dollar then climbed 80 cents,
YHOO dropped from 54.40 to 50.90 then climbed to 52.30.. Very
mixed and difficult to time due to the lack of uniformity... Most
of the action was down so shorting was a good idea if you could
find the tops.. Some topped right at the open... some later..
difficult at best..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - When buyers come in this stock has done well so I will
be watching it today... It is currently gapping up from 22.95
to 23... I will be looking for 22.80 to hold and it to climb early
to 23.50... LOW RISK
JNPR dropped much more than I expected
moving down from 23 to 21.90 before climbing to 22.60.. tough
to time..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: ERTS
Sector: Multimedia and graphics software
News: Good earnings but guiding lower for the next quarter
Chart Snapshot: Dropping with the market from a recent high around
55 to yesterdays low at just under 49...
Expectation: This stock is gapping up from 49.95 to 51.36... Good
News/bad news should cause some selling at the open... How much
is unpredictable as we saw with MACR yesterday... I am guessing
we will probably see this stock drop to 50.50 at least where I
would look for a long position if the market looks OK at the time...
Can move up to 52.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
50.50 was a pretty good guess as
the stock dropped from 51.50 to 50.30 and climbed to 52.30, then
dropped again to 50.30.. Good potential long and short..... good
Trade.!!!
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: FDRY
Sector: Computer Hardware
News: Missed expectations
Chart Snapshot: Moving down from a recent high at just over 19..
Expectation: Gapping down from 14.15 to 10.85 ... We need to watch
for pre open support... It can drop from the open but I will be
looking for a good first bottom anywhere from 10 to 10.50... LOW
TO MEDIUM RISK
FDRY took off at 10.75 at the open
and moved up to 11.75... tough to catch trades that move up right
away...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: BOBJ
Sector: Business Software
News: Missed expectations
Chart Snapshot: Flat around 28 from the middle of March...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 28.58 to 23.50.. I am
not seeing alot of support yet so I will be watching it after
the open around 23.. First bottom should be good so its worth
an early entry.... It should move up and over 24... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
This stock made multiple bottoms
which means trying it early was a stopper... It hit 5 bottoms
in about 3 hours of trading which is unusual.. It finally bottomed
at 21.20 and climbed to 22.20... Not very good for a multi bottom
dumper... tough action
______________________________________________________
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 29, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
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taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not very happy this morning as we remain locked
in a downtrend from the recent high. The semis were in the lead
yesterday and if we get buying early we should see them climb.
What has been occurring lately is the strong stocks will climb
early with minimal selling and the weak ones will drop. ASKJ is
still the biggest dropper when sellers hit... Internets have been
hot and cold lately..
We saw some early buying before
the market hit the skids. Many stocks provided adequate gains
and we did our best reading the action. We caught some nice early
trades, MAGS being one. Picking the right stock is the key to
success because not all stocks do well... KLAC dropped a dollar
and climbed 80 cents.. QLGC climbed 70 cents then dropped 80 cents
then popped for 80 cents... NVLS dropped 90 cents then climbed
50 cents... very mixed behavior.. ASKJ popped 80 cents before
dropping a dollar and climbing 1.40.. AMZN dropped a dollar then
climbed a dollar.. YHOO dropped 1.20 then climbed 1.20... MAGS
dropped a dollar and climbed 1.40... The QQQ dropped 25 cents
from 36.10 to 35.85 then climbed 50 cents to 36.30 before a long
drop to 35.30, shorters were happy. Not very uniform trading..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - If you want to jump in on a potential early move up, I
like JNPR for a safe trade.. It is gapping down and should get
early upward action if we get any buying at all... Yesterday it
climbed a dollar off 24.... can do the same today... LOW RISK
JNPR climbed 50 cents before topping
and moving down from 24.55 to 22.40... Not bad on the upside for
a safe trade but much better if one was able to time the highs
and go short...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: MACR
Sector: software
News: beat views, guided higher
Chart Snapshot: flat for the last 6 months.. No one cares about
this stock
Expectation: It is gapping up from 18.21 to 21.33... Its worth
a short as it should drop under 21... If it holds 21 it can move
up to 22.. Lately the selling action on news stocks has been mixed
sooo its not real predictable.. LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MACR dropped as expected moving
to 20.55 and the upside was really much stronger than I expected
moving up from 20.55 to 22.20 especially on such a big drop in
the general market...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: TARO
Sector: Drugs
News: Missed expectations
Chart Snapshot: downtrending from a recent high at 65...
Expectation: The current gap is down from 62.14 to 47.40.. So
far I don't see much support... I will be watching for it and
ready to jump on the first bottom.. remember the stronger climbers
do so early so it will take some focus to jump on board... I am
guessing we will see a bottom around 47... MEDIUM RISK
TARO was the big mover of the day..
It kept dropping pre open and finally opened at 45.10 and kept
going down til it hit 41.20 which was difficult for me to read..
I was looking for a bottom at around 44 but it never paused there,
just kept going south til just above 41... The climb was spectacular
as it moved from 41.20 to 50.20... excellent momo...
______________________________________________________
Symbol: SOHU
Sector: china-net
News: missed expectations
Chart Snapshot: big downtrend from 40 in January to yesterdays
low of 19.20... Can easily bottom today..
Expectation: This has been a formerly hot stock... It is gapping
down from 19.20 to 17.09... 15 would be a dumper and most predictable
but this stock should climb early since it has been building value
for some time... I would guess it will climb over 18... Watch
for support pre open and look for a good first bottom... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK
SOHU did as expected only moving
down about 25 cents from the open price, climbing off 16.80 and
moving over 18 to 18.70... excellent momentum..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 27, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking flat this morning and once again it is not
tipping its hand this morning. We have consumer confidence at
10 as well as existing home sales numbers.. We will need to see
selling before we commit to any bottoms and the internets and
biotechs will be our best bets. AMZN, YHOO, AMGN,ABGX, OSIP, should
be worth watching and have the best swings. We should also see
some action with security stocks, TASR, IPIX, MAGS...
The action is not predictable today and I will be watching the
semis as well for any signs of buyers entering. Yesterday they
failed to bounce all day long so I would look for shorts with
any bounce at all... KLAC, QLGC, NVLS,... It might be a very boring
day.... "watch and react"
The action was difficult to read
once again and basically we had to wait for the sellers to take
stocks down sufficient to give us good bottoms. The QQQ dropped
from the open at 36.95 to 36.85 then climbed to 37.15 and then
stayed there for about 4 hours before dropping to 36.70.. Most
of the selling was attributed to Iraq news. The semis actually
did better in the early going but the nets picked up later.. AMZN
climbed after 2 hours of doing nothing from 46.80 to 48.60.. YHOO
climbed from 56.60 to 58.20.. AMGN and ABGX also did well climbing
a dollar.. Another picky market..
NEWS:
IMCL - Swings to 1Q profit on erbitux... The current gap is up
from 73.09 to 81.. I would expect selling down to around 79 to
80 before we see an active bottom... Its not very predictable
on the downside... but it should climb as much as +4 off the bottom...
MEDIUM TO HIGH RISK
IMCL dropped to 74.30 before buyers
came in.. It dropped from the 81 gap and opened at 78.50 so the
selling was big but the climb was +3.. Tough to trade...
FWHT - 1Q net rose 41% ... The current gap is up from 22.50 to
26.50.. I would expect to see selling down to 25 to 25.50 at least...
The buying is not really predictable unless the market climbs
nicely in which case this stock can climb back up to 26.50...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
FWHT was a nice short and did moved
down below 25... It went down to 22.90 before bouncing back up
to 24.90.. Good Short...
BLUD - approval of a blood transfusion instrument,,, mediocre
story.. The stock is gapping up from 21.81 to 27.50.. I would
expect this stock to drop to as low as 26.. the gap is excessive
for the story and I would hesitate to go long.... if it holds
27 and climbs it can be a low volume climber so be ready to jump
out... MEDIUM RISK
BLUD dropped to 25 before gaining
traction and moving up to 28.80... very good downward and upward
action... The upward action was a surprise after dropping so much...
CAMP - Earnings below consensus - Missed by 4 Cents... The current
gap is down from 13.92 to 10... It has been under 10 so it seems
support is around 9.80... I think this stock would be worth a
long position off the first bottom which should be from 9.50 to
10... I will be watching it for support, so far there is very
little... MEDIUM RISK
Support came at 9.70 and it climbed
to 10.40.... so so momentum...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 26, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not tipping its hand today and its going to be tough
reading the momentum after Fridays narrow sleeper. We don't have
any real economic data today other than the new home sales at
10 which should be a yawner. We have no real earnings expected
either. We will need to see some selling before we commit to any
active bottoms because of the iffy momo today. I will be watching
key stocks for movement today and try to identify the action.
KLAC, QLGC, NVLS, AMZN, YHOO will probably give us a good idea
of what the market intends to do...
I am still seeing some action with the security stocks and they
are worth watching... TASR of course should provide at least a
4 dollar swing off the early low.. MAGS, TBUS, IPIX ... Tough
to say where these stocks will bottom... watch and react
The big news today are cancer stocks beginning with OSIP (nearly
a double up from 38.14 to 80 and still climbing) IMCL, DNA, ABGX
sympathy moves.. I have no idea what these stocks will do... ABGX
can run off the first bottom due to OSIP greed... OSIP has favorable
phase 3 results for Tarceva for lung cancer, first drug shown
to be effective...
It was a day to be picky as some
stocks bounced off the bottoms and some did not. The internets
and security stocks did well but semis and other techs did not.
AMZN climbed early with minimal selling off 46.18 up to 47.70..
YHOO sold down 40 cents and climbed +2.20... EBAY climbed over
+2 also... IPIX did very well for a small stock climbing from
7.80 to 9.30, +1.50... MAGS dropped a dollar and climbed +2.90..
The biotechs did very well with OSIP in the lead. I thought OSIP
could reach 100 and indeed it almost did. It climbed from 76.90
to 99. We were able to catch ABGX off the bottom for a nice gain.
The kiddies had a new toy and played in their sand box.. The QQQ
made a small climb from 37.18 to 37.28 then dropped all day long
down to as low as 36.67... Not a good day for the overall market..
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: JDAS
Sector: software
News: MSFT multi year strategic alliance
Chart Snapshot: Pretty flat at 14 since last March..
Expectation: With the diversity of trading we saw on Friday its
tough to say how much this stock will move both up and down...
The current gap is up from 14.76 to 15.30.. I would guess this
stock can bottom off 15 and climb as high as 15.50... LOW RISK
JDAS climbed from 15.12 to 15.55
which was very close to our target. It dipped down to 14.90 so
shorting was profitable as well... Good Trade
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 23, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Futures are up nicely this morning and we are being boosted
mostly on news. News stocks are gapping nicely BUT I have quite
a few stocks not gapping up this morning so once again the selling
looks mixed. Yesterday it was tough to follow as some stocks sold
down much more than others but buyers came in and lifted most
of the boats... I am going to look for selling at the open and
try my best to pick up the best bottoms. Internets were in the
lead yesterday along with semis so we should keep an eye on YHOO,
EBAY, KLAC, QLGC, NVLS...
We should be watching the selling action on those stocks that
climbed the most yesterday like EBAY... Also watch ASKJ and NVLS
as it seems that whenever we get selling these two go down first
and most... We have two days in a row of upward action and might
have a day of rest...
A day of rest was a good way to
describe Fridays action. We did not go up much or down much. The
QQQ swung from an open around 37.08 to 36.95 and up to 37.22 all
day long... Very narrow and a real yawner.. The QQQ ended up near
37.20 so this was a moderate positive momentum finish.. YHOO fell
over a dollar before making a modest bottom and an 80 cent climb,
EBAY climbed from the open 1.40 before dropping in mixed action...
KLAC climbed 90 cents then dropped 1.20.. QLGC climbed 50 cents
before dropping.. NVLS climbed 50 cents before dropping so you
can quickly see just how mixed up the trading was. Tough Trading...
TASR gave us 6 bucks in potential so it continues to swing well
especially considering the day..
NEWS:
MSFT, GILD, BRCM - All of these stocks are up on beating expectations
... The selling is not very predictable because we are in an early
market direction change and yesterday was so strong. We have a
lot of quick profits and it remains to be seen how much selling
will occur before buyers come in again...
MSFT climbed 30 cents and died,
GILD dropped 2.50 and popped 1.50 then hit the skids.. BRCM popped
1.50 before selling down ending at the low... Very mixed trading
and difficult to follow...
AMZN - Amazon reported strong numbers but the French are investigating
is DVD sales so it is gapping down... I would expect this stock
to recover... It is gapping down from 48.86 to 46.48... We should
be looking for a bottom early anywhere from around 46 as it can
climb to 48... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK.
The early bottom occurred at 45.50
and it climbed to 46.85... Not too bad for a narrow day...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 22, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Numbers this morning was received by selling then popping...
It seems the market is a bit confused and volatile today. We are
also in a yo-yo pattern. Monday the market was UP, Tuesday DOWN,
Wednesday UP although many techs ended the day at or near the
lows of the session. We also have bookings problems with KLAC
which can weigh down the semis today.
Yesterday we saw stocks drop then pop and we may see a repeat
although the predictability is not as high as I would like to
see. If the market is going to do well today we should see KLAC
recover early and it would be one to watch for a first bottom
long position. It is possible to climb +2 off the first bottom...
The Market did very well climbing
all day long. The QQQ took off from 36 and never looked back making
it all the way up to 37.. Going long for any reason was a profitable
thing to do. Luckily we caught some stocks that were lagging as
the buyers came in and were able to enjoy the upward action. Most
notably was NVLS if you would like to review a one minute chart.
KLAC was a very good indicator moving up early from 44.50 to 47.20,
+2.70...
NEWS:
STKR - Provides more information regarding their contract... this
news is somewhat stale but daytraders are nailing STKR pre open
and so we should watch it for action... It should sell down before
bottoming and just how much is uncertain.. It is currently gapping
up from 3.17 to 5.01.. I would watch for a bottom around 4.50
but if it holds 4.80 and begins to climb it can run to 6 and over...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
STKR dropped pre open to 4.80 and
dropped all day long with no real bounces... The story was indeed
stale and the stock dropped all the way down to 3.40... One of
the very few stocks that did not climb..
NXTL - Strong 1Q ,, The current gap is up from 24.80 to 25.60..
I would look for a bottom around 25.30 to 25.40 and a climb to
26... LOW RISK
NXTL dropped pre open to 25.20 and
moved down more than I would have expected to 24.70 and climbed
to 25.60...
EBAY - Profits double, outlook raised,,, Good earnings report...
The current gap is up from 74.78 to 77.30.. I would expect to
see this stock sell down to around 76.50 and climb to 78 if the
market has upward momentum like we have seen in the early going
lately.... MEDIUM RISK
EBAY climbed pre open to 77.80,
dropped to 77.40 and took off making it all the way to 83.. excellent
momentum... The selling action was mixed and tough to follow but
the buying more than made up for it by providing excellent upward
potential...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 21, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
We were fortunate to get some early buying yesterday which is
what we expected. Taking the early gains was a good idea because
the market hit the skids and did a 180 turn from the day before
ending down. QQQ fell from 36.80 to 35.80... This morning MOT
earnings is giving us a boost and the telecom stocks are doing
the best. QCOM and ERICY are gapping up nicely as is MOT.. We
may see some early buying but the time and amount is not predictable..
I will be watching key stocks to try to figure out the action
so its another "watch and react" day.
TASR is gapping down about 4 dollars and should have a good first
bottom, not predictable so it will need to be watched closely.
If we don't see pre open support it will probably dive from the
open..
TASR was the story of the day dropping
to 74 where we caught the bottom and watched it really go... I
was predicting over 80 at the time and the stock went to 91.93
... Excellent Momentum... The general market dropped from the
open then offerred some upward momentum.. The QQQ opened around
35.92 dropped to 35.68 then climbed to 36.08 before topping and
dropping again..
NEWS:
AVAN - Defense contract and earnings,, Gapping up from 2.45 to
2.85... This stock can run to 3 and over so I would consider it
a long around 2.60... LOW RISK
AVAN dropped a bit under 2.60 to
bottom at 2.53 where it was called a long with 20 cents in potential...
It made it as high as 2.73 before dropping... not too bad.. I
would have liked to see 3 but not that many daytraders were interested..
CECO - Upping guidance,,, Gapping up from 62.50 to 67... The selling
is not predictable but 67 is excessive so I would expect this
stock to fall.. Can go as low as 65 before gaining some traction...
MEDIUM RISK
CECO popped from the open moving
from 66.80 to 69.90 before selling down to my target at 65.. It
then made a very nice climb from 65 to 70.90... excellent momentum,
more than I had expected...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 19, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
On Thursday the QQQ dropped 60 cents before buyers came in late
in the day and on Friday it dropped 40 cents before buyers came
in which took place 1/2 hour after the open. This means that the
market is not willing to buy until value is seen and stocks drop
sufficiently to entice buyers. We should be looking for selling
to occur prior to going long.
Today the market is looking slightly on the negative side so I
would not expect buying until we get some selling again.
Today we saw a 20 cent drop before
buyers came in so the selling in the last three days have decreased
exponentially. Some of the best performers were security stocks.
IPIX dropped about a dollar then climbed almost 3.00 ... MAGS
climbed right from the open about +4... TBUS put in another stellar
performance climbing from 6.70 to 15.70.... The QQQ climbed from
35.98 to 36.55 and we ended the day at the sessions high. Semis
and Nets did very well as did most sectors..
LOW RISK:
NVDA - After the selling ended NVDA bounced nicely from 23.60
up to 24.30... I would watch this one for a low risk easy trade..
It is currently gapping flat at 23.60... It can bottom anywhere
above 23... it can bounce around 50 cents... LOW RISK
NVDA dropped about 40 cents from
23.60 to 23.20 and climbed back up to 23.70.. good trade!!!
NEWS:
FLSH - Increases guidance for 1Q... This stock has dropped dramatically
in the last session from 22 down to 19... It is currently gapping
up from 19.01 to 20.27 ... I would expect this stock to move up
from 19.80 if it intends to make it over 21 which is the potential...
LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
FLSH was slow going but did very
well moving up from 19.80 to 21.20... excellent Trade..
ASKJ - two upgrades ( T Weisel and Piper Jaffray) to outperform..
The current gap is up from 36.11 to 37.70.. I would expect this
stock to climb off 37 to 37.40 and go over 38.... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
ASKJ dropped to 37.30 and climbed
to 40... another excellent trade!!!
MOSY - Synopsis terminates merger agreement - The stock is gapping
down from 12.23 to 6.75.. I think the first bottom is worth persuing...
I would guess it will bottom off 6.50... So far there is no support
so watch for buying pre open... if we see none it will probably
dive at the open... watch and react... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
MOSY put in a first bottom at 6.90
after getting pre open support and opening above 7... It climbed
from 6.90 to 7.80 ... good trade..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 16, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not tipping its hand this morning and looks rather
flat... some stocks are gapping down slightly and some up slightly.
Yesterday the market dropped almost all day long then bounced
and may do the same today.. I am going to watch for early tops
and go short again today but keep an eye out for value buying
as stocks decline. We should get action once again with the security
stocks and ABIX which is a runner to 18 so far from the day before
yesterdays price of 5 bucks on RapidCool news.
We have some weak stocks based on disappointing earnings which
will probably provide us with the best opportunity off the first
bottoms after the open... LEXR, IPIX, DCLK... my favorite is DCLK,
can go up +2 once the sellers get done.. Sorry but its another
"watch and wait and react" day.. Keep your powder dry...
I would expect the market to end in the red today due to nervousness
over terrorist news over the week end... should be a shorters
day..
Going short early was a good idea
as the QQQ fell from 36.20 down to 36.80 where value was found
and buyers slowly came in. The QQQ then bounced up to 36.30 and
provided decent shorts and fell to just under 36 where we finished
the day, a fairly narrow range. ABIX was a short over 20 and wound
up halting at around 18 which should fall quite a bit once it
reopens.. LEXR did not bounce much at all.. DCLK only bounced
75 cents but made two bottoms.. IPIX did the best moving from
12.70 to 14.70...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 15, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is opening a bit on the positive side this morning.
Jobless claims increased but it did not spook the market. I saw
enough early buying yesterday to give me an upward bias on todays
action. I think we will see early buying with the internets leading
us up and the semis following closely. KLAC, QLGC should sell
down about 30 cents and climb a dollar... YHOO and AMZN should
do the same but climb over a dollar for a bit more upward momentum.
For a low risk trade look for NVDA to drop about 20 cents and
then climb 75 cents...
The security stocks are jumping again today but the selling pressure
is not predictable. They can outperform the market today though
and should be worth persuing. My favorites are IPIX, MACE and
MAGS...
We also have SNDK gapping down on disappointing guidance.. Their
earnings beat by 2 cents and revs were up nicely but traders are
not happy.. TTWO did very well off the first bottom so I would
look for the same type of upward momentum with SNDK... My guess
is +2 off the early low... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
Another day of slow trading. The
QQQ dropped from an early high of 36.82 for 4 1/2 hours until
it hit bottom at 36.02 and bounced to 36.43.. Strange day in which
you had to stay focused all day long... KLAC bounced 70 cents
in the early going and dropped 2.50, QLGC failed to bounce at
all dropping from the oen price of 31.20 to 30 with a couple of
50 cent bounces along the way.. YHOO dropped 60 cents and bounced
60 cents.. AMZN did much better moving down 50 cents and bouncing
1.20.. The security stocks provided us with some nice early gains
as well as shorts... IPIX dropped from 14.70 to 13.80 then climbed
to 17.... MACE climbed straight up from 7.40 to 9.20.. MAGS climbed
straight up from 29 to 31..
SNDK moved up from a first bottom at 28.20 to 29.20 a bit disappointing...
AAPL - Earnings beat expectations... The current gap is up from
26.64 to 29.19... This gap is sucking up all the potential...
It is a short above 29 and I expect it to fall to 28 to 28.50..
I would not go long until I saw it near 28... should be a slow
trade... LOW RISK
AAPL opened below 29 and provided
a decent short as it climbed over to 29.50 dropping to 28.30 and
climbed again to 29.50.. good trade...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 14, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not very happy this morning after the CPI numbers
are indicating inflationary pressures. We are seeing worry over
rate hikes which can put the skids on our economic recovery. The
Market will adjust valuation accordingly and as such we will probably
go south until traders feel stocks are worth buying again. When
and where that occurs is uncertain and we will have to go on "wait
and watch" mode..
Yesterday was dismal for longs and I am not sure what we might
expect today. INTC's earnings did not help us and its not certain
if we would climb even if the numbers were a blow out. I will
be watching the internets and semis today for general leadership..
I will also be looking for the security stocks to swing the best,
starting with VISG, MAGS and MACE... If we get any action these
stocks should do well but they are unpredictable..
If we get any pops at all... we should be looking to short again
today...
KLAC and QLGC did well off the first
bottoms and we saw minimal selling. They climbed about a dollar
before topping with the market. AMZN climbed 1.60, YHOO did about
the same so the internets were stronger than the semis. The security
stocks were mixed but the swings were good if you could time them.
The QQQ topped after climbing for about an hour and a half and
we were fortunate to catch the high and go short. It climbed from
36.37 to 36.94 and then dropped for 4 1/2 hours to 36.44 .....
NVDA performed well again as buyers came back causing the stock
to move from the open at 25.50 down to 25.20 then climbing to
26.22.... It bears watching again..
MAXM - FDA OK for Ceplene treatment protocol... The stock is gapping
up from 8.53 to 9.25... I would short it around 9.50 and look
for it to fall under 9....LOW RISK
MAXM darn near nailed the high expected
around 9.48 and dropped to 9 in the early going and hit 8.80 later
in the day... Patience was needed to extract the full potential
but it was a good short...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 13, 2004
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is happy today after the retail sales numbers came
in stronger than expected. The consumer is alive and well and
spending the money they are receiving from refinancing their homes..
Low interest rates, stable jobs, Hot real estate markets are helping
the economy hit on all cylinders!!! If we can get Iraq to stabilize
the market can take off and break out over the previous highs
set in January.
The Market has been selling down slowly on good news gapper up
days, so I would not be surprised to see that occur again today.
We will have to watch key stocks such as the internets, AMZN,
EBAY, YHOO... KLAC and QCOM were fairly strong yesterday and will
probably be two key players should the market rally today.
The hot stocks are the security stocks but most are under pressure
with profit taking. I would watch them for selling down and should
bounce at some point, not predictable though.. We are in a runner
type market and anything can move up big at any time... MAGS,
IPIX,TBUS and MSGI are under pressure this morning... Looks like
profit taking day for the security sector.. my best performers
are MACE and VISG and they can continue to run.. VISG has fresh
news so it may well be the best performer today..
The Market hit the skids early and
never got off its duff. Luckily we saw QCOM and NVLS sell down
more than expected and were able to change directions and go short.
The security stocks were looking weak prior to the open and the
highs were considered for shorters. MAGS made a terrific run off
the bottom from 27.70 to 34.70 then fell back to end around 28,
quite the swinger... The QQQ slid from 37.35 to 36.55..
MACE - This stock can continue to run... Its up pretty big from
yesterday and the sector is getting profit taking pressure...
It is currently gapping up from 8 to 10.14.. If this stock is
going to run it will probably do so off 9.70 to 9.80 and it can
climb to 12 or higher... MEDIUM RISK
MACE made its move pre open from
10.14 to open near 13 and run to 14.70 before topping... The trade
would have had to be done prior to the open which is a toughie
for most traders... A short was suggested and it fell like a rock
under 10...
NEWS:
VISG - Viisage Forms Partnerships with Bosch Security Systems
and Oracle Surveillance Systems, Ltd. to Expand Identity Solution
Capabilities... The current gap is up from 10.70 to 14.06.. if
this stock intends to run it will hold 13.50 as the first bottom
and move up early and it can go to 18 if it runs... LOW TO MEDIUM
RISK
VISG went under 13.50 and did not
run... It did have a good bottom at 12.20 and climbed to 13.80..
tough to guess where the bottom would occur..
NVLS - beat expectations ... The gap is up from 34.64 to 35.28..
This stock is capable of reaching 36 and can go over... I am guessing
we will see the bottom around 35... If she goes under 35 I would
be surprised and would be a key indication the market is not strong
today... LOW RISK
NVLS participated with the market
and never received any buying... It opened at around 35 and quickly
took a dive with minimal bounces.. disappointing day for most
longs...
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 8, 2004
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Pre-market Commentary
The Market is very happy today after good earnings from Yahoo..
RIMM also did well after an initial negative reaction. This morning
we have jobless claims down more than expected which is another
boost. We should see some selling at the open on the gaps up but
I don't think it will be much... I would look for early bottoms
but I would take the money off the table due to the potential
of traders jumping out of positions going into the religious holiday
and the potential of terrorist activity at home and abroad...
We should see action with MAGS, TASR, YHOO... I am guessing these
stocks will do the best for potential swings.. Remember we have
a holiday trading environment which can skew things and throw
us a slow curve so be on your toes..
The early buying was very dependent
on which stock you picked. MAGS climbed from 36.80 to 40.10 for
another day of good momentum. TASR did the opposite falling from
the open around 2 dollars and only moving up about +1. YHOO dropped
a dollar before climbing the same. The QQQ dropped from the open
at 37.40 and sold off most of the day which was expected but near
the end buyers came in and it moved from a daily bottom at 36.75
to 37.. not real great but more than I expected..
LOW RISK:
JNPR - I liked the fact that JNPR did not sell down very much
yesterday and seems to be participating in the market buying if
and when it comes in... The current gap is up from 27.21 to 27.75...
I would expect selling down to around 27.50 and a potential climb
to 26... LOW RISK
JNPR dropped to 27.55 and climbed
to 27.75, well shy of my 26.. It dropped to 27.40 and held that
all day long but only made it as high as 27.60... Buyers were
reticent to move into stocks prior to the 3 day holiday week end...
NEWS:
YHOO - The current gap is up from 48.35 to 55.05.. I would expect
selling down to at least 54 but due to the holiday it may not
be very predictable.. I think it can go as high as 56 so I would
try to catch the bottom... MEDIUM RISK
YHOO dropped to 54.80 and moved
up to 56.20.. The stock gapped up higher than when I wrote the
email but sold down about as much as I expected.. It actually
opened at 55.70 and dropped to 54.80 then climbed... Good Trade
PMTC - Raises Guidance,, The current gap is up from 4.85 to 5.30...
I would look for a bottom around 5.10 and a potential climb to
5.50.. remember we have some of these cheapies doing excellent
and they are easy to trade... worth a shot... LOW RISK
PMTC bottomed at 5.08 and climbed
to 5.42.. Not bad for a cheapie...
===============================================================
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 7, 2004
___________________________________________________
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on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
We have a flat looking market and yesterday buyers were far and
few between... As we approach the Holiday week end it should get
slower and lower so the action today is not going to be very predictable.
News stocks continue to do very well and TASR and MAGS are providing
plenty of action for those who can time them.
Keep a close eye on cheapie stocks with news. I have seen quite
a bit of daytrading momentum and very nice climbs. Yesterday I
saw some very nice action with: FVCX and TBUS.. Today we have
news with, SIRI, TXCC and IDEV... Any of these cheapies can go
over my upside targets if daytraders jump on them...
The market was narrow and listless
as traders exit for the holiday week end. The QQQ swung from 36.70
to 37.10 from the low to the high which came late in the day..
TASR moved from 93 to over 100... MAGS really climbed nicely from
25.75 to 32.50... good action.. Our cheapies with news, SIRI,
TXCC, and IDEV were all disappointing.. tough to say where the
daytraders will strike next but each one was very safe and easy
to trade even though they had very little momo...
SIRI - Daimler-Chrysler bundling 1 yr SIRI subscription .. The
stock is up from 3.89 to 4.17... This stock should move up off
4 and go as high as 4.50.. LOW RISK
TXCC - upping guidance - the stock is gapping up from 2.55 to
3.01... I would look for a bottom at 2.80 and a potential climb
to 3.20 to 3.50.. LOW RISK
IDEV - Licensing agreement - The current gap is up from 6.05 to
6.60.. I would look for a bottom at 6.40 and expect the potential
to be as high as 7.. LOW RISK
===============================================================
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 5, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
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___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is looking slightly negative to flat. We are trading
a holiday shortened week and it might be slow and narrow as many
traders like to take the week off. We saw some pretty significant
selling on Friday before the buyers came in slowly. I am going
to watch and see what occurs today and not develope any general
expectations.
We are losing the TASR momentum due to a negative story Dan Rather
is supposed to air tonight regarding deaths by Tasers and the
stock is gapping down.. I would expect value to be reached at
some point but it will be tough to guess where buyers will find
it...
The Market traded in a very tight
range for most of the day. The selling was fairly minimal and
buying was slow. The QQQ climbed from the open from 37 up to 37.20
and dropped back to just above 37 then slowly lifted most of the
day to end around 37.45.. Pretty boring but overall the bulls
took the day.. TASR gapped down and popped +4 from the open...
NVDA did very well again moving from 26.18 to 27.30 with no selling
at the open...
NEWS:
SEBL - raised guidance... Currently gapping up from 12.29 to 12.86
... We should see this stock sell down to at least 12.50 where
it should be a pretty low risk trade and can climb to 13 if the
market does well for the bulls.. LOW RISK
SEBL was a dog and fell most of
the day with one 20 cent bounce... stinky trade..
ORCL - Upgraded.. The current gap is up from 12.58 to 12.68...
This stock should climb from 12.60 and can go as high as 13...
LOW RISK
ORCL climbed from 12.55 and made
it as high as 12.85...
=============================================================
Early
Trades Advisory
For April 1, 2004
___________________________________________________
MTrader was the first "trading education chat-room"
on the net, and we are proud that education remains our focus
still today. Classes are taught daily, and trading techniques
taught interactively as they relate to the calls and commentary
given throughout the trading day. For a FREE WEEK trial go to
http://www.mtrader.com
___________________________________________________
Pre-market Commentary
The Market is not tipping its hand this morning as to what it
intends to do. Yesterday we stayed fairly flat until numbers came
in and we sold down. My active stocks that are looking strong
are: TASR, MAGS, and MAMA.. I don't think the action will be predictable
but basically I am expecting them to sell down before climbing.
It would be worth going after the first bottoms as they can climb
multi dollars...
We have construction spending and ISM numbers at 10.... could
shake us up... who knows.. watch and react...
The Market started out flat and
slow until the numbers came in and looked pretty good.. The QQQ
started at 35.80 and after the numbers came in climbed to 36.22
for a 40 cent swing.. The QQQ ended the day in the green and it
seemed the market was willing to rally should the jobs number
be OK on Friday. TASR did well moving from 78.15 when the numbers
came out to 82.60.. MAGS lost its momentum and died all day long...
MAMA did very well moving up before the numbers hit from 14.20
to 16.80.. Internets were in the lead again, AMZN moving up all
day long from 43.30 to 44.80... Semis did well with the exception
of QLGC which is still dying due to negative news. It should join
the pack soon though as the market forgives its faults..
LOW RISK
NVDA - Lets watch NVDA again and only expect about 40 to 50 cents
today... the current gap is up from 26.40 to 26.46... Look for
a bottom around 26.20 this morning and a climb to 26.60 depending
on the numbers at 10... If we do sell down again look for an active
bottom...
NVDA did well moving up from 26.22
to 26.92.. It took a dive later on some negative news.. too bad
because it may kill the excellent momo we have seen lately. The
risk is raised...
___________________________________________________
Gainers and Positive News Stocks:
Symbol: ERICY
Sector: telecom
News: positive forward going comments
Chart Snapshot: climbing off a recent bottom just above 24.. Narrow
ranges
Expectation: The current gap is up from 27.76 to 30.15 .. I would
expect selling down to as low as 29 and can go lower... I feel
the gap is excessive for the story.... LOW TO MEDIUM RISK
ERICY did not quite drop as much
as I thought but did OK.. moving down from 30 to 29.50.. safe
trade...
_____________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
Dumpers and Negative News Stocks:
Symbol: SUPG
Sector: Drug manuf
News: severe adverse side effects ,, phase 3 for Dacogen
Chart Snapshot: big climb in March from 6 to 14 recently...
Expectation: the current gap is down from 12.80 to 9.13... QLGC
did awful yesterday so lets watch this one and treat all the bottoms
like scalps... I am guessing we will see a bottom around 8.50
to 8.80... I will be watching for pre market support... LOW TO
MEDIUM RISK
SUPG did nicely off the first bottom
at 8.50 climbing to 9.40... good trade...
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